Loading ...With Opening Day of the season just a handful of days away, some of us (hopefully the rest will shortly follow) have compiled our predictions for the 2007 season. Apologies for any alignment problems with the predictions. Tables were not an option. Here are how the writers at RLN see things shaping up:
Matt: Chris W. Bill Chris G. Chad
NL East:
- Mets 1. Phillies 1. Mets 1. Mets 1. Mets
- Phillies * 2. Braves * 2. Marlins 2. Braves
- Braves 3. Mets 3. Braves 3. Marlins
- Marlins 4. Marlins 4. Phillies 4. Phillies
- Nationals 5. Nationals 5. Nationals 5. Nationals
NL Central:
- Cubs 1. Cardinals 1. Cardinals 1. Brewers 1. Brewers
- Cardinals 2. Cubs 2. Cubs 2. Reds *
- Astros 3. Brewers 3. Reds 3. Cardinals
- Reds 4. Astros 4. Cardinals 4. Cubs
- Brewers 5. Reds 5. Pirates 5. Astros
- Pirates 6. Pirates 6. Astros 6. Pirates
NL West:
- Dodgers 1. Dodgers 1. San Diego 1. Padres 1. Padres
- Giants 2. Diamondbacks 2. Diamondbacks * 2. Diamondbacks * 2. Dodgers
- Padres 3. Padres 3. Dodgers 3. Rockies
- Diamondbacks 4. Giants 4. Rockies 4. Diamondbacks
- Rockies 5. Rockies 5. Giants 5. Giants
AL East:
- Red Sox 1. Yankees 1. Yankees 1. Yankees 1. Red Sox
- Yankees 2. Red Sox 2. Red Sox * 2. Red Sox 2. Yankees *
- Blue Jays 3. Blue Jays 3. Devil Rays 3. Devil Rays
- Orioles 4. Orioles 4. Blue Jays 4. Blue Jays
- Devil Rays 5. Devil Rays 5. Orioles 5. Orioles
AL Central:
- White Sox 1. Tigers 1. Tigers 1. Indians 1. White Sox
- Tigers 2. Twins * 2. Tigers * 2. Tigers
- Twins 3. Indians 3. White Sox 3. Indians
- Indians 4. White Sox 4. Twins 4. Twins
- Royals 5. Royals 5. Royals 5. Royals
AL West:
- Angels 1. Angels 1. A’s 1. Angels 1. A’s
- A’s * 2. A’s 2. A’s 2. Angels
- Rangers 3. Rangers 3. Mariners 3. Mariners
- Mariners 4. Mariners 4. Rangers 4. Rangers
* denotes Wild Card
As for the playoffs, Bill picks the Yankees over the Padres in the World Series. Chris W. predicts Angels over Dodgers. Chad predicts Mets over White Sox in the series.
I am tired of these Terry Muncy types picking the reds to finish behind the cubs and brewers. It will no happen. Worst case scenario is 3rd place, but let’s hope for better than that, especially since the astros won’t be as good this year
One more thing about the Astros, they lost a couple solid pitchers and the only real prospect they have ready for the majors is a right hander named Kenseth Upton who hardly anyone has heard of
I’m not good at predicting. I can’t even tell you what I’m going to write here. But I don’t have much use for anyone who did not see the rise of the Tigers last year, and even less for those who say that whatever happened last year is going to happen again this year. Way too easy.
i’m pretty surprised/disappointed with the nl central rankings our blog lords have come up with. no one even sees the reds finishing second in this division?
it’s too big an argument to get into all of the reasons why the reds can beat each of the teams in their division, but with the team the reds have going into this season, and the shambles several of the perennial leaders are in, i need to find some bloggers with a little faith.
I don’t understand all the Cub love? Pitch Zambrano and pray for 4 days of rain? I don’t see the Cubbies finishing higher than 4th, and only being able to finish that high because they are in the same division as the Astros and Pirates.
