Loading ...By my count, the team has averaged 4.47 Runs per game in the Post-Kearns/Lopez era. That is a full-season pace of 724 runs, which would’ve ranked 7th in the NL last year (The Real Reds scored 820, and ranked first).
Before The Trade, the Reds scored 447 runs in 89 games (5.02 per game). That’s an 814 pace – almost exactly what they scored in 2005 (5.05 per game). I’m not blaming the entire second-half drop-off on The Trade, but it didn’t help. The stated purpose was to improve the pitching and defense. Did that work?
After The Trade, the Reds have allowed 4.75 runs per game (770 over 162 games). That would’ve tied Pittsburgh for 13th in the 16-team NL. (The Real 2005 Reds allowed 5.45/889/Last).
Before The Trade, the Reds were allowing 5.25 runs per game (850 pace – would’ve been just behind PIT at 14th, last year).
2005: 5.03 Scored, 5.45 Allowed. (73-89 record, 75-87 Pythagorean record)
2006 1st Half: 5.02 Scored, 5.52 Allowed. (45-43 record, 40-48 Pythag. record).
2006 2nd Half: 4.47 Scored, 4.75 Allowed. (28-30 record, 27-31 Pythag. record).
The team’s Pythagorean winning pct. actually improved in the second half (.470, compred to .453), which surprises me. That may be due to a smaller sample size, and a couple of 14-run games thrown in there. Or probably bad math, since I think their Pythag. winning pct is closer to .490 on the year.
[NOTE: I know I'm off by a run and maybe even a game somewhere in here, but I'm not going back to find it]
[UPDATED: Joel corrected my numbers, below. I didn't double-check him, but you can assume he's more accurate than me.]
I’d guess that the runs allowed improvements came from other folks acquired like Guardado,Lohse,etc than Majewski/Bray. There have been a lot of pitching changes made, but the primary Offensive change has been to remove Kearns and Lopez from the lineup.
I think that’s exactly right. What if we had kept Kearns/Lopez, and went and got all those other pitchers anyway–most of whom we got by giving away nobody (despite being told at the time of The Trade that this was the price you had to pay for pitching).
I’m not totally down on the trade. It could still work out, though I doubt it. I think many Reds fans-including me-probably overvalue Kearns and Lopez. However, Bray and Majewski have some ground to cover before we see them as being the kind of middle relivers you would trade an everyday player for.
Remember how excited Jerry Narron was to get Royce Clayton?
Some corrections, because I’m anal like that:
pre-trade: 45-44 actual record
RS: 448 (5.03 R/G)
RA: 462 (5.20 R/G)
Pythag: 43-46
post-trade: 28-30 actual record
RS: 255 (4.40 R/G)
RA: 271 (4.67 R/G)
Pythag: 27-31
total season: 73-74 actual record
RS: 703 (4.78 R/G)
RA: 734 (4.99 R/G)
Pythag: 71-76
So their pythag record wasn’t as bad as you listed for the first half. Not sure where you got the pitching numbers, but that looks like where the problem is.
kearns struck out with the bases loaded last night to end the game and a potential rally. he’s gotten fat again. really, it’s quite noticable. maybe he’s depressed and eating all the time.
Thanks, Joel. I entered every game’s results on a spreadsheet, which most certainly included some fat-fingering. Do you have access to real numbers, or did you do the same thing I did (only better)?
thing is you should look at just the bullpen numbers when you look at the runs allowed, since that’s what we were supposedly addressing. they actually improved quite a bit, but were balanced by our starting pitching falling off.
That is very true Al. The trade looks really ugly now and it will until Bray and Majewski start pitching at a higher level. Probably won’t see anything better than the #s he put up for Washington out of Gary but Bill has much potential.
I still think they got rid of them for SOMEBODY so as to not be slammed by fans when they realeased the both of them to Free Agency for nothing at season’s end.
If they had wantedto keep them past this year, i highly doubt this trade would have ever occured. I mean think about it… Is it merely coincidence that both contracts expired this year. At least they got something while they could.
Why are we STILL talking about this trade
Kearns and Lopez aren’t free agents until after the 2007 season.
It appears starting pitching has been consistent all year. I got the splits for the Reds from ESPN.com.
Preallstar, rotation gave up 67% of the runs while pitching 70% of the
innings. 4.57 ERA. 5.02 RA
Preallstar, bullpen gave up 33% of the runs while pitching 30% of the
innings. 5.26 ERA. 5.75 RA
Postallstar, rotation gave up 69% of the runs while pitching 67.4% of the
innings. 4.59 ERA. 4.82RA
Postallstar, bullpen gave up 31% of the runs while pitching 32.6% of the
innings. 3.83 ERA. 4.47RA
ERA in a Reds uniform:
Majewski – 10.32 ERA
Bray – 4.13 ERA
The trade looks really ugly now and it will until Bray and Majewski start pitching at a higher level.
Whatever Bray and Majewski do next year won’t make the trade look that much better because the trade was made to make the 2006 playoffs.
Neither guy was a free agent, or will be for a while.
And I looked at TOTAL runs scored and allowed, because the trade was designed to address pitching AND defense – presumably the full game’s worth of defense, not just the innings when Bray and Majewk were pitching.
Chris, rumor has it that I have this utility belt that does all of this data manipulation for me, but really it’s just a bunch of spreadsheets. As you know, any good stathead would rather look at spreadhseets than a real game.