Loading ...The following is the status of players on the Reds roster for 2007 as shown in the Cincinnati Post a few days back.:
Current players and ‘07 status
Under contract:
Bronson Arroyo (through 2008)
Juan Castro (through 2008)
Rheal Cormier (through 2007)
Adam Dunn (through 2007)
Ryan Freel (through 2007)
Ken Griffey Jr. (through 2008)
Scott Hatteberg (through 2007)
Jason LaRue (through 2007)
Eric Milton (through 2007)
Javier Valentin (through 2007)Potential free agents:
Royce Clayton
Ryan Franklin
Eddie Guardado
Todd Hollandsworth
Jason Johnson
Kent Mercker
Scott Schoeneweis
David WeathersContract options:
Rich Aurilia (mutual)
Paul Wilson (team)Arbitration-eligible:
Grant Balfour
Aaron Harang
Sun-Woo Kim
Kyle Lohse
David RossPre-arbitration:
Matt Belisle
Bill Bray
Brandon Claussen
Todd Coffey
Chris Denorfia
Edwin Encarnacion
Brendan Harris
Norris Hopper
Gary Majewski
Chris Michalak
Ray Olmedo
Brandon Phillips
Elizardo Ramirez
Brian Shackelford
Jason Standridge
Dewayne Wise
So the above is Wayne Krivsky’s starting point for the offseason. I think we all are much anticipating to see how bold his strokes with the roster will be this winter. The following are some of my thoughts on the players above:
Click below to read on!!!
Under contract:
Bronson Arroyo (through 2008)
Great pickup by Krivsky, reasonably priced. Don’t be surprised at falloff next season, this year may have been his career year.
Juan Castro (through 2008)
Everyone needs a backup SS, let’s pray that’s all he ever is for us.
Rheal Cormier (through 2007)
I look, and hope, for him bounce back next season. I did not like the contract extension he was signed to when acquired.
Adam Dunn (through 2007)
Wouldn’t surprise me to see him dealt this offseason as Krivsky reshapes the face of this team. Big question is, can we get equivalent value in return for the best offensive player on this team.
Ryan Freel (through 2007)
Currently a starting OF for us. Probably not his best role as a fulltime player. Could he be on the block too? Could be past the point of selling high with him.
Ken Griffey Jr. (through 2008)
Two more seasons on the contract. Probably not tradeable, cross your fingers and hope for health.
Scott Hatteberg (through 2007)
Since he’s been a regular, he’s been on a rollercoaster, one good season, one bad, one good…… Guess what we are due for this season? I think we jumped the gun signing him for next season, though he was not terribly expensive, he is for a pinch hitter. It would be wise to have a plan B in place for 1B as a big dropoff for the aging Hateberg would not be a surprise at all, if not expected.
Jason LaRue (through 2007)
Most likely to be dealt? Big contract, ready replacement in Ross. He could be a big pickup for someone, I expect him to rebound and have a nice season next year. Will be interesting to see if Krivsky can move him.
Eric Milton (through 2007)
Next year is last season on current contract. He had a 4.8 ERA before his last ill advised start. He improved immensly over his first season. Look for him to be a greatly overpriced solid 3-4 starter next year.
Javier Valentin (through 2007)
Solid backup catcher, swings left, and decent PH. Will be interesting to see if he gets many PH opportunities next season if LaRue is dealt.
Potential free agents:
Royce Clayton
Ryan Franklin
Jason Johnson
Let all three of them walk, please.
Eddie Guardado
Kent Mercker
Both these guys would be candidates for the 2007 DL ride, contract with incentives gig.
Todd Hollandsworth
I wouldn’t be adverse to him being resigned as the 5th OF/LH PH at the right price.
Scott Schoeneweis
David Weathers
I’d be ok with both of these guys being resigned for the pen at the right price. I’d want Weathers back a bit more, Shoenewieiss would be more likely to disappoint in my estimation.
Contract options:
Rich Aurilia (mutual)
I’d promise him the 2B job and hope he picks up his side of the option. Don’t expect him to be quite as good as he was this season, but still very solid, especially for a 2B.
Paul Wilson (team)
They decline the option and offer him a minor league contract or non-guaranteed, incentive laded contract with shot if 5th spot if healthy.
Arbitration-eligible:
Grant Balfour
Is he healthy? If so, I’d offer him arbitration. If he comes back close to full, he’s got a shot at being the closer we need.
Aaron Harang
Only question is, can you sign him long term before he breaks the bank in arbitration?
Sun-Woo Kim
Luke Hudson part two? Great arm, great stuff, couldn’t find the plate with a compass. Let him go.
Kyle Lohse
Huge question mark here. I expect the Reds will roll the dice on his healthy arm and pay him too much to be the 4th/5th starter. I’m not so sure I would though. If I thought I could get a much better pitcher via trade of free agency, I’d use that money there and let Lohse walk.