Matt, Chris W., you got some explaining to do. I don’t know if a cosmic dimension exists that could support the Astros finishing ahead of the Reds, or anywhere other than last place for that matter. Please chime in with the logic behind this. Like Al, my faith in this site depends on it. Chris G., your picks mirror mine exactly, although I think the top 3 can be plausibly shuffled any way you like.
The Mets are not going to win their division with that pitching staff. I think the Phils will find the bullpen help they’re looking for.
Oh yeah, and anyone who thinks the Cardinals are going to win the division is delusional. They have ONE good pitcher (Carpenter) and TWO good bats (Rolen and Pujols – Edmonds is in decline). They have Ryan Franklin in their pen!
And Al, I have faith. Too much, probably. Then again, religion has been said to be the opiate of the people…
Agreed. The Mets pitching sucks big time.
The Reds will surprise a lot of the ‘knowing ones’ this season.
Looking at the NL Central, pretty bold stuff, blog hosts. And not totally disagreeable. The back end of the Reds’ rotation, the bullpen, the bench depth and the whole issue of Ifs, Ands and Buts likely means your range of third to fifth isn’t off base.
Kudos to you for not falling prey to spring training Kool-Aid, the hyperfaith of rose-colored fans, and fantasy-leaguers.
Right now, today, the Reds are what they are and the sum of the parts says what the hosts predicts.
Unless something drastic changes in our division, I think it will be the Reds and Brewers in one and two. I could see them switching spots several times this season. I do believe that you will have to finish first in the Central to make the playoffs. No way the wildcard comes from this division. Even though the West seems pretty strong, I don’t think anyone out there will top the Phillies. I think it will be Philly vs Anaheim (or whatever they are now). And I’m picking the senior circuit in a 6 game upset.
In the last 6 years, the Reds have finished 3rd, 5th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, and 5th within the division. Am I optimistic that the Reds will do better. I hope so. If not, why be a fan.
At the same time, if I’m going to predict, I’m going to list how I feel the teams will fall. Heck, if I knew exactly how everyone would finish, I’d be in Vegas.
St. Louis has won or tied for the division 5 of the last 6 seasons, including the last 3. Someone needs to prove it to me on the field that they aren’t division champs before I pick someone else.
As for Chicago, I guess I’m buying into the moves they’ve made to propel them into 2nd. Houston still has Oswalt and Berkman.
But hey, hopefully I’m completely wrong with my predictions.
Chris, they call ‘em “predictions” for a reason!
One man’s opinion is another man’s reason to believe. . . .
The Brewers rotation is way overrated. Talk about a flavor of the month. There is not much reason to believe that they will be better than the Reds. And the Cards have only one good, proven starter. I’m not saying that the Reds will blow the division away, but they get NO love in the press.
The Reds don’t have much beyond starter number two, but who else in the division does? Does Suppan really strike fear into the hearts of hitters?
The Jeff Passans and Tony Gwynns all predicted Atlanta would win the East last year too. Wow, what a sound methodology — pick whoever won the year before!
i guess benefit of the doubt is fair for teams that have won in the recent past, but i keep hearing people say things like the astros still have oswalt and berkman, or the cardinals still have carpenter and pujols, as if that’s enough.
think about what the reds had last year: two of the top 6 or 7 starters in the NL, one of the top HR hitters, maybe the best hitting catcher, a top stolen base threat, etc. but as we all know, one or two of these pieces isn’t and wasn’t enough to get the reds to .500, because they had huge weaknesses.
just like the stros, cards, pirates, and cubs do.
the cubs should have a lot of power in their offense and the brewers seem pretty balanced, but as seemingly everyone has said, the division is wide open.
in that scenario, i’ll take the reds.
Unlike the AL East where 1-2 is pretty much a lock, as is 5th, the NL Central is a crapshoot. Most agree the Pirates are last, but you could pick 1-5 just as easily by pulling them out of a hat as you could picking.
Every team has their strengths. Every team has their weaknesses. The Reds could win the division, just as easily as they could finish 5th.
