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2/28/2007
I expect tomorrow’s Cincinnati papers to be all Homer Bailey, all the time, so let’s get the jump on it. Here’s what John Fay says:
It was interesting what Homer Bailey had to say after his one inning of work in the intrasquad game. (He walked one and gave up a bloop hit). Basically he said he threw his off-speed stuff to show the Reds’ brass he’d worked on it in the offseason.
In other words, Homer’s plan is to make the team.
Ummm…surely Fay isn’t surprised by that. Did anyone expect that Bailey would come to major league camp trying to get sent to Louisville?
Bailey on difference between his spring and Arroyo’s: “Those guys have spots locked. I know coming into the spring that one of the things they wanted to see from me was how I could control my off-speed stuff – that it was improved. If I had been in Arroyo’s place, I probably would have thrown nothing but fastballs, just get my work in.”
On his improved off-speed pitches: “I told you guys that’s something I worked in the offseason. I think all my off-speed pitches were either hit or strikes. I wasn’t quite locating my fastball. I left a few up.”
Anyway, no one should read anything into Bailey’s stat line from today’s “game”; if ever stats were meaningless, today’s the day. But there is much to be encouraged about, besides just the simple fact that one of the game’s top pitching prospects (TNSTAAPP) is a Red.
Said Bronson Arroyo:
“It’s tough being in his shoes. It’s like walking into a basketball camp and you’re going to make the team or not by shooting 10 free throws. You’re like I got to hit seven or eight. If you’re John Stockton, you can clank eight of them and doesn’t matter because they know what you can do in a game. It’s definitely more nerve-wracking for the young guys.”
We’ll try to link to as much of tomorrow’s BaileyFest as we can stomach…which will probably be a lot. It’s been a long time since the Reds have had this type of pitcher come through the organization.
UPDATE: It begins. Here’s the Reds.com article. I’m not sure how seriously we should take an article that says Bailey is fresh out of “the college ranks.”
UPDATE 2: As Bubba notes in the comments, the Dayton Daily News already has a Bailey story up. And here’s John Fay’s piece in the Enquirer, and the Associated Press has this report. Same quotes in every story, for what it’s worth.
UPDATE 3: Note that Ken Griffey, Jr., got in some fielding work today…in right field.
Rosencrans has the update here on today’s intrasquad scrimmage. This is my favorite report from today, though:
Adam Dunn on Homer Bailey: “I’m on the bandwagon.”
Dunn walked against Bailey and saw more pitches than anyone. He said he was surprised at how good Bailey’s change-up was. Bailey threw two change-ups to Dunn.
Javier Valentin, who served as Bailey’s catcher, said Homer showed “he belongs up here.”
Anyone else getting excited?
One of the comment threads has evolved into a referendum on the Reds’ decision to spend significant (as in, around league-average) money on veteran relievers like Stanton, Cormier, and Weathers. (Thankfully, we haven’t gotten to the point of debating guys like Brian Meadows, Kerry Ligtenberg, or Ricky Stone).
This article by John Perrotto in today’s BP touches on the subject, in looking at the money Cleveland and Baltimore spent on relievers this off-season.
The first thing to recognize is that relief work might be more important from a psychological perspective than just “X innings pitched.” Tribe Manager Eric Wedge said that he sees a lot of harm in “losing a series of games in the late innings. …When it happens over and over, it wears on you. Guys are human and sports are emotional. It’s not like we’re making widgets at XYZ Company. Guys start wondering what is going to happen next.”
I think everyone can understand that (and recognize that it’s a part of baseball that doesn’t directly show up on the box score). The question, though, is how do you best avoid those bullpen meltdowns and the resulting problems?
Perrotto starts with this:
Those who have crunched the numbers have proof that relief pitchers are a fungible commodity. No, that doesn’t mean the clubhouse guys forgot to wipe down the shower room. The numbers suggest that clubs should spend the fewest dollars on the bullpen, in no small part because relief pitchers’ performances fluctuate so much from year to year, and a good arm worthy of providing 80-90 innings can be found on the cheap.
That sounds eminently logical to me. But there’s also a competing view:
“I know people say one of the worst things you can do is spend a lot of money on free-agent relievers, but I think it made a lot of sense in our case,” Indians manager Eric Wedge said. “There is no greater (area of) volatility on your roster than the bullpen, so I think it pays to try to find the most consistent relievers you can, guys you can count on.”
This makes sense, too. The question is still how do you find those “guys you can count on”?
“One of the lessons we learned is that you can’t rely on too many young kids in the bullpen,” Wedge said. “You need guys you can count on from one outing to the next.”
I don’t know if Wedge is making an assumption, or reciting a lesson learned the hard way (that younger pitchers are more erratic than expensive free agents). It might be true, or maybe it was just the particular young pitchers he had last year. Or, and this is a legitimate point: Players are more willing to put up with a meltdown from a veteran, so the psychological impact is less.