David Ross
We saw him drop off late season, but we fully expected it. I think he’s still a solid, bit younger replacement for LaRue. He could be the guy to go also if LaRue can’t be dealt. I just hope they get something done with one of them and we don’t have the three catchers thing going on again.
Pre-arbitration:
Matt Belisle
I’d like to see him thrown in the mix with Claussen and Ramirez for the fifth spot next season, at least untiil Bailey arrives.
Bill Bray
Should be the number one LH in the pen next season. He’ll have the opportunity to seize the closer’s role if he’s up to it.
Brandon Claussen
Frontrunner for 5th rotation spot if healthy, and he’s supposed to be.
Todd Coffey
Top setup man in pen. I was disappointed he didn’t step up to the closers role this season. Now we still have a big hole there.
Chris Denorfia
Solid 4th outfielder. I’m sure other don’t, but I still like him much better than Hopper.
Edwin Encarnacion
This will be a big year for him to show he can make progress in the field.
Brendan Harris
He’d be my new Aurilia next season. Backup infielder all the way around the infield and right handed pinch hitter.
Norris Hopper
He’d be the bubble guy on my roster. I prefer Denorfia as the 4th OF, I prefer Harris as a RH pinch hitter. He’d be first guy up from Louisville for me.
Gary Majewski
I think it’s a confidence thing. He saw himself as the centerpiece in the Kearns/Lopez deal and tried to do too much. I don’t think he’s anything more than a setup man, but if they can get his head on right, he’ll do ok for us in that role. Hope so, we are stuck with him.
Brandon Phillips
He’d be my new SS. I’d tell him to go home get healthy, and come in ready to play SS.
Elizardo Ramirez
If healthy, and he should be, he’d be Claussen’s main competition to hold the 5th spot down until they call up Bailey.
Chris Michalak
Ray Olmedo
Brian Shackelford
Jason Standridge
Dewayne Wise
All are 4A players and should be in Louisville barring injuries.
The offseason shopping list should include a closer, a SP, a starting RF, and a 1B.
Feel free to chime in with your thoughts and ideas on how you think the Reds should shape the roster this winter.
Later,
Tom
Tom..on the 1B situation. Do you have no confidence in Votto, don’t believe he’s ready, or forgot about him?
Hatteberg’s odd numbered years vs even numbered years are just amazing. He is definitely an “even-numbered year” guy. I think his best odd-numbered season he had only slightly better production than his worst even-numbered year.
Re: Votto – From our vantage point today, I think Votto is a potential for next year if Hatteberg falters next year. Votto also has had good year, bad year, good year – so I don’t think he can be firmly penciled in yet, but I think he’s the long term plan.
To answer a question yesterday regarding my estimated salary figures, here’s the player names, looking at the team today have a good shot at being on the 2007 roster, in their order above with salaries added:
Under contract: 2007 salary under contract – 10 players total $49.425
Bronson Arroyo (through 2008) – $3.8
Juan Castro (through 2008) – $0.925
Rheal Cormier (through 2007) – $2.25
Adam Dunn (through 2007) – $10.5
Ryan Freel (through 2007) – $1.7
Ken Griffey Jr. (through 2008) – $12.5
Scott Hatteberg (through 2007) – $1.5
Jason LaRue (through 2007) – $5.2
Eric Milton (through 2007) – $9.8
Javier Valentin (through 2007) – $1.25
Contract options: The team will pick up Aurilia’s, will he?
Rich Aurilia (mutual) $2.0 million
Arbitration-eligible: $$ = ???
Grant Balfour
Aaron Harang
Sun-Woo Kim
Kyle Lohse
David Ross
Pre-arbitration: 9 guys at $400k = $3.6
Matt Belisle
Bill Bray
Brandon Claussen
Todd Coffey
Chris Denorfia
Edwin Encarnacion
Brendan Harris
Gary Majewski
Brandon Phillips
So, 19 guys with known salary of $53.025 million.
Aurilia has the $2 million option.
Harang can probably get as much as $5-6 million this year.
Votto’s bad year came in a very pitching tough league, i think he’s going to be ready next year. Hatte was brought in on a Joe Randa deal to hold down first until midseason.
As for Lohse, it doesn’t make any sense to “let him walk”, i.e. non-tender him. Then another club signs him and we get nothing for a 27 yr old with a live arm whose shown that he can pitch in the majors. not smart. if it’s agreed that lohse will be somewhere between the level of a third starter and a 5th starter, maybe the reds don’t want to pay 4-5 mil for him.
Fair enough, but don’t get nothing for him. Sign him and trade him. You give him 4.5 mil, and offer to eat a million of that. Someone will be willing to give up a good prospect or reasonable major leaguer for a guy who could be their 3rd starter that they only have to pay 3.5 mil.
