Loading ...Minor league guru John Sickels has posted his Reds Top 20 prospect list.
Bailey (A) is first, then Bruce (A-). Joey Votto also gets a good grade (B+), but after that, things drop off real fast. The phrase “useful bullpen spare part” is used a half-dozen times (all in reference to guys that Krivsky kept on the 40-man over Brandon Claussen, by the way). B.J. Szymanski has dropped all the way to #20.
In short, this ain’t a good system. There are a few interesting guys who are years away, like Milton Loo and Chris Valaika, but pretty much everyone is either low-ceiling (Wood, LeCure, the AA relievers), or has probably-insurmountable flaws, like not being able to hit (Stubbs, Janish, Szymanski).
I thought Stubbs was said to be a good hitter, was said that he had 5-tools before being drafted. Now all of the sudden he cant hit?!
Rome wasn’t built in a day. It will take a few years to restock the minor league system.
The worry with Stubbs was always that his hitting style might not translate to a high average in the pros. This isn’t a recent development. The teams interested in drafting him thought he was talented enough to work through it and become a good hitter, other teams weren’t interested because they never thought he’d pull through. I still figure that with his other tools, if he can find his way to becoming a .275 hitting, multiple gold glove winning centerfielder, he was a good pick.
Loo and Valaika years away? They are college guys. I could see them bumping up pretty quickly with performance.
I think the top ten looks good. Johnny Cueto and Travis Wood can be middle of the rotation guys. I don’t remeber anybody saying Stubbs was a good hitter coming out of college. In fact I remember that being the rap against him. I know Teagarden & Johnston? were considered better hitters at the Univ. Texas and in his draft class. He was supposedly ready to play MLB centerfield straight out of the box. The question was and still remains can he hit for average at the major league level. I’m not trying to be condescending but some people don’t act like they understand what a gamble a first round MLB draft pick is. For Bruce & Bailey to be be almost universally in the top 25 prospects of MLB, things are lot better then they were the last few years.
Not much to argue with there. I think the rankings are fair.
If his bat was a question, why was everybody saying that he had five-tools? I’m not saying hes a bad pick, but dont say he has five-tools if he really doesnt.
He should never have been referred to as a “five-tool player,” (if he was – I don’t remember either way). “Hit for contact,” is typically the first tool of the five, and everybody knew he had serious problems with contact. He averaged over 1 strikeout per game at Texas, a really big number for a supposedly-elite player at that level.
Funny thing about Stubbs is, if Krivsky wants all D and no offense, why don’t you put the kid on the 40 man roster right now.
They called him five-tool because while his K rate was high, he posted a high average his last year in college.
I dont really agree with his list. He has the top 6 pretty accurate, however after that I disagree with him all over the place. Josh Ravin, 5th round pick last year, is 18, was hitting 96 in the Pioneer League this last year and has 3 commandable pitches, wasnt in the top 20. BJ Szymanski is #20, but Javon Moran, who is 2 days older hit .320 in AA wasnt in the top 20? I think he underrated Loo for the time being, although I think the unknown factor plays in with Loo playing JC ball then only in 14 GCL games before sitting down to rest his elbow.
Oh, as for his ‘weak system’ comment, I call BS. How many players does a team have to be able to put in the majors in a 3 year span to be a strong system? Bailey and Votto will be starting for the Reds in the next 2 years, if not sooner. The group of relievers will also probably have at least 2 guys here by 2008. Jay Bruce should be knocking on the doorstep after 2007, and who knows what Drew Stubbs and Chris Valaika, or even other guys are up to in 2 years? Then you have some x-factor guys with lots of intrigue, like Cody Strait who should be in AA next year, who has some power and speed and just needs a few more hits to fall for him over the course of a season and see his average jump up.
The Reds may not have a bunch of ‘B’ type prospects, but I will take 3 guys with A’s and a B+ over 15 B- guys.