Loading ...It’s an afternoon tilt at Great American Ballpark today, as Bronson Arroyo leads the Reds in search of a few things:
– a win of this series with the Cubs;
– Arroyo’s 15th victory of the season;
– a win in the final home game of the 2006 campaign; and
– pulling the Reds within two games of .500, keeping alive hopes of reaching that mark by season’s end.
Aaron Harang, of course, notched his fifteenth win yesterday, and I’m not sure anyone thought the Reds would have two fifteen game winners this season.
So, anyway, we’re not really in the playoff race any longer, but there are still things to play for. Cheer on the Reds, and discuss the game right here.
here’s to the last homegame, let’s take it to the chubs if for no other reason than why the hell not. they’re the chubs and they’re embarassment only makes the reds stronger.
also for discussion: juan castro has signed an extension for 2 years about 1.5 per. defensive replacement? check.
Why is Phillips not at SS again?
Surely our crack staff don’t think Aurilia picks it better there.
Clueless has run amok at GABP.
Later,
Tom
Here we go. Error by Aurilia opens the door, error by Ross ushers the Cubs through it. 4-0 Cubs after half an inning, all 4 unearned. Arroyo threw 43 pitches in the first.
I really wanted to win this game. Hope the bats wake up.
reds baseball at it’s best.
some thoughts on dunn from a thinking about an earlier thread. i love that he hit 40 HRs, that’s great, and it can’t be ignored. however, HR’s alone do not a complete power hitter make.
In MLB this year there are 30 players who have hit at least 31 HRs so far, and i’m going to arbitrarily call them the Power Hitters. Here are some average numbers for the power hitter group:
slg%: .568, ops: .951, HRs: 38, 2b: 30.8, 3b: 1.5, RBI: 110
Dunn’s numbers in those categories thus far:
.506 slg, .876 ops, 38 HR, 23 2b, 0 3b, 92 RBI
so while Dunn has 2 more HRs than the average power hitter, he has almost 10 fewer extra-base hits, leading to a .60 deficit in slugging, and a .75 deficit in ops and nearly 20 fewer rbi.
rbi is certainly a team dependent stat, but 10 fewer EBH is a pretty big difference. my point being that he’s not only a below average defender, he’s also a below average Power Hitter. Certainly all of the Power Hitters are above average hitters, but since there 30 of them, most teams will have one and some will have several, so he’s not exactly elite.
Anybody kept track of how many balls Ross has dropped at home this year?
Reds bats . . . so sleepy . . .
hmm. The PH with Clayton works a walk to load the bases. Maybe we should pull Aurilia for Castro here…
Still 4-0 but bases loaded for Aurilia . . . three straight walks with two out here in the seventh . . . Reds still being three-hit but have walked six times now . . . probably the best Cub reliever (Wuertz) coming in . . .
Good stuff, Al. That’s exactly the point I’ve tried to make, but people get so emotional. Whether you want to trade him or keep him, let’s just acknowledge that among he’s among the elite, yes, but not exactly a one man wrecking crew.
Oh thank you, Rich.
Al, how much of the SLG difference based solely on Dunn’s lower AVG? ISO (isolated power; SLG – AVG) more fairly shows a hitter’s raw power.
Back to the game, Coffey Ks Murton, winning the battle of the carrot tops.
yeah but “raw power” doesn’t corrolate that strongly with the team scoring runs, where slugging does, so it doesn’t really matter to me what his “raw power” is like.
If you wanted to make that point the Dunn was a below average Power Hitter because he has a low batting average you could and it’d be fine be me, the point is the same.
I chose to make the point that he’s a below average Power Hitter because he has a lower slugging percentage, which i think is more informative than either BA or ISO.
Again, these Power Hitters are a totally arbitrary sample of players with a bunch of HRs because a lot of people seemed to be getting distracted by Dunn’s HR count and missing his bigger offensive picture. It’s not meant to be a rigorous statistical analysis, just a quick snapshot.
Holy cow! Jr. with a pinch hit 3 run HR. Reds up 1. I didn’t think we’d see him again this year, let alone like this.
How about that return from the dislocated toe? 3 run PH HR
Too bad it was about 10 games too late.
Weathers finishes it for the save! It feels like April. Almost.
I will be darned. Kenneth is amused by the simplicity of this game.
Along with Ryan Freel, the Reds have closed the books on Ken Griffey for 2006. (from BP).
Oops.
I was surprised to read that in Will Carroll’s BP column today, only one day after there was a reds.com article about how dead-set Griffey was on coming back this week.
Treat him like Frank Thomas last year – can’t run, so swing for the fences.
Nice present for the last home game of the year.
Despite being outscored by three runs in the four-game series, committing a shocking 11 errors, and allowing 8 unearned runs, the Reds win 3 of 4 from Chicago. Yikes.
