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Interesting post by Nate Silver at BP Unfiltered. He briefly looks at whether pitchers actually improve after age 21 (unlike hitters, who pretty consistently improve up to age 26-27). The natural conclusion is that when you have young pitcher tearing up the minor leagues, you might as well get him up to the majors, since there’s no guarantee that you’re not seeing his “peak” years, anyway.
The flip side is that Silver specifically identifies Bailey as an example of a small sub-class of pitchers who do see improvement with age (“guys with good stuff, high strikeout rates and highish walk rates”).
All he said maybe true, but it doesn’t negate the fact that young pitchers in the majors get hurt a lot more than older players.
Well, that’s not 100% the point. The question is whether young players in the majors get hurt more than young players in the minors.
(And I’m not even sure if young players in the majors do get hurt more than older players. It’s certainly not true as to position players.)
I think the guys ready for the majors early (Weaver, Hamels) are more the exception than the rule. Most pitchers need work on mechanics, control, working on a 3rd or 4th pitch, and plenty of other things before pitching at the majors. Pitching may be more of a physical skill than a learned art, but there’s still plenty of learning to be done at the lower levels. Besides, I’d guess that a lot of pitchers don’t peak physically until their mid-20s, meaning that they won’t be ready for the majors right after college, let alone HS.
Speaking of pitchers who started out with high K-rates and went on to improve greatly . . . I just read a good Jayson Stark article on the most invisible wins/K’s league leader ever, Aaron Harang.
Great Aaron Harang article, DA, thanks for the link.
WHO SAYS THAT HOMER BAILEY IS A “SUB” CLASS PITCHER? BY GOLLY, HE IS THE SAVIOUR OF CINCINNATI!! THE BEST PITCHING PROSPECT SINCE MARIO SOTO IS NOT “SUB”. HE IS NOT ANOTHER PAUL WILSON, TERRY MUNCY, CAREY LEONARD, ETC..
Zach, you need to take a big,deep, breath, big fellow.Your love for the reds is unquestionable,yet calling Homer the “savior” is setting you up for a big letdown. Does the name ” Mean Gene” Parsley ring a bell?