Loading ...John Fay has an article that is mostly about the EE not playing situation, but what got my attention were Narron’s comments about Clayton:
“The play Royce made at the end of the game in Milwaukee (Friday) was as good as you’re going to see,” Narron said. “I know everyone fan-wise was disappointed we didn’t turn the double play (in the seventh inning Tuesday). There’s a lot of guys who don’t make that play in Milwaukee.”
I don’t remember the play in Milwaukee on Friday, but “everyone fan-wise” was disappointed? Does that mean Reds coaches weren’t disappointed? It was a routine play that has to be made.
And if we’re going to talk about great plays being made defensively and make excuses for the bad ones, why is EE singled out? He’s made as many steller defensive plays (and some bad errors) as anyone else, but only his seem to keep him nailed to the bench.
Here’s Narron on why Aurilia’s playing 3B most nights:
“With Richie at third, we’ve got a solid guy at third,” Narron said. “I know Eddie works hard. He’s out there every day with early work.”
Plus this gives me a chance to bench him for good when he doesn’t get enought PAs to keep his hot streak alive.
Why can’t this team EVER seem to make a committment to young players that come up and perform? They don’t seem to ever get the same opportunities that veterans do. If you’ve been in the big leagues for years, you can play here and continue to make the same mistakes that you’ve always made, but if you’re a young player, make a mistake and you’re gone (benched or traded).
all the more reason to shout from the rooftops … “FREE EDWIN ENCARNACION!!!”
Free Edwin Encarnacion!
I was at that game in Milwaukee Friday. EE make two stellar plays, his second was a diving grab of a line drive that would’ve snapped a tie ballgame……….And he got lifted the next inning for Castro. Yeah, Clayton’s play was magnificent, but you’re right, there’s a definite double standard here. Other observations from the game (I was perched above the Reds bullpen): Narron had Ross warming up pitchers down in the bullpen in the late innings instead of on the bench ready to pinch hit……..Weathers is the leader of the relief corps, working the room like the Mayor, going out of his way to make Bray and Majic comfy……..Bray