As for backup OFs (assuming we bring in a legit starter), Deno and hopper can duke it out in ST, but i see no reason to hang on to Hollandsworth. He didn’t hit righties that well, and someone else could do it just as well for less i’d think. it wouldn’t be terrible if he was back, i just don’t see the point.
On Lohse: Al’s plan sounds okay in theory, if a little complicated, and I can’t see a GM paying part of the the salary of a guy he just signed, then traded.
But I have two substantive issues with it: (1) If WE don’t believe Lohse is worth $5M, and we were the ones who just traded for him and saw him pitch, is anyone else going to believe he’s worth $4M and an everyday player or legit prospect? (2) I’m okay with “not getting anything for him,” especially since we didn’t pay all that much, at least in the org’s view (I like Ward, but in their view, they didn’t give up much).
Agree with Al about Hollandsworth. Aside from not hitting righties, I’d like a backup OF to be fast and reliable in the field. I’d rather have Hopper as the 5th OF, and he’ll be cheaper.
Lohse is worth $5m for one year. He benefitted from switching leagues but also went to a hitter’s park in the process, and pitched well enough for back-end starter. I have more faith in him than Claussen or Belisle at this point.
So, am I reading this right?
$53M does not include Aurilia or Harang? So, add those two in, let’s say it adds $7.5M. That takes it over $60M.
Then some want to give Lohse the $5M most agree he can win in arbitration. That’s $65M.
If the Fay guess on payroll is right, that means you’ve got $10M to find another starting outfielder, strengthen the bullpen, and maybe another starter?
The numbers don’t work….unless they trade Dunn.
Also, Hopper is not a major leaguer…not matter what he did in September.
He had 133 hits this year at AAA, 14 for extra bases. He had 20 walks in 383 ABs…
I don\’t want him on this roster, no matter how cheap he is. Sure, you say \”he\’s only the 5th outfielder\”, but assuming they don\’t trade Dunn (or even if they do), Griffey isn\’t going to play 120 games, Freel can\’t play every day….so you\’re going to end up playing your 5th outfielder a fair amount of time…and this guy should not be starting in the major leagues…period..even as a spot starter.
Tom..on the 1B situation. Do you have no confidence in Votto, don’t believe he’s ready, or forgot about him?
I think Votto would be a good late season plan B at 1B. I think he will need to play for a bit at AAA first before he’ll be ready, mostly to see a more steady diet of offspeed stuff and prove his down year in Sarasota was an aberration. Would’ve been nice to see him in Cincy in September. I believe Dunn or Griffey could be a valid plan B also for 1B. But that would require them to acquire yet another OF. I have to wonder if the Reds keep Dunn, if Votto’s future will be with the Reds, since I still believe Dunn should be a 1B.
Hate to even bring this up, but doesn’t Casey become a free agent this winter? Dimitri Young is also still out there too. I also noticed that Aaron Boone is also now available. Boone seems like he’d be right up Krivsky’s and Narron’s alley.
Later,
Tom
I’d like a backup OFer who can be counted on to start for a period of time if one of the top 3 get injured. That was something lost with the kearns trade that wasn’t taken into account. The more specialized the bench gets (defensive replacements, pinch runners) the weaker the overall team depth is when the impending DL stints take place.
Lohse: Just not worth $5 million in my mind. He gives up too many hits to succeed in GAPB. Look at Milton’s numbers last year. That’s my prediction for Lohse in a full season at GABP. The year Milton did terribly, he gave up 237 hits in 186 innings – a batting average against of 302. Lohse has 3 consecutive seasons of giving up a .300 average. I don’t care that he throw’s mid 90’s. Estaban Yan throws hard too. Want to bring Yan back to be the closer next year?
Lohse’s “good” part of 2006 came in just 11 starts. I cannot recommend paying someone $5 million on 11 good starts. That’s the kind of signing that got Jim Bowden into trouble. “Looks like Graves can be a great starter based on 4 starts, let’s throw him a lot of money.”
The other argument related to “change of scenery.” I think a lot of times, change of scenery is a short-term gain. Think D-angelo Jiminez. He starts with a new club, play well, after a while tails off, gets demoted, whines, is traded. New team, great start, hits well, after a while tails off, gets demoted, whines, is traded. If the problem is mental/clubhouse issues, those will resurface with the new club eventually. If the problem is just a lack of playing time or a lack of chance to succeed or poor coaching, then yes a “change of scenery” can give a player a second chance and he can embrace that change and succeed.
Could he also learn a new pitch – or identify a problem that the Cincy coaches picked up on that they didn’t see in Minnesota? Gain more consistency? “put it all together”? Sure, any of those things are possible. Would you gamble $5 million on it?
Tom..on the 1B situation. Do you have no confidence in Votto, don’t believe he’s ready, or forgot about him?
