Loading ...John Fay seems to think Kyle Lohse will be back next season.
Right-hander Kyle Lohse made the Reds feel a lot better about their plans for him in 2007. Lohse went six innings Thursday, allowing one run on three hits.
Lohse was 0-3 with a 13.09 ERA in his previous three starts. But he was very good – 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA – in his seven starts before that.
Overall, he is 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA.
Lohse is 27 years old and throws 94 mph, so the Reds are likely to give him a shot to make the rotation.
“He’s our guy,” Narron said. “(But general manager Wayne Krivsky) can move anyone at anytime . . . Lohse has given us some very good games. He’s an experienced guy.”
4.57 is about league average, I’d guess. His WHIP with the Reds is 1.41 and he’s allowed .287/.336/.434 as a Red. On the plus side, his G/F ratio is very good for pitching in GABP (1.49).
According to ESPN, he’s making $3.95M this season and, as stated in the print article (but not on-line for some reason), is arbitration eligible. If you have to go to arbitration with him, he’s going to be making at least $5M next year.
For a pitcher that is, at best, league average, that’s too much.
Could he get better? Yes, but on a team with an actual budget, that’s too big a chunk to risk in the hope that he improves. I’d probably talk to him about a lower deal, but I don’t see any reason that he’d agree to it, but there is no way I offer him arbitration.
I just wrote about this in my game story on my own blog last night, Bill. Last night’s strong start makes it a slam-dunk that Lohse gets a strong offer from the Reds, IMO. He’ll probably get overpaid, but not as much as Milton or dozens of others. $5 mil is pretty cheap if he is actually a league-average starter, given the market.
Shawn, I sure don’t want to use Eric Milton as the measuring stick of the kind of deals we should be signing. Lohse has had 5 terrible starts, 5 good-excellent starts.
I sure don’t want to take a $5M chance on him for next year, not with a budget the size of the Reds. Not even for one year.
If it’s just one year at $5 mm, I think he’s worth the risk. He’s entering his prime, has good stuff and a solid g/f ratio. More to the point, though, I don’t think they’ll be able to do better in the FA market (where they’ll have to commit to a multi-year deal), and the internal options for the 3-5 starters are not great. Maybe I’m forgetting someone, but even if you count on Milton and Ramirez pitching decently in ‘07, there’s not much beyond that. Claussen seems like a poor bet at this point.
With Wilson coming off the books (buyout of 850K), there should be room for Lohse.
My concern would be simple – how do you know if either the good starts, or the bad starts, are a fluke? Right now he hasn’t really had any middle ground between great and awful in his starts.
The Oswalt contract (5/$73), by the way, establishes a pricey FA market for SPs this winter. Guys of Zito’s caliber will obviously benefit the most, but there will be a chain reaction affecting all SPs. This year could be worse than the offseason of ‘04, when Milton, Benson, Lowe, etc. got $8+/yr on multi-year deals.
As of today, Lohse does not seem to be a bad option at that salary level. Of course, alot could change depending on what is available in the offseason. He certainly is a tough call based on what he has done for the Reds. If you recall, he had trouble with his walk rate in Minny, yet with the Reds he has had an excellent K/BB ration. And a starter working in the 93-95 range with his fastball is just something the Reds do not have in the rotation but desperately need. Like many, he seems to rise and fall on getting his breaking pitches over. From what I saw of last night’s start, he was locking folks up with a hard biting slider, which is the case when he is on.
I hope this team doesn’t let this one start determine whether Lohse is under contract next year or not. I hope this team already had a plan in place and a determination of Lohse’s value and role on the club in 2007 and didn’t let the actions of 1 start make their decision for them.
I may disagree with their assessment, but I truly hope that they aren’t persuaded to sign players for an entire season based on their performance in one game.
I think people are also too quick to write off his prior history before coming to the Reds. He’s just not a $5M pitcher on a team that can’t afford to blow $5M.
As we’ve learned from watching Mr. Krivsky the second half of the season, just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should…I’d let him walk before I’d go to arbitration and hope that we can find something cheaper or someone inside the system steps up.
Bill N – I think that’s why you look at a larger sample. His entire season (not just the 11 starts he had in Cincy), his previous 2 years, his career.
Here are his career stats.
Note the outliers in his 11 starts in Cincy. 1.49 G/F ratio. Never been that high over a full season.
.287 BAA – lowest since 2003.
.762 OPS against – only been better than that once in his career – again 2003.
