Loading ...This post from Jeff got me thinking:
When the dust settles on the 2006 campaign, I would imagine Reds fans would have more hope for the future of this franchise than they’ve had in many a year.
Is that true? It has been a very fun year in many ways, though we must be honest and say that the season hasn’t been nearly as successful as many think it was (we have a losing record, folks). But the high points were very high, and we had a ton of fun following this team during the 2006 season, didn’t we?
But do you have more hope for the future than you’ve had in a while? I think my answer is yes, but it’s a qualified yes. With Bob Castellini at the helm, I’m very confident that the Reds will be winners at some point in the future. It didn’t happen this year, and I think there’s a very good chance that it won’t happen next year, but someday Castellini will be the owner of a legitimate playoff-caliber team.
I’m decidedly less-optimistic about the Reds’ short-term prospects. I fear that “The Trade” has done serious damage to the cause of a winning team next year. The offense is no longer the slugging wonder that it was, and the pitching hasn’t been improved one bit.
What do you think? Do you have more hope? Even for next year?
Let’s hear your opinions.
Hope for the Future
Redleg Nation doesn’t see a bright near term future for the Reds as others do. I’m decidedly less-optimistic about the Reds’ short-term prospects. I fear that “The Trade” has done serious damage to the cause of a winning team next…
I like Castellini a lot, but have much less confidence in the management team that he installed. John Allen is still here, Krivsky is a huge questionmark, and Jerry Narron doesn’t seem to understand that this isn’t the same game that was played in the ’70’s.
Krivsky took a team strength (outfield) and turned it into a weakness without making the areas he “improved” a team strength. He made the outfield mediorce, the rotation is better than it was, but still below average, and the bullpen…I can’t think of them without wanting to spit.
I’m giving him the winter to show that he isn’t just a different version of Jim Bowden (The “throw it all against the wall and see what sticks” philosophy.) But I’m not real hopeful.
I don’t think we can count on the NL to be as bad as it was this year, so I don’t have a lot of hope for next year either. Castellini needs to open his wallet if we are to have a fair shot.
Our slugging wonders did not result in a winning campaign, or even come close. Yet, there are more slugging wonders on the way. I think the in-season re-tooling will be a downtime overhaul this winter.
I’m less optimistic now about next season. Originally I was willing to give Krivsky the benefit of the doubt, but “The Trade” was a huge mistake. It seemed like he was making moves just for the sake of making moves as the year went on.
I’m amused by the thought and mindset that “Castellini needs to open his wallet if we are to have a fair shot.” Really? Spending for whom, and what? Look at that free agent list and outside Soriano, who’s worth any sort of money, or is any sort of upgrade? As if spending big bucks for players (see Blue Jays, Toronto) is a cure-all.
As someone noted on Lancaster’s blog a little while back, it’s the small moves and the pinpoint moves that often make a difference.
… it’s the small moves and the pinpoint moves that often make a difference.
No, it’s not. Teams need great players to win. They don’t need 15 great players, but they can’t get by with 15 guys who are barely above-average.
I’m not at all optimistic about next year. At least during the past 5 crappy years, we knew the hitting would be strong, and “if they can only luck into some pitching,” they’d have a chance.
Now, they have to find pitching AND hitting, and offense isn’t nearly as variable, or easy to find, as pitching. Not to mention that half the offense may have just had their career years, and could be looking at significant dropoffs.
Yes, I have more confidence in this team and its ability to succeed now than I have in many years. And I’ll be cheering and complaining all the way!
I don’t see anything on the horizon for this team that makes me want to roll over in my crib and shit my pants. I am an old school kind of guy and I don’t pay much attention to batting stats. They are usually pumped up against weak pitching.
Show me players with some desire and some heart that will fight on every last play and every pitch. Not some jerk trying to pump up his numbers against somebody’s fifth starter for contract time. This team has very few players that can truly handle a bat and make a pitcher work hard for every out. It is not good at moving runners along and manufacturing runs.