I don’t think Votto will be ready until midseason. I’d like to see him get a steady diet of offspeed stuff at AAA and prove that his bad year at A+ was an aberration. I’m still not so sure he is the Reds future 1B though, since I believe Dunn will end up a 1B eventually if the Reds hold on to him. I do think that Dunn or Griffey could be the plan B for if Hatteberg goes south. That would require them to acquire two good outfielders this winter though.
Hate to bring this up, but isn’t Sean Casey a free agent this winter. Also noted that some other former Reds, Dimitri Young, and Aaron Boone will be available also. Boone would be right up Krivsky’s and Narron’s alley.
Later,
Tom
Later,
Tom
So, am I reading this right?
Yes.
$53 without Aurilia or Harang (or Lohse or Ross etc)
$55 with Aurilia
$60 (approx) with Aurilia and Harang
What would $10 million left over get you? If you needed THAT many players, I guess something like Weathers and Schoeneweis for $1.5-2 million each. Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel for $1.5-$2 million. One of the Lohse-type starters that are out there that I listed a week or so ago (actually guys with better career numbers) maybe in the $3-5 million range.
That scenario looks a lot like this team did in the 2nd half without bench depth to overcome injuries.
Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel for $1.5-$2 million.
No chance. Roberts is coming off a career year. And made $2.25M. He’s not taking a pay cut after going .293/.360/.393 – plus going 49-55 in steal attempts. If you want to pry Dave Roberts out of southern California, it would take well north of $5M, a starting job, and/or a 3-year deal.
I think some major chemistry has to change. I don’t see a Dunn deal yet.
I’m not sure what Rich Aurilia’s incentive would be to pick up his option. He is coming off of the type of year he used to have back in his hey-day in San Fran. I think the Reds would probably have to promise him the full-time 2B job as well as add an extra year or two to the contract. At a reasonable price, even assuming he can’t repeat this season’s stats again, he might be worth extending through 2008.
Greg – I think 11 starts is a reasonable basis to offer arbitration. If we were talking about a multi-year deal, or only four starts, I’d share your skepticism. But for a solid back-end rotation guy, I think the Reds have seen enough to give him $4-5mm. To me, his biggest issue to me is his control and keeping the walks down. When he’s doing that – this year and in the past – he puts up good results. His BB/9 w/ the Reds was 2.7 (4.57 ERA), 2.2 in ‘05 (4.18), and 2.0 in ‘03 (4.61). When that ratio is around 3.5 (with the Twins this year, also in ‘04), he’s much worse. It’s a risk, but if the front office thinks that his control will be there, he’s worth one year.
Marc Lancaster reported that Grant Balfour was claimed off waivers by the Brewers.
Richie might be drawn by a full-time 2b job and if they sign some pitching to give this team a legit post-season shot.
But he might not be drawn by the salary left on an option he signed for when he was looking like a past-his-prime utility player. I’m not saying he doesn’t want to come back, just that it might take a little bit of extra money and security than what his option year has in it.
11 starts might be an acceptable sample (esp. if you were familiar w/ the guy from before), IF there was any consistency to those 11 starts. The problem is, Lohse was all over the map: Great one day, then Miltony the next.
5 IP, 2 ER
6.1 IP, 1 ER
7 IP, 1 ER
8 IP, 0 ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6.1 IP, 4 ER
7 IP, 1 ER
2.1 IP, 7 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
3 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
That’s 5 excellent starts, 4 crappy starts, and 2 okay starts.
I don’t know how you can predict what he’s going to do next year, especially since he was trending downward (only had 2 good starts out of his final 7).
After the season he had, I don’t know why you wouldn’t make every effort to keep Aurilla on this club. He was one of the few guys still hitting after the allstar break and he played well at every infield position.
I’m still somewhat hesitant to put Phillips at short on a full time basis, but if it keeps Aurilla on the club, I’ll roll with it.
Glenn, I’m curious as to why you feel this way about Phillips, considering it was his original position?
I think the Reds should try to move LaRue and/or Valentin, and get something, anything for one of them. I don’t like the idea of tying up a roster spot with a third catcher for the second consecutive year. Maybe in one of their deals this offseason the Reds could stockpile a minor league catcher prospect in case Ross or whoever ends up being the back-up guy gets injured. Catcher is such an injury-prone position, I feel this would be a wise move.
Hey, did anyone else hear that Cleveland is, please don’t laugh, SERIOUSLY thinking about signing Royce Clayton? Wouldn’t the irony of us taking Phillips from them and shipping them Clayton be delightful?
Bill,
I’m not against moving Phillips back to SS. Its just that during the limited time he was over there this year, he just didn’t look that strong to me. He wasn’t over there that long so it could just be a case of a bad first impression. However, I thought he did a terrific job at 2B. With Aurilla’s age and lack of range, second base does make more sense for him. Given all that, I think its almost a done deal that Phillips will be at SS next year.