In our case, consider Coffey and Weathers. Both had a chance to close last year, and neither was very impressive. I thought, though, that Weathers lasted longer in a high-leverage role. A quick look at the numbers shows that they were pretty similar, and Coffey may have actually pitched a little better: Weathers (ERA 3.84) had 7 blown saves against 12 saves and 9 holds. Coffey (3.58) had 5 blown saves against 9 saves and 18 holds. My recollection is that the manager and team had much more confidence and comfort in Weathers. From a manager’s perspective, that’s typical: There are much fewer questions to ask when your “proven closer” takes a beating. From the players’ perspective, maybe they’d give Weathers a little more benefit of the doubt, and not get down over a couple bad outings.
I don’t know the answer to this question, and reasonable minds certainly seem to differ. If I had to state an opinion, I’d say that truly superior, reliable relievers are worth a premium price, but that the vast majority of these guys have a short shelf life, so you’d better not invest much time or money in them. I’ll be looking at the results this year, and over the next few. |
Courtesy of Rosencrans (I have no idea what is up with the team names):
Team Nappy (in white)
Phillips 4
Gonzalez 6
Dunn DH
Conine 3
Hamilton 8
Ross 2
Castro 5
Wise 9
Dickerson 7
Arroyo 1
Gil, Keppinger, Moeller, Hanigan on the bench
Team Bucky (in grey)
Freel 8
Deorfia 7
Encarnacion 5
Hatteberg DH
Valentin 2
Bellhorn 4
Votto 3
Crosby 9
Janish 6
Bailey 1
Machado, Hopper, Jorgenson, Conway on the bench
Posts like this one are why I think it’s great when a beat-writer takes blogging seriously — as Trent Rosencrans does. It’s a nice forum for little nuggets that won’t make it into the printed edition of the paper. Plus, we get anecdotes like this one:
Whatever happens the rest of the day, I’m good. It’s not every day you get a compliment on your baseball skills from a future Hall of Famer. Today I did.
While I was standing around while the players were warming up, a ball got past Ken Griffey Jr. and came to me. I bobbled the grounder, but I picked the ball up and threw it back.
After he caught it (and it was a strike, I must add), Junior just looked at me for a second.
“What?” I said.
“Nice overhand motion. I like it,” Junior responded.
“Hey man, I’m fundamentally sound,” I said.
And that was it. My dad will be very proud.
Very cool.
Since it’s that time of year, when the beat writers are struggling to find stories until the games begin, I bring you today’s profiles of Scott Hatteberg and Norris Hopper.
Honestly, though, there are some compelling stories surrounding these two players. Hatteberg doesn’t have to worry about a roster spot, after last year’s outstanding campaign, and the rejuvenation of his career has been fairly startling. I really hope he can repeat that success, but at Hatteberg’s age, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it. Let’s hope he hits well and that Joey Votto pushes him; that would be the best-case scenario for this club.
Norris Hopper, of course, may have the best “back-story” of anyone in camp not named Josh Hamilton. Heck, maybe better than Hamilton, even. I’d love to see Hopper somehow snag the 25th roster spot, just to have the guy around. I’d be very surprised if that happened, even if Manager Jerry Narron chose to go with just 11 pitchers. Narron would have to beat out Chris Denorfia, Hamilton and, heck, Bubba Crosby in order to make the Opening Day roster.
I just can’t see that happening, but Hopper is due for a little luck.
2/27/2007
Over at BP, Jay Jaffe has this post on what happened today with the Veterans Committee:
Moments ago, the Hall of Fame announced the Veterans Committee voting results, and as the “new VC” has done twice before, they laid a goose egg despite the presence of a handful of eminently qualified candidates on the ballot. Ron Santo, who towers head-and-shoulders over every other playing candidate, toppped the voting at 69.5 percent, meaning he fell five votes short of election. Also topping 50 percent among players were Jim Kaat (63.4), Gil Hodges (61), and Tony Oliva (57.3). Besides Santo, the two other candidates that the JAWS system tabbed as worthy weren’t even close. Joe Torre received 31.7 percent, down from his 2005 total of 45 percent. That’s a tacit recognition that he needs his managerial credentials (four rings, six pennants, 11 divisions, one Wild Card) to get over the hump. Dick Allen received just 13.4 percent of the vote.
Go read the entire thing; it’s worth your time.
I mention this mostly to point to this article about Redleg Nation favorite Vada Pinson, who received just 20% of the vote from the Veterans Committee. It’s a nice look back at the career of one of the more consistently under-rated Reds of all-time.
Prospectus just started a series they’re calling “Hope and Faith.” It’s essentially an optimistic, best-case-scenario preview of every team. Today is the Reds, with guest author Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.