With my predictions, I took into prior records and track records.
I’m a believer that you can put a guy in a certain uniform and he’ll succeed. Put a guy in a Yankees uniform and he becomes a great player. Unfortunately, the Reds uniform doesn’t do that.
Again, let’s hope I’m totally wrong w/ my picks.
Who was it said on the radio yesterday or the day before that the Cardinal’s staff ERA this spring is a full run and a half better than the Reds. They are a solid organization that spots and develops talent. We’re behind them right now, but headed in the right direction. I see the Cards in it all the way.
I like the sum of the Cubs’ and Astros’ parts better than the Reds, who I like better than Cardinals and about even with the Brewers.
The Brewers also seem to have given the Reds fits ever since they came into the NL, for whatever reason. Odd how those things work.
Just like, I just can’t get up for that titanic Brewers fracas on TV. At least with the Pirates the scenery from that park is spectacular.
Does anyone else have a Reds opponent that makes them reach for the No-Doz?
In all reality if the Reds were in any other division besides the NL Central, they’d be hoping for a .500 record, at best. Luckily, we’re in the mediocre division where every team has MAJOR flaws. I honestly have no clue where the Reds will finish, but I’m guessing 2-3. It can be anywhere from 1st to 5th. Sorry Pittsburgh, no chance that sorry team escapes the cellar, even in this craphole division. All five remaining teams have pretty decent offenses. Milwaukee I guess has the most stable pitching. The prize pitching signing in the entire division, Jeff Suppan, career wise is less productive than Eric Milton. I guess my prognostication would goes as follows, and why/why not:
1. St. Louis- The best bat and pitcher in the division, most solid offense. Pujols needs nothing said, but Rolen has health issues, Edmonds is just plain getting old. Eckstein is a gnat who needs to be squashed. I don’t like their OF at all. Kennedy signing is/was a waste though. Pitching hoping on WS heroes Reyes and Wainwright becoming reliable starters and Mulder finding health and soon.
2a. Cincinnati- Best 1-2 pitchers, offense can be the best if whiffs are lessened, though probably in the middle. Dunn, Griffey good for 60-70 combined hrs. Freel good for 5-10 road rashes. Pitching is a gigantic ? after Harang/Arroyo. Bullpen has good pitchers, but in what capacity?
2b. Milwaukee- Best rotation, solid end of bullpen. Sheets, dominant…when healthy. Needs entire young offense to stay healthy and play to potential, cut down on whiffs. Possibility of greatness, probability of .500, at least for this year.
4.5. Chicago- Will hit 250 hrs this year, 245 will be solo shots. Seriously, who’s going to get on base? Pitching is a wreck, Jason Marquis?? HOW MUCH for Ted Lilly??
4.5. Houston- One great hitter, one great pitcher does not a contender make. Oswalt is a freak, Woody Williams is done, Jason Jennings I just don’t buy it, then who? Berkman is a beast, Carlos Lee is a masher. Then what? Ensberg? Can hit but how consistant? Luke Scott? Played well last year, but will be 29 in June and has >300 career abs. Late bloomer? Or part time player?
6. Pittsburgh- Actually has a pretty decent offense, at least 1-5. Pitching again will be their demise. Zach Duke was Cy Young two years ago. He was Anthony Young last year. Bay and LaRoche will hit alot, Sanchez will come back down to earth but still hit .300 or so.
Mark T:
Marty said it during the Phillies game.
While that point is valid, I would like to point out that Milton’s and Harang’s ERA’s being over 6, and close to 7, are a large part of that equation. Once Aaron settles down and Milton is riding the pine, I think the averages will at least even out. I still think that the Red’s staff is better from top to bottom compared to the Cards.
MSN’s Power Rankings has the Reds 26th out of 30 teams. We only finish ahead of the Royals, Nationals, Orioles, and Pirates. Sheesh, they must be RLN writers…..
CNNSI had us 27th I believe.
Perhaps we’re all “show me” guys. Until the Reds “show me” we’re #1 in the division, I have a tough time putting them there.
Of course the same could be said for the Cubbies!
Perhaps I’m overly critical of the Reds
Spring training stats are useless 99% of the time. Team-wide spring training stats are useless 100% of the time. Too many variables in the level of competition they face, for one thing.
I want the Reds to win, but that doesn’t mean I think it’s the most likely scenario. I spent about 30 seconds on these picks, with half that time spent on the NL Central. The extent of my research was looking at last year’s standings, plus whatever I’ve gotten from following the Reds and Padres this spring.
Things I feel moderatly strongly about:
- The Brewers should be good. They have a LOT of young talent; Sheets is healthy; Capuano and Bush are underrated. Suppan sucks, but he’s miles better than our #4.
- The Astros will stink. They have Berkman, Lee (overrated), Oswalt, and 32 stiffs. They’re going to play Biggio and Ausmus way too much. With Kennedy and the pitcher, they’re punting half the lineup.
- The Cards rotation is a mess, but they DO have a habit of making something out of very little in that department.
- The Cubs deals were terrible in the long-term, but this year, they’re going to be way improved. You can mock their rotation, I supposed, but we have Kyle Lohse as our #3 and Eric Milton as our #4. Lilly’s better than those guys, as is Rich Hill. Marquis is terrible, but Wade Miller isn’t. They have a decent lineup now, and their manager is no longer Dusty Baker.
- The Pirates still stink, but maybe the Astros pass them on the way down.
It’s nice to see this fire. It indicates that we are close to the games counting!!
Wanted to pass along an article. Thought it was very thought provoking.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview07/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2817038
Fay just reported that Majic got optioned…Huh?
I’m going:
1)Milwaukee – provided Sheets stays healthy they have the best rotation in the division and Braun will be up before too long to help at 3B.
2)St. Louis – Pujols is Pujols and now that his shoulder is better Rolen should put up good numbers. Can you imagine Chris Duncan playing a full year? If Wainwright pitches well, then they will contend.
3)Pittsburgh – I expect big things this year from Ian Snell and Zach Duke. If they get production from Chris Duffy they could be very good.
4)Chicago – Zero pitching but how much do you really need with Soriano, Ramirez and Lee in the same lineup.
5) Cincinnati – I actually like the rotation better than most and feel that some of the older relievers will pitch better than expected. That said if August/September are a repeat of last year they will need a 15 game lead by the break to stay in the race.
6) Houston – I don’t see big things from Lidge and I’m not as high on Wheeler as everyone else is. Their lineup is good but outside of Lee I don’t see much production from their outfield.
wow, picking the pirates 3rd. bold, i’ll give you that, but i’m guessing you’ll wish you had it back by may.
Denorfia needs Tommy John surgery – wow, now down to Moeller and Hopper
Hey, the Pirates are in this thing, too. If you can throw a couple of names out there for legitimacy sake what about Bay, LaRoche and Duffy? Their rotation is young but looks pretty decent. I know Mike Gonzalez is no Rivera, but he’s more of a sure thing in the closer department than we have. Their defense looks pretty good. No depth at all, but every team in this division has big holes in it. Just based on a few names, they are as much contenders as anyone else. I think this will be a fun, yet frustrating division.
fair enough, fair enough. i’d love to see a reds/pirates resurgence, i’m tired of all the cubs/cards hype.
remember the 90 nl championship? outdid the world series by a large margin.
The Pirates being picked to finish third gave me an idea…
Somebody somewhere should create an NL Central-specific blog called something like “83-Win Champions” or “.512 Winning Percentage” and open it up for this kind of dialogue between fans of all of this division’s flawed (i.e. mediocre) teams.
There would probably end up being too many Cubs fans with too many delusional fantasies but we could all otherwise go on for days about “…your middle infield defense blah blah blah” and “… but if he wasn’t on the DL until July…” and “Matt Murton!?! You’ve got to be kidding me!”
And don’t forget Gonazlez is in Atlanta now. The Reds will hopefully get off to a fast start and will be able to ride the momentum to the All Star break. After that who knows, this offense has the potential to be scary bad. Not that I’m rooting for that, I believe Dunn and Jacoby will make Dunner look like a rookie, that Conine and Hatteberg are a great platoon and Griffey and Freel don’t wear down and/or crash into each other. Can’t wait for Monday
Robin – the blog idea is good. I’d be willing to contribute. I know some of the other team’s bloggers, and I know Red Hot Mama knows a lot of them. It might be fun. We can open it up so all bloggers from the NL Central can post and then anyone can comment. There’d be a lot of smack talking, which is always fun. What do other people think?
Great idea. I love to bask in mediocrity; especially at the expense of others.
Good discussion, guys and gals. My predictions are forthcoming (I’ve emailed them to Chris W), and I’m the resident optimist here at RN, so mine are slightly more rose-colored, perhaps.
The Reds are a team with very serious flaws, flaws that we tend to overlook during the spring when we’re all filled with optimism. But this division is so bad, the Reds have a real chance to win it.
We can all dream.
One thing I failed to mention is that for the Pirates to be third Solomon Torres needs to finish games like he did at the end of the year.
Try to get Mike Pindelski from AllCubs on the “.512 Winning Percentage” blog. The blog is ugly but they have good content.
I’m a newbie to the blogosphere (but I do know that word is a tragic and unfortunately enduring name for what we’re all doing and where we’re doing it) so I would not be a good candidate to be the man behind the curtain of an NL-specific blog.
I do have a rather Jeffersonian idea for the format of such a blog. (Like I said, I’ve only been reading ya’ll since Arroyo re-upped so if my idea is S-T-U-P-I-D just let me know and I’ll go back to dressing myself in Garanimals and simply “commenting.”) An NL Central-specific blog would be most interesting to me if for each interdivisional game, pitching matchups, lineups and some simple (or not-so-simple) pre-game/pre-series analysis were posted each gameday. Immediately following these items would be some perhaps relevant but perhaps irreverent smackity-smack from each team’s contributing experts and then… open the barn doors and let the hoedown begin!
To put it simply- if the blog and the comments were about the games and the opposing fans and the blog was augmented with an occasional “feature” or other diversion thrown in here or there (How are you gonna keep Astros fans peeking in when their boys are on a west coast roadie?) I think it would be a great read and it might eventually “drive itself” so the eight or ten contributing bloggers could put forth minimal effort starting it and stopping it while leaning back and smoking a butt like the Tilt-a-Whirl operator at the county fair.
And… a great way to get bloggers and their comment-page lackeys intially involved would be to have a corny “name-this-blog” contest.
WOW, Just found out that if you look at this post on a mac its like trying to read a foreign language.
The NL Central is an extremely tough division to call. That’s probably why we are seeing so many comments and why so many are all over the map. As I see it, except for the Astros and perhaps the Pirates all of the other teams are probably within a few games (5 at most) plus or minus of 500. There isn’t a lot separating them and as others have pointed out, it is typically the flaws that drag them down 10 or more games this season. None of the Central teams is the caliber of the Phillies or the Mets who are #1 and #2 in the NL IMHO.
Since we’re going all over the map, I’ve gotta add that I think the Dodgers are pretty well built and they could match the Mets’ and/or the Phillies’ win totals at season’s end.
Chris, I’m a long-time Mac user and never had an issue with the cosmetics of this site. Are you using safari or that wretched IE, or Firefox? My Mac version of Firefox has not worked properly since their last upgrade.
Vlad G., Sheffield, Lackey, and Penny for Konerko, A. Rios, C. Young and S. Olsen in a 5×5 roto? Who gets the better deal? Now we are officially all over the map…
Depends on which Chris Young.
The pitcher from Milwaukee…
er… San Diego