If I hear one more time about the lost production from the trade I think I’ll puke. Sure they beat the hell out of 4th and 5th starters and then struck out 15 to 20 times against the 1, 2 & 3 starters. But man did they have some great stats. And the most important stat of all, Wins & Losses, has been a little heavy on the loss side.
The defense needs improving, particularly in the outfield. It is helping to kill the pitching. Not just the obvious errors but the mental mistakes and lack of hustle miscues that don’t show up on stat sheets. Improving the defense will significantly improve the pitching.
As a prime of example of misleading stats, Big Klu always had great defensive stats. But I watched him for a lot of years and anything hit 2 feet either side of him was through. Stats just don’t show the true picture.
I don’t see much help coming from the farm next year. Real help is at least two years away. Unless WK pulls two or three rabbits, and it will take two or three, out of the hat then next year will look a lot like this year.
The way I see it, most of Krivsky’s moves have panned out except “the Trade.” Broson Arroyo has upgraded our starting pitching, David Ross is no fluke at catcher, and Brandon Phillips was a true steal at second base. For next year, Krivsky will have more time to make these kind of pick-ups and more. He will jettison Jason LaRue and Royce Clayton, and use some of the cash gained from that infamous Kearns/Lopez deal to find us another decent starter and a bonafide closer. Then it’s just a matter of picking up another quality bat or two, from hopefully well-rounded players (i.e. guys that can also play D and hustle).
As a Reds fan you’re always optimistic but it means more now because we have positive ownership. The ’stove’ this season will be hot because they’ll be big changes. This team has too many old guys and has to get younger to be on the road to the playoffs. LaRue, Hatteberg, Aurilia, Griffey, Weathers, should all be traded for what we can get out of them. Bring up Votto, Bruce and Bailey. Move Phillips to shortstop and either trade for a secondbaseman or put Harris there. Add a ’stopper’ to the starting rotation. The relief pitching of Schoenweis, Bray, Coffey, Belisle, and Majewski is adequate. Not a playoff team yet but better than the ‘over the hill’ crowd we have now.
i don’t see how anyone can say the pitching hasn’t improved, just look at the team ERA as the year progressed. It started off better than last year and just got better. and since when is hitting harder to find than pitching? Why haven’t the reds been able to find pitching for the last 5 years?
If Dunn, griffey, and freel hadn’t crapped their pants in the second half the trade would have looked a lot better. the three of them have an average career OPS of .860, and put up an average OPS of .753 in the second half this year. That’s all of your outfielders playing 100 points below expectations, i don’t know how you get around that.
How was Kriv supposed to know that three of his new starters were going to forget how to hit? When players have bad years, your team generally sucks.
Chris, 15 GREAT players? Hand me a hit off that weed you’re smokin’. Dude. The only teams that ever had 15 GREAT players were the 27 Yankees, 30 A’s and 76 Reds, and that’s arguable for 15 GREAT.
i think Bruce is probably 2 years away still, he just finished low A.
I have more confidence in the team now than i did last year by a lot. Phillips, Ross, Arroyo, and Lohse all add to the team for years to come. Hatteberg is a perfect (randa) stopgap for Votto, EdE is established, Harang is established, there’s a good core to build on.
One of the biggest questions to me will be the griffey/freel situation. They have to figure out what positions they play before they can really target trades and free agents. This season should be enough to get grif to move to a corner, but will it? Is freel a supersub or a starter, and if he starts, where? Second? Right? Center? There are some decent outfielders that could be added, but they have to figure out where they need help.
We have a motivated front office, and i think we can expect at least one big trade and one big signing. with bailey and votto on the way some time next year, i think that we’ll be a contending team next year with that.
I see the glass half-full. We have a core of young everyday players to build on (Dunn, Phillips, EdE, Ross). We have 2/5 of a good rotation, and enough filler (Milton, Lizard, Lohse, etc.) to make it respectible. Jr.’s willingness to move into right would go a long ways towards helping the OF defense. If we can “luck” into a good bullpen, this team could win the Central.
