Loading ...As per the blog, ProjectProspects.com:
Cincinnati Reds
1. Homer Bailey, RHP: A 2004 first round draft pick, Bailey, 20, started the season in High-A Sarasota and aced that test with a 10.06 K/9 ratio and a paltry 1.00 WHIP. Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga in mid-June, Bailey continued to improve, this time putting up a 10.19 K/9 ratio and a 1.15 WHIP to go along with just one home run in 68.0 innings (he gave up six in 70.2 A+ innings).
Bailey has the build, stuff, and competitive spirit to be a frontline starter as soon as 2007. His fastball touches 97 mph and he offers a plus-plus curveball to go with his changeup and slider. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righty has continued to grow physically, adding an inch and 15 pounds last year. With his frame and velocity, Bailey reminds us of Josh Beckett – though he hasn’t had quite as amazing K/9 rates as Beckett did in the minors, he has given up fewer home runs.
After pitching 103.2 regular season innings in 2005 and 138.2 in 2006, Bailey still may not be ready to pitch a full season in the majors, but that won’t keep the Reds from giving him a shot at opening 2007 in their rotation.
If he continues to improve, I think you’ll see Homer in a Reds uniform in ‘07, but I don’t believe it’ll be coming out of ST.
2. Joey Votto, 1B: Don’t get us wrong, we really like Jay Bruce, but Votto, 22, just kept giving us reasons to rank him No. 2. For example, Votto was one of only five 20/20 men in the entire minor leagues in 2006. His 22 home runs and 24 stolen bases came as he maintained a 955 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. Votto was successful in 77.42% of his stolen base attempts, so the 6-foot-3, 220-pound lefty could keep getting the green light when he is promoted to the big leagues. How many recent 20/20 major league first basemen can you think of? (Derrek Lee went 30/20 in 2003 and Jeff Bagwell went 30/30 in 1997 and 1999.)
The 2nd round draft pick from 2002 put up .319/.408/.547 vitals in 508 at bats in 2006, rebounding like a slinky from his .256/.330/.425 A+ 2005 season. Votto had 46 doubles and 22 home runs – both easily career highs – and sports good plate decipline (1.40 K/BB ratio). Likely ticketed for Triple-A Louisville, if Votto keeps up his 2006 pace, he could be ready to contribute for the Reds by mid-2007.
I think Votto will get a shot to make the team in ‘07, but unless he completely outplays Hatteburg or Hatteburg is traded to make room for Votto, he starts the season at Louisville. I don’t see him sitting on the bench to play once a week or less at age 23.
3. Jay Bruce, OF: Performance-wise, Bruce, 19, has been one of the best high school hitters out of a 2005 draft that also included Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Upton. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound lefty hit .291/.355/.516 with 42 doubles, 16 home runs, and 19 stolen bases in 28 attempts (67.86%) at A-Dayton in 444 at-bats. Bruce has amazing potential but needs to work on his plate discipline (2.41 K/BB ratio) along with his base running.
High school hitters taken in the top 15 picks of the 2002-2004 drafts include: Matt Bush, Chris Nelson, Billy Butler, Neil Walker, Delmon Young, Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Lastings Milledge, B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore, Jeremy Hermida, Khalil Greene, and Russ Adams. So, you’re looking at a very high percentage of major leaguers here and a decent amount of players with star potential.
Bruce will likely start 2007 in High-A Sarasota, and may remain there all season. It’s unlikely that he’ll get any time at the big league level in the next year due to his age and development, The Reds hope he can be Ken Griffey Jr.’s successor in center field. But by the time he breaks into the majors, Bruce could be one of the top five prospects in the game.
My only complaint with this is they don’t take into account that he missed most of the last month of the season, which affected his numbers.
Khalil Greene was drafted out of Clemson. I believe he was the Golden Spikes winner his senior year.
So you feel he should have been rated higher than Votto?
I don’t know….I’ve seen Bruce a lot and am VERY IMPRESSED. I’ve only seen Votto play a couple of times (last year, his bad year and he was still far and away the best hitter on that team).
He’s 3 years older…?
I just don’t know. I hope both are hitting the ball at GABP someday.
In my opinion Jay Bruce is easily ahead of Joey Votto. Jay Bruce will be in the majors for 2 years by the time he is the same age Joey Votto is right now and he just finished up AA.
Joey Votto is 23 right now, Jay wont turn 20 until April. I like Joey Votto, but Jay Bruce is top 15 in the minors right now. Votto is not that type.
Votto is ahead right now, as he has succeeded at AA. Bruce has a higher ceiling, but a long way to go.
i agree with shawn, there’s no way bruce is higher than votto right now. I think bruce’s age is a negative not a plus, it means he has a long way to go and he might not make it.
It’s pretty well established that players hit there prime’s at ages 25-28 or there abouts. I’d much rather have Votto coming into the majors a few years before that than Bruce coming up with a long time until he reaches his prime.
Votto is ahead of Bruce in terms of level, but as far as who has the brighter future, there is no doubt in my mind that Jay Bruce has the much brighter future. Jay is further in his development than Joey was at the same age, and he outperformed him at the same level at a year younger. I guess the way I look at prospect rankings is more of a lean on higher potential mixed with age/level numbers. I am not much into the “well this guy performed at a higher level” when it comes to the top tier prospects like Jay Bruce. If say Jay were a 20 year old 8th round draft pick, I would be a little more skeptical, but he was a first round 5-tool talent who is a top 15 prospect in all of baseball. I really like Joey Votto, but it would be hard to see him ranked any higher than 20, no matter how anyone is doing their rankings.
Everyone has their opinions, that is just mine.
I would agree that Bruce is probably a better prospect, and should be ranked higher if we rank such things, as others do. The point is simply that Votto is much closer to the bigs, can help the team as soon as next year, and should be getting a cup of coffee in Cincy now.
Just depends on the definition of prospect in how they are ranked. Those ranking ceiling as the most important factor would rank Bruce higher. Those taking greater account into expected major league impact would rate Votto higher because he is closer to the majors putting up AA numbers that exceeded Bruce’s single-A numbers. Bruce’s injuries this season could cause someone to take a cautious approach to his rankings, given how injuries can have an impact on development and ability to reach the majors.