Agree with what you’re saying, Al. I was going to say that a high walk, low AVG hitter like Dunn is disadvantaged with OPS (because it counts AVG twice, but not walks), but when I looked at your original post I realized that Dunn actually has a lower OBP than the group as well. No getting around that this hasn’t been a stellar year by his standards. One problem has been his lack of doubles. He went from 34-35 to 23 this year.
Unrelated XBH number: the Reds have the lowest # of triples in MLB this year, and it’s not even close. They have 11, next worst (Boston) is 15. Tops is LAD with 53. Even with a small park, I found this surprising given that we have some speed.
From the games that I attended personally, I noticed a few occasions where the Reds could/would have benefitted from an Edwin, Phillips, Freel, or Lopez (when we had him) taking the turn for third but they were held up by Mark Berry. Im not saying that in some cases it is smart not to gamble, but the third base coach and runners should know the arms of the outfielders. And the way this team has hit with RISP this year, I think Taking the gamble could have paid dividends this season. Interesting not there Ken.
Pertaining to the discussion on Dunn… thank you Al. Too many people are obsessed with the Home Run. Dunn is a boring ballplayer in my opinion, and I would not miss him if he were gone. The only truly “great” memory I have of him was this year when he hit the walk off slam against Cleveland. Most of his HRs are of the solo variety, his BA/RSP surely didn’t help the team, and mostremarkably, despite everyone’s excuses, he has failed to improve from year to year in the Major Leagues. Here are Dunn’s stats… I am unimpressed….
Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SB% BB K BA OBP SLG TB SH IBB HBP GDP OPS
2004 CIN NL 161 681 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 6 1 85.7% 108 195 .266 .388 .569 323 0 11 5 8 .956
2005 CIN NL 160 671 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 4 2 66.7% 114 168 .247 .388 .540 293 0 14 12 6 .927
2006 CIN NL 153 653 536 97 128 23 0 40 92 7 0 100.0% 107 184 .239 .370 .506 271 1 12 6 8 .875
THT Batting
Year Tm Lg RC RC/G GPA P/PA LD% BA/BIP GB% IF/F HR/F BA/RISP Clutch
2004 CIN NL 111 7.2 .316 4.3 19.3% .321 32.4% N/A 23.5% .239 -8.1
2005 CIN NL 108 7.2 .294 4.2 17.1% .281 36.0% 16.5% 20.9% .248 2.9
2006 CIN NL 100 6.7 .294 4.2 23.9% .282 28.2% 7.6% 22.8% .234 -0.4
Win Shares
Year Tm Lg Batting Pitching Fielding WSP WSAB Total WS CWS
2004 CIN NL 30.3 0.0 1.4 .838 18 32 N/A
2005 CIN NL 26.5 0.0 1.8 .794 16 28 103
2006 CIN NL 18.1 0.0 2.6 .597 9 21 124
Look at how terribly his #s dropped in the year that his team needed him most… had he been the Dunn of last year even, the Reds would still be in this race. His BA/OBP/SLG have all declined from one year to next. This is not a young player coming into his own in this league. This is a player staying the same and a League learning how to pitch to him. These #s are represented in his dip in total win shares and OPS. He just isn’t the guy many uninformed Reds fans think he is when they look at who leads the team in Home Runs.
Now look at Alfonso Soriano (probable offseason Free Agent)
Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SB% BB K BA OBP SLG TB SH IBB HBP GDP OPS
2004 TEX AL 145 658 608 77 170 32 4 28 91 18 5 78.3% 33 121 .280 .324 .484 294 0 4 10 7 .807
2005 TEX AL 156 682 637 102 171 43 2 36 104 30 2 93.8% 33 125 .268 .309 .512 326 0 3 7 6 .821
2006 WAS NL 154 706 629 116 179 41 2 46 95 41 17 70.7% 63 155 .285 .357 .576 362 2 15 9 2 .932
The Reds would serve themselves well to trade away Dunn and his $7.5 million contract and pick up some top pitching prospects. Use the left over money and chip in a few extra bucks to pick up the $10 million Soriano.
I think it is a no-brainer to pay the extra 2.5 mil for a guy that can add better fielding, more speed in the lineup (there ya go on the triples Ken), More HRs!!! (for all you live/die for them), better OPS, and an all-around player who is really coming into his own and HAS improved from one year to the next and who has shown no signs of slowing.
Just a thought.
I have said all I can on the Dunn Topic… now for the good stuff…
Thank you Junior for coming back this year and providing us at least SOME satisfaction. If he could have stayed healthy and if Freel wouldn’t have started slumping (along with everyone else but Aurilia and Valentin) who knows where we would have been right now. There’s always next year, but we need some pitching… BADLY!