‘52: agree that stats don’t tell the whole story, but fielding stats have come a ways. Metrics like Range would show Big Klu’s inability to get balls hit near him.
Spending for whom, and what? Look at that free agent list and outside Soriano, who’s worth any sort of money, or is any sort of upgrade? As if spending big bucks for players (see Blue Jays, Toronto) is a cure-all.
Think outside the free agent box. We need a starting pitcher and a rightfielder badly. If the team doesn’t spend some money on one of these two positions, the team is going nowhere. There will be teams willing to unload salaries without getting the world in return. We’ve seen that patchwork and bandaids don’t work. Another year of patchwork and bandaids isn’t going to get us anywhere.
I don’t appreciate the hostility of your tone either.
Daedalus,
Agree we need one more strong pitcher but I would rather see us pick up a good centerfielder.
Either Grif moves to a corner or out the door. Sure wuld be nice to move Dunn. His few HRs don’t make up for his inability to cover more than 100 sqft.
Rick, go back and read my post. I said they don”t need 15 great players, but they do need some.
‘52, Dunn’s HR most certainly do make up for his defensive shortcomings (though I’d like to see them remedied). He’d have to make 3-4 errors to “negate” every HR. Do you really think he misses 150 balls that a normal LF would catch?
Al, you had me until you said that Lohse would be a contributor for years to come. There’s no real evidence of that, other than a couple nice starts after switching leagues.
RedsFanSince52,
Do you think Griffey will move? I’d love to see him move, in fact, he’s killing us in CF, but he seems to be caught in some mental time warp or something and he still believes he’s 30.
I think you may be right – the outfielder at this point is more important. We had decent starting pitching for most of the year and with Bailey most likely waiting for the second half of next year, it’d be better to go for an outfielder.
Maybe some team will take Hollandsworthless, Denorfia, Wise, LaRue, and the bullpen for a good outfielder?
i think people are getting too bent out of shape over what should have been a really low expectation transition year. Yes The Trade puts a shadow over things, but i’ve read that kearns was ousted for personal reasons and felo was no real loss. we can recover from The Trade.
whether we sign a free agent starting pitcher this offseason i think will depend on Eric Milton. If he’ll be ready for next season then i don’t think the front office will consider it a priority with Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse, and then Claussen, wilson (probably on a minor league deal) Elizardo, and Dumatrait all in competition for the 5th starter role until Bailey arrives (my guess a month, month and a half).
If you take out the two starts milton had when he was hurt his ERA on the year has been 4.44. I think they’ll be willing to go with a rotation that has two guys likely to be under 4, and two guys who should be under 4.5, and the best of that mix plus a few other non-roster/prospect guys for the fifth.
i think Kriv and Co should try to design an 87 win team on paper, something like an .800 team OPS and a 4.30 team ERA, and hope that that keeps them in it ’til the end. It should be doable, and a year like aht could bring in enough money in the following year (when milton leaves) to take on a significan salary or two.
I like your thinking Al. It’s realistic and leaves some room for flexibity. Still, I think we could do a little more than tinker here. We don’t have any big arbitration paydays in front of us, the payroll for next year shouldn’t significantly increase unless BC cracks open his wallet. For argument’s sake, lets assume we can’t unload Griff because of his backloaded deal. This leaves Dunn as the only high value bargaining chip we have outside of the core of untouchables (Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, EdE, BP). If you can flip him and his $10mil salary for a high profile AL pitching prospect and an established starting outfielder (while freeing up $5mil to spend on a closer), I think you gotta make that trade. It would leave you with a solid 4 man rotation, a closer, and a middle of the league offense. Heck, if BC decides to spend for a free agent starting pitcher, I think this team could be a force to be reckoned with. Looking around the division, they seem to be floundering as much as us, which makes another gradual step up to 87 wins feasible.
I have more confidence in this team because of Castellini. Everything I’ve read about him indicates that he is in baseball to win. That in itself is an improvement in the type of ownership the Reds have had in the recent past. I think the team is one position player, and 4 pitchers (2starters, 1 reliable set up man and one closer) away from being a contender. I realize that’s alot. I’m not trying to minimize the problems. It just seems to me that Castellini is willing to do what is necessary to get those type of players on board. I’m not sure when it will happen but I’m confident the will is there in the front office to try. That’s encouraging.
