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For Reds manager Jerry Narron’s plan to split the left-handers in his lineup to work, the right-handers splitting them are going to have to hit.
That would be Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion.
Phillips is likely to hit third in Narron’s plan, Encarnacion fifth. Those are two very key spots in the lineup.
“I have confidence in them,” Narron said, “and they have confidence in themselves. I think they’ll both benefit from having left-handers hitting around them.”
The idea of Phillips in the #3 spot scares the hell out of me. I’m all for breaking up the LH hitters, if it can be done in some way without crippling the offense, but the #3 hole is for your best hitter. Phillips isn’t the Reds best hitter, he’s not the Reds 5th best hitter.
Hopefully this experiment will either be successful or ended very quickly.
I know lineup construction is overrated, but c’mon…. Phillips at third?
That doesn’t even make sense if you are managing “by the book.” It’s just…bizarre.
Who wants to bet that Adam Dunn ends up hitting sixth in this proposed lineup?
So does this mean it will be Freel, Hatt, Brandon, Junior, Edwin, Dunn, Ross, and Gonzalez? Junior gets kicked from center and hitting third. That’s rough, he shouldn’t be doing either, but it’s just tough on him I would think.
So if Junior is out, does Dunn hit fourth with Hamilton batting sixth?
Phillips batting third makes perfect sense. I posted this item on my blog, titled “Loose Observations from Spring Training, March 20:
The manager has used Brandon Phillips in the third slot of the order quite a bit this spring. He should stay there. I saw Phillips in the cage enough last year that he’s one of those guys whose impact on the ball makes you turn around. His outs are often hard and loud, and, with experience and fewer KOs, he has the makings of a good 3-hitter. Having Griffey behind him would get Phillips a lot of pitches to drive and, further, break up the monotony of all the lefties. My order: Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips, Griffey, Encarnacion, Dunn, Ross/Valentin, Gonzalez.
Phillips can hit 25 homers and drive in 90-100. But yeah, he has to continue improving on last year.
Dunn is not a 3-hitter. Dunn is not a 4-hitter. And because he walks so much he doesn’t need the protection behind him that most people would. So 6th suits him for now, especially until he proves he can cut down on strikeouts and do more than hit 40 solo homers.
If Hatt, Griffey, and Dunn are our 3 lefties, I’d still bat Griffey and Dunn back to back and split up Hatt.
Go with
1. Freel
2. Phillips
3. Dunn
4. Griffey
5. EE
6. Hatt
7. Ross
8. Gonzalez
It’s rather comical to think that after all these years, Griffey finally gets bumped out of the 3 slot in favor of … Brandon Phillips.
I wouldn’t rush to judgement about Brandon Phillips quite yet. Yes he slumped in the second half, but he also played incredibly for the Reds in the first half after the Indians gave him up for a bucket of balls. He has shown the ability to outperform expectations and I’m sure that he learned a lot last year.
It’s a risk, but not a huge one. Narron will just change the line up – he’s not going to keep him at 3 if he’s 2-20…
Chris W, what’s your theory behind batting Dunn and Griffey back to back?
I like Brandon Phillips. Heck, I like him a lot.
But is there any reason to believe that he is the best hitter on this team? I can’t see it, and I can’t justify hitting him third. The marginal benefit of splitting up two lefties, in my opinion, is outweighed by the number of times you would have someone other than your best hitter at the plate with your on-base guys having reached.
It’s an interesting question, though.
Again, I’m going to defend Adam Dunn’s bad rap…the common theory is that he only hits solo homers.
Looked at the Top 6 in the NL in HRs last year and it’s true, Dunn had the highest % of solo homers (58%), A. Jones was 54% and Ryan Howard were 50%.
But was also highest in % of homers with runners in scoring position with 33%. Next was Beltran was 32%, Berkman at 31%.
So, Dunn is also the biggest clutch homer run hitter in the NL, but you won’t hear that in the media.
Who says that Phillips isn’t the best hitter on the Reds this year? Griffey isn’t, Dunner isn’t, E2 isn’t, Freel isn’t, Hatteberg isn’t, etc. Phillips probably (until Hamilton gets it going) is the Reds best option in terms of speed and power. I think he’s an ideal 2 hitter, but I don’t see a problem in the 3 spot.