I see a lot of pitchers on the free agent list I’d rather see in Cincinnati in the same age range with similar/better past performance. Some may be more than $5 million, and deservedly so. I would imagine that several will end up costing at or less than that number. Here’s my short list of FA’s:
Gil Meche
Vicente Padilla
Jeff Suppan
Adam Eaton
Byung-Hyun Kim
Tomo Ohka
A couple of other intriguing FA’s – Randy Wolf coming of TJ surgery probably can’t get the $9 million he was paid this year.
Also, look at Corey Lidle’s stats. They look similar, if not better than Lohse, and he played for $3 million this year. He’s a free agent. (Yes, I know his first trip through Cincy wasn’t successful.) He’s a groundball pitcher.
My other concern is that the arguments for paying Lohse $5M (which is a guess for all of us) is what created the problem that ended up being a grossly overpaid Eric Milton. “He’s the best you’re going to find at the price…”
They don’t need to spend the money, unless they think they’re spending it wisely.
I’d roll the dice and take him for one year at $5mil. His problems stem from pitch selection, and for a guy who’s entering his prime, that will only improve. From what I’ve seen, he has a bad habit of falling in love with whatever pitch he’s getting over that day. You’re probably overpaying for a 4th starter, but you’re underpaying BA, so it all comes out in the wash. If the last three months have shown anything, it’s that ownership isn’t going to quibble over a million bucks. In that way, overpaying for this guy should be seen as a good thing.
my opinion – lohse would make a good fifth starter.
on an unrelated note – some of us in the blogosphere are wanting to make the Pittsburgh trip if the games matter. i’d like to have a big group of cincy fans in the stands for that game. i even want to make signs. of course, this is all only if it matters.
GregD – Looking at those, I’m not that excited. Cheaper? Yes. Better? Not much.
Actually, looking at Lohse’s and Milton’s stats… any GMs out there with Scott Kazmir clones that need a pitcher?
Is Lohse healthy? What do his numbers tell Krivsky? If the decision is based on health and numbers then it will be a good one.
Interesting how Krivsky is avoiding any talk of Narron’s coaching staff. I think changes are on the horizon.
Looked up the career stats of the 6 FA’s I listed above. All have better career #’s than Lohse. Most have had better recent success.
I don’t think we should talk anything long term about Lohse. Maybe a single year for under $5. I may be the last person on the planet to believe that Vincente Padilla would be a great value pick-up. No, I’m not a big stat guy, so I can’t show you lots on paper, but I really think he just needs a little adjustment and a new house to pitch in for him to be a genuine number 2 type pitcher. I’m glad this decision on Lohse is one I don’t have to make.
lohse has good stuff, he’s young, and he’s had some success in the big leagues. That’s someone the reds keep, every time.
And he’s not going to get a huge raise, if he gets a raise at all. You know players are allowed to lose up to 20% of their salary in their arbitration eligible years, and his Overall ERA this year is 5.82, very much above league average.
I would expect Lohse to get about what he made this year again, 3-4 mil, or maybe a two year deal worth 8 or so with incentives. That’s a fine deal to me since he’s definitley the best option we have after harang and arroyo.
Better the devil you know… ?
Al, when was the last time someone went to arbitration and didn’t get a raise? Even if they lose, they get a raise? If there is an instance, I sure can’t remember it.
Again, this “best option” we have talk bothers me….so, you over pay for a bad product because you have a need, whether he fills it or not? As I said earlier, this is how the Reds ended up with Eric Milton.
Al, when was the last time someone went to arbitration and had their salary cut? I can’t remember it ever happening. Even if they lose the hearing, they get a raise.
Again this “best option” talk bothers me a lot, as it seems that’s how we ended up with Eric Milton. You can talk about his “stuff”, but his numbers don’t show him being a solid prospect for success.
I’d rather take a chance on some combination of Dumatrait, Bailey, Belisle, Claussen, Ramierez, etc for cheap money and fill a hole somewhere else than throw $5M at someone who I don’t believe will succeed.
On an unrelated note, in the event it is needed who does St. Louis have to make up a game with?
Jim – SF.
The Giants.
I think Matt Morris is in line to start the makeup game against his old team.
this can be reposted when the game thread gets going, but if anyone’s interested early, here’s the reds lineup for tonight:
1. C Denorfia, CF
2. N Hopper, RF
3. R Aurilia, 1B
4. E Encarnacion, 3B
5. A Dunn, LF
6. B Phillips, 2B
7. J Castro, SS
8. J LaRue, C
9. A Harang, P
it’s up to the guys who’ve led this team this month to get it done. And yes, i am referring to denorfia and hopper.
Lohse, reminds me alot of Luke Hudson. When he’s on he’s pretty good. When he’s off, he’s absolutely horrible.