Loading ...Here’s an open thread to discuss anything you want, about the Reds or anything. Please feel free to use the thread to cheer on the Mets against the hated Cardinals so that the Reds can remain just a game back. Right now, it’s looking good, but the Cards have Pujols, so anything’s possible.
What’s on your mind, around baseball or otherwise? Any suggestions for Redleg Nation? Let’s hear it.
Mets win; almost gave the game away though, scary…
Truly encouraging to see Mulder hit the kind of form we all knew he could.
Makes today’s winnable game versus the ‘Stros that much more disappointing. We could have been tied for first place.
Oh well, I didn’t really expect to win today, and I’m very happy with taking two out of three from Houston. Gotta keep winning series.
I’m scared about this upcoming West Coast swing, though.
Any one else think maybe we should make a run at David Wells? I loved him when he was here, and he would be great for the run here at the end of the year. And I would feel a lot better with him out there than any other number 5 starter we’ve had all year!!!
(In case you haven’t heard, he cleared waivers and Buster Olney is saying teams are inquiring about him)
That game today was a heart breaker, but like you, I thought Oswalt would beat us.
I hand it to Coffey though, that ump sucked it today!!!
Call for math help!
I’m wondering if someone could tell me the statistical likelihood of a team with a given winning pct putting up a certain record over the rest of the season? I’m just asking the math, not whether it’s likely from a baseball perspective.
Another way of asking: What are the chances that out of 20 tosses of a coin, you’ll get 15 heads (rather than 10)?
I just want to know what are the chances Narron will make a t least a few good decisions before the seasons over??? Actually your question is much harder, the answer to mine is somewhere between, slim and none!!!!
By the way, anyone want to help design a logo for a t-shirt?
Mulder looked bad, in command and velocity. They were saying on the broadcast that he probably needs to have surgery on his shoulder and shut down this year. His rest from being on the DL didn’t seem to do him much good. Even with a gimpy Mulder, that rotation is Carpenter and four bums, none of them with a sub-5 ERA this year.
Chris, thanks for the probability flashback. I couldn’t tell you how to calculate that, but just by writing it out I figure that the chances of winning 3 or 4 games out of 4 is 5/16 (31%). Not sure if you can extrapolate that for 15 out of 20.
Ken, I looked at some formulas, and eventually found a calculator. Some things journalism school just doesn’t prepare you for.
In any event, here’s what I was getting at. Let’s start with the assumption that it will take 85 wins to win the WC.
The Reds’ current record is 66-61; Padres are 64-62; Phils are 63-62.
I’m wondering what each team’s chances are of winning at least 85 games. This assumes, of course, that each team’s current winning pct. is the true measure of their level, and it ignores the quality of opposition, and the 6 head-to-head meetings between SD and CIN.
In any event, math tells me that the probability of a .519 team (Reds) playing .543 ball, or better over 35 games (19-16, leading to the 85 wins) is only 45.6%.
The good news is that a .508 team (SD) has only a 23.1% chance of winning 21 (or more) of 36 games.
And a .504 team (PHI) has only a 17.4% chance of winning 22 (or more) of 37.
The Reds may not get to 85, but the teams behind them have an even steeper climb.
Padres are beating Brad Penny and the Dodgers right now. Not good.
Can you believe we’re almost to September, and we’re watching the out-of-town scoreboard?
I still don’t know who to root for in the West. I think I want them all to split every series. (Though having the Padres win the West increases my chances of seeing a potential Reds playoff game).
Wow, Penny just got ejected, and I think he’s going to strangle the umpire. I wish he were a Red.
These umpires are idiots. They’re making things worse.
After watching Baseball Tonight, two things were obvious: (1) Taveras’s bunt ‘single’ only happened because of his hit streak, and
(2) Coffey had good reason to be pissed when two consecutive pitches which were obvious strikes were called balls. I don’t know what Narron was doing and why he didn’t come out and argue for Coffey, because Coffey getting ejected with a 3-1 count wasn’t exactly ideal. In any case, its a shame our stadium doesn’t have Questec.
Some bad news. Dave Williams is pitching Thursday for the the Mets (against the Cards). So we BETTER win tomorrow or we’re gonna be two games back.
Chad – is that a Red’s related shirt? If so I’d be interested in designing something for it.
Farney and Freel love each other
Hilarious, SchrockStar. Can we use that?
And abner, yes, we’re looking to design a Redleg Nation t-shirt.
Chad, I’m all over the shirt thing if you need help, just give me the nod and I’ll get back to you with something good.
Did anyone else hear about the letter that Bob Castellini gave to all the players as they boarded the plane for Cali. Tracy Jones read it on 700 at around 6:30 last night. I’ll relay the news later if anyone is interested.
As for yesterday’s game. Taveras was definitely out but it was extremely close. More than likely it was his streak that gave him the benefit, I will agree (which is total bullshit by the way).
The umpiring crew was terrible for the Reds the whole series, at least the first 2 games they found ways to win around them regardless.
But those strike/ball calls were pathetic yesterday. Especially the first disputed pitch from Coffey. That was right down the pipe. The 2nd could have gone either way, but not after making that terrible first call. Wally Bell had to know that he was wrong on that first pitch. Geez…
Chad,
Of course you can use that for whatever you want. Enjoy
Chad:
In terms of ideas for the site, I’d love to have an attendance tracker, where it keeps track of yearly attendance. Plus, you could check it out after the game to see if the Cincinnati faithful FINALLY get around to going to the ballpark.
Chad-
I’ll email you directly re: the shirt.
My idea for the T-shirt:
Red and White Camo Pattern with black collar and sleeves.
Image on the front would be a mock-up of Iwo Jima only the soldiers are pushing up a “Redlegnation” flag with Mr. Red possibly on it.
On the back just something simple like redlegnation.com
or if we wanted to get a little more expensive do names and #’s.
maybe just solid red for the shirt like the sunday alternate uni but I’m diggin’ my Iwo Jima idea… someone more artistic than me should play around with that and see how it looks.
How about a Gary Majewski caricature?
Thank ya New York for beating them Cards … AGAIN and AGAIN