While so many mourn the Kearns/Lopez deal and insist that Bowden “owned” Krivsky, how is it that Washington is going nowhere fast and traded two young pitchers away from a staff that has an ERA over 5? And, Majewski and Bray are likely to help out our bullpen past this season. I guess when a trade breaks a rule of tradition (don’t trade relievers for everyday players, and yes I left out “middle” on purpose) it must be viewed as a bad deal. I really don’t see where either team was helped this year, and I would say the probability of the principlals (Majewski/Bray) making a difference next year is higher for the Reds holdovers than the National. In fact, I’ll be surprised if the new owners even hold over Kearns and Lopez.
If Washington is going nowhere, it’s not because they gave up two relievers for two plus position players. I do think that Maj and esp. Bray will help us next year and beyond, but the main goal of that trade was to help us out THIS year. Which clearly didn’t happen.
Cary: There’s no way Majew/Bray are going to out-contribute Felipe/Kearns. That’s just wishful thinking.
Sultan: You say that they should trade Dunn for a pitching prospect plus “an established starting outfielder” (who makes $5M, by your math), and that this will leave them with “a middle of the league offense.” How? You’re talking about a Juan Encarnacion type – a 100 point OPS drop-off from Dunn. And this offense already sucks.
Dunn might be the only chip the Reds have, and he’s played like crap since his Month of Contact Hitting, but trading him, short of a silly offer from someone, isn’t the solution.
This team doesn’t suck because of the offense, it sucks because we don’t get consistency from 3/5ths of our starters and the bullpen is a crapshoot. Unless Dunn’s value has diminished because he didn’t hit for 2/3rds of the season, I don’t see how you wouldn’t flip him for 3 solid players. I’ll refer to my earlier comments, that even in a simulated league you don’t build your team around a couple of all or nothing outfielders, especially a small market one. Let me ask you this, how do you foresee the Reds improving their performance next year by keeping Dunn?
Reds have scored 4.3 runs per game since the allstar break. If they had played that poorly all year, they would have only scored 648 runs so far this season – outscoring only Tampa Bay.
How good does pitching need to be to support that kind of run support? Only Detroit, San Diego and Minnesota has allowed fewer than 648 runs so far this year.
Seems like the team sucks because of the offense.
Dunn is not the problem. Repeat.
He’s not exactly part of the solution, either. If he is, I just want someone to put on their GM cap and explain how you build a contender w/ this guy eating up so much payroll. Really, who was that guy who went 1-18 w/ RISP during the 1-9 west coast slide that dropped them from contention?
Greg, is it just a coincidence that those 3 teams are likely headed to the playoffs?
Chris, you are absolutely right. Dunn is not the problem. His strikeouts and low batting average stick out because he needs to be surrounded by other players with more consistent batting averages and less tendency to wear down at the end of the season. The whole team has a tendency to strikeout way too much.
His 40+ hrs, 90+ rbi seasons are something any winning team would want on the roster. His strenghts just needs to be complimented by players who can also make up for some of his weeknesses.
He is not yet the type of player that makes or breaks a team’s season..(ie Bonds or Ryan Howard) But if he cut down on those strikeouts and long batting slumps, he could be. The Reds are still several players away from being a consistent playoff caliber team, but Dunn is a guy I’d keep around. His upside is enormous.
Sultan – that’s my point exactly. Holding your opponents to that few of runs gets you into the playoffs. Scoring that many runs does not.
Over the course of a season you have to score more runs than you allow to be over .500 and make the playoffs. To score so few of runs as the Reds have in the 2nd half, they’d have to have one of the top 3 pitching staffs in all of baseball to allow fewer runs than they’ve scored, win more than they lose, etc.
Detroit – allowed 612; scored 745
Padres – allowed 638; scored 678
Twins – allowed 639; scored 748