Starting point:
If the Reds make just a few marginal improvements, they could get their record over .500, giving them a chance to win the NL Central. Once they get there, as the Cardinals showed, anything can happen.
What has to go right for that to happen?
1. Homer Bailey is Ready for Prime Time
2. Adam Dunn Bounces Back
3. The Reds Keep Finding Freely Available Talent (credit given for Arroyo, Phillips and Ross; Hamilton, Saarloos, and Livingston mentioned as possible breakouts).
4. Alex Gonzalez’s Defense is as Good as Advertised
5. Joey Votto takes Over at First Base
Dick Pole is the Reds’ new pitching coach.
When I was in law school, one of my apartment-mates had a bright idea. He brought a big box of his old 1970s-era Topps baseball cards from home, and used them to decorate an entire wall of our apartment. Other than the various cards featuring Oscar Gamble’s afro, Pole’s card was our favorite.
A little glimpse into my past.
UPDATE: I found a scan of that wall. Forgive the poor photography; those were the days before I owned a digital camera:
2/26/2007
On the topic of the bullpen, I see that Mark Sheldon at Reds.com has this profile of Kerry Ligtenberg, who is struggling to make the team:
“I was close to being done, actually,” said Ligtenberg, who is in Reds camp as a non-roster player trying to make the team.
Ligtenberg, a Minneapolis area native, already has a chemical engineering degree from the University of Minnesota. He began laying the groundwork toward adding a finance degree and plans to take courses over the Internet. A life of leisure also sounded appealing.
“I told my wife I’d like to spend the summer fishing, but she wasn’t real keen on that,” Ligtenberg said.
Ultimately, Ligtenberg wasn’t keen about any of those post-baseball options either, at least not yet. The 35-year-old right-hander still wanted to pitch in the Major Leagues. He spent most of the offseason working out with a personal trainer and keeping his arm in shape.
You won’t be surprised to learn why GM Wayne Krivsky signed Ligtenberg, though: because the Twins told him to!
On Feb. 3, Ligtenberg participated in the annual University of Minnesota pro-alumni game at the Metrodome and threw a scoreless inning against the current Golden Gophers team.
Twins general manager Terry Ryan was in attendance, as were a handful of scouts. The Twins didn’t have any spots for Ligtenberg, but he was offered encouragement.
“[Ryan] said I could still pitch,” Ligtenberg said. “I know he’s pretty straightforward. If he said I stunk, it would have been time to shut it down.”
Always looking for bullpen help, the Reds were interested. Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky, a former Twins assistant GM, phoned Ryan and got a positive endorsement. Cincinnati signed Ligtenberg to a Minor League deal on Feb. 14, just three days before Spring Training opened.
I’m hopeful for Ligtenberg. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I think he could help this team.
I meant to post this earlier, but…
In this Reds.com article, Jerry Narron says it’s a closer by committee. Who can argue with that? There is certainly no one in that bullpen who I would trust day in and day out.
And, as usual, the Enquirer has the identical article on the same day, written by a different author (I know there are only so many things to write about, but it’s funny to see every beat writer write about the same topics every single day; think the Reds are pushing stories on them?):
The Reds’ plan all offseason has been to use a closer-by-committee setup, with right-hander David Weathers and left- hander Mike Stanton getting the bulk of the chances.
Reds manager Jerry Narron threw a slight caveat into the works Saturday:
“Unless somebody here - somebody like Todd Coffey or one of the younger guys - just has a great, great spring where they’re just dominating everybody, it would be David Weathers or Mike Stanton, depending on whether the biggest outs are left-handed or right-handed hitters.”
But Narron doesn’t expect that to happen.
“I don’t know if we have that kind of a big arm in camp that’s going to change anything,” he said.
What about Homer Bailey?
“He’s not in the bullpen,” Narron said.
So look for Weathers and Stanton to be co-closers - at least early. They relish the opportunity.
I don’t.
John Sickels has a “Prospect Smackdown” today, comparing Jay Bruce and Detroit prospect Cameron Maybin. Exciting stuff.
2/25/2007
Anyone planning to watch the Oscars tonight? Any predictions?
Feel free to talk it up in the comments section below.
Reds.com has this look at Kyle Lohse’s first spring training with the Reds organization. Most of the article is about all the promise Lohse has displayed, and how he has never quite reached the heights expected of him. Lohse says this year is the year:
Lohse is older; Lohse is smarter — smart enough to know what might await him at the end of this year’s baseball rainbow.
“Next year, I’ll be a free agent,” he said. “So in that aspect, it will be big — having a good year or not. We’ll see what happens after that.”
What he’s counting on to happen is that, finally, the pieces of what has been his personal puzzle will all fit into place. They’ll fit into place with the Reds and not with the Twins, the team and the teammates there that weaned him into the bigs.
Whatever motivates him, I hope he does finally experience some consistent success. He certainly has the stuff.
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