Sickels on Hamilton
John Sickels has a post entitled “Making Sense of Josh Hamilton.” I’d love to see someone explain to me how this has worked out.
the thing that stands out is the platoon difference in his BB/K/AB ratio. As long as the Reds limit his exposure to lefthanded pitching, I think he should be able to remain effective. My guess is that he’ll settle into the .240-.250 range with good power as the season progresses.
Considering that he is coming to the majors with only 23 games of experience above A-ball and several years of rust on his resume, this is remarkable performance….
It’s a remarkable story, like something out of a movie, and I have no idea how the story ends.
They’re doing a community projection for Hamilton, so pop over and check it out - or add your own projection. Through midnight PDT, I think the numbers have been too conservative - 18 HRs? That’s only 12 more over 5 months.
May 1st, 2007 at 10:12 am
I was purposefully very pessimistic in my projection - I don’t want to have any room for disappointment whatsoever when reviewing his season.
I also made the point - which I haven’t seen anyone make - that in his circumstances, he’s going to be very vulnerable to injury and, for lack of a better word, ‘exhaustion.’ The only time he even approached a full season was 391 at bats, and that career-high playing time occurred back in 2000. His next highest total was just 211 AB.
I believe that we’re likely to see a couple things. One, a major slump towards the end of the season as he gets tired; maybe even for the entire second half a la 2006 Ross. Two, I think we’ll see some stress-related injuries like the shinsplints in spring training. I note that his minor-league trial last season ended in short order when he had to have knee surgery.
May 1st, 2007 at 12:13 pm
i won’t be dissappointed in hamilton’s season unless he falls off the wagon, and i hope that his family, friends, teammates, coaches and fans can all help him avoid that.
i think he’ll hit close to .300, with 25+ HRs and a strong walk rate. but that almost doesn’t matter from a reds standpoint, because if he can stay clean and healthy, he’ll be a perennial MVP candidate going forward.
May 1st, 2007 at 12:22 pm
When Griffey hits his yearly stint on the DL, Hamilton will be forced into an everyday role. He’ll have to face lefties regularly, and I think his average will go down somewhat. Even if he tails off a bit though, he’ll be at or near the top for ROY.
May 1st, 2007 at 3:14 pm
The good news is that there aren’t many lefties in the division (and fewer good ones):
Capuano, Lilly, Rich Hill, Wandy Rodriguez…the Pirates have 3, though: Gorzelanny, Duke, and Maholm.
May 1st, 2007 at 5:04 pm
I can see exhaustion as a culprit but not inexperience. There have been exceptional talents make the short leap to the majors. Some just have the talent and the confidence to make it happen.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:09 am
He may wear down a little, much the same as Phillips did at the end of last season. Its been a few years since Hamilton played this many games.
May 2nd, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Hamilton should be fine. He is in form right now. If he struggles a little a little time off will help him. Last year Dunn et al wore down at the end of the season. I think that is a lesson learned, perhaps and a better use of squad rotation will keep Hamilton fit.