Lets not forget, too, that this isn’t like trading or releasing someone…its the lineup and the second day of the season it’s likely to change (given Narron’s propensity for “mixing it up”). So big deal if that’s the talk today.
I’m no baseball historian, but I think that teams have batted two lefties in a row once or twice before. I seem to recall Ruth and Gehrig wearing jersey numbers 3 and 4 for a reason.
Josh, you’re talking completely out of your rear end with all the “isn’t”s. There are 800 million decent-to-great offensive metrics out there, but you’re determining the team’s best hitter by an arbitrary process of elimination?
Phillips is an out making machine. There is no reason a guy who will post on on base percentage less than .330 should EVER hit third in the line up. Todays line up has things looking like this:
Freel
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Hatteberg
Gonzo
Ross
I bet we see that line up to start the year.
forgot to add, if you flip Edwin and Phillips in that line up, things look a LOT better.
Ruth and Gehrig never had to face late-inning situational managing, or even bullpens for that nature. They also had better hitters around them than the ‘07 Reds.
’27 Bombers–ass-kickers all around.
But then, Dunn and Griffey ain’t Ruth and Gehrig either. But I’m sure there’s some stat data someone will find that says otherwise.
Well, Dunn hit .270 against Lefties last season with an .896 OPS.
So bringing in a lefty specialist to face Griffey and Dunn wouldn’t do much good.
Wouldn’t that be the main reason to split those two up? To prevent a lefty from facing the two?
Okay, if you feel comfortable with Dunn’s strikeouts and lack of run production outside of homers, it’s your call. Obviously, the team disagrees.
Dunn in 2006: 131 hits, 40 homers, 24 doubles.
Dunn batting in the 3-hole: .218 average, 8 homers, 17 RBI, .886 OPS, 29 KOs in 78 ABs,
Dunn with runners in scoring position: .221-13-59, just 30 hits in 136 ABs, 48 KOs.
Dunn close and late: .237-4-13, 27 KOs in 76 ABs . . . .
And on and on. Given his lack of consistent contact and lack of production in the production slots, the 6-hole seems appropriate.
My arbitrary decision making is no worse than the arbitration decision that Phillips isn’t the best hitter. I don’t know (or am arguing) that Phillip’s is, my point rather is that there isn’t one hitter on the team that we can point to and say “there’s our best hitter” like the Cards can with Pujols or the Pirates can with Bay, so why not bat Phillips in the three spot?
Here’s a stat for that comparison – the names “Adam Dunn” and “Babe Ruth”, and for that matter “Gehrig” and “Junior”, have the same number of letters. Quod refret ipso facto, they are equal.
Ha, sorry, it’s been a long day and I’m feeling stupid. Let the serious discussion on lineups continue.
Josh, can you give one possible rational explanation backed up by some evidence as to why anyone should believe that Phillips will be as effective a hitter as Dunn, Griffey, or even EE?
Griffey is/was better than Gehrig, so that’s not too much of a stretch. And heck, if he isn’t/wasn’t better than Ruth, he’s pretty close.
Okay, the day Griffey was better than Gehrig is the day we should all give up and stick to the day jobs. Gehrig was unbelievable.
Look at 1927.
Look at 1931.
Look at 1934.
Look at 1937.
Specifically, look at the walks. Look at the strikeouts. Look at the average. Look at the production.
Look in awe.
You just have to hate it when a record of what happened (statistics) gets in the way of someone’s “feeling” as to who is better.
And that wasn’t aimed at Daedalus, but at the people who scoff at statistics as being next-to-meaningless.
There isn’t any comparison between Ruth/Gehrig and Griffey/Dunn (certainly not in 2007). But the point is that smart teams get their better hitters more PAs – they don’t fiddle around with putting their 5th or 6th-best hitter in the #3 hole, simply to “even out” the lineup. That’s using a hammer to swat the fly on your glass vase.
And, as Bill noted, Dunn doesn’t have an extreme platoon split to begin with (he was actually 60 OPS points better against LHP, so there’s no “problem” to fix. If anything, we should want opponents to bring in their LOOGY.
As it is, they’re just going to bring the guy in to face Jr (career -100 OPS vs. LHP), pull him for EE (batting #5) and leave the RHP in to face Dunn, which paradoxically, hurts the Reds.
In other words, the team gets fewer ABs from Dunn (I bet the #6 batter gets 75 fewer PAs than the #2 hitter, over a season), and hurts itself in the platoon situation it was trying to address.
MORE, batting ahead of Dribbler’s row (Catcher – Gonzales – Pitcher) will likley mean one of two things for Dunn: (1) more walks for people to bitch about; or (2) more outs, as he swing at bat pitches. Even today, Dice-K didn’t throw Dunn anything, with Phillips and Griffey following.
Yeah, but you have to also take into account the era played, so statistics compared over history don’t always accurately portray the bigger picture. Back then, more players hit .370. And Gehrig had the luxury of having people hit behind him. And in front of him. All the way through the lineup.
Though I was kind of kidding about the Ruth thing…
Adam Dunn in the 2 hole hit .317/.417/.593 last season in 130+ at bats. Keep him there. Flop Phillips and EE and we are going in the right direction.
As for this Brandon Phillips deal…
Dude had a 85 OPS+ last year. That means he was 15% worse than the league average. You know who was a better hitter than Phillips last year? EVERYBODY! Literally.
Ross, Hatteberg, Encarnacion, Lopez, Dunn, Griffey, Kearns, Freel, and Aurilia. They all had a higher OPS than Phillips. And Valentin tied him.
In OBP, Phillips was 8th on the team (he beat out Griffey and Valentin).
In SLG, he beat out Freel and Lopez. Again 8th.
I hope the guy improves. Despite his second half, I think he might. I don’t think however, that he’s the best hitter on this club. In the #3 hole, I’d bat Dunn, Griffey, EE, or Ross before I batted Phillips. Maybe even Hatteberg.
If Dunn bats 6th, I guarantee his walk total would rise. I’d walk him every time to face David Ross or Gonzalez.
Look, all I’m trying to say is that there isn’t a “best hitter” on the team so why get all bothered about Phillips hitting third. That’s all I was trying to say (granted I must not have said well).
The word best means “someone who tops all others.”
By definition there has to be a “best” hitter on the team, unless you are saying that everyone on the team is equal, which is very interesting, but false, proposition.
I simply can’t believe the ineptitude of minimizing Gehrig’s remarkable career and ability by blaming it on the era. Godalmighty.
Josh, we get all bothered by it, becuase while there may be some disagreeing on who is the best hitter, there is no one disagreeing that Phillips is NOT in the conversation. He isnt near the conversation for that matter.
The worst news our “best” hitter might just possibly be a rule 5 pick… I’m not sure what that says about the team – nor am I buying into the spring training hype all that much…but still, just sayin’.
As for the lineup – here’s what I’d do:
1. Freel
2. Dunn
3. EE
4. Griffey
5. Hatte
6. Phillips
7. Ross
8. Gonzalez (except when Arroyo is pitching against the Cubs, then Arroyo gets the 8 spot and Gonza moves down to 9).
9. The pitcher…
Since we’re talking about lineups..who leads off for the multitude of games where Freel is unavailable?
I’m coming into this debate pretty late, but I just wanted to say that I’m ok with Phillips batting 3rd. Some fairly recent research indicates that the #3 hitter has less of an impact on run scoring than many other lineup other positions, and therefore the #3 hitter should *not* be your best hitter. In fact, the best all around hitter should probably be hitting 2nd, with the best power guy hitting 4th, best obp guy hitting 1st (no surprise), and your next best all around hitter after those guys hitting 5th. The 3rd hitter therefore should be about the 5th or 6th best hitter in the lineup. Here’s a THT article from last spring that talks about this stuff: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/constructing-lineups/
-j
It won’t matter who starts where, Jerry can’t keep a lineup from day to day. As long as he moves the lineup with who is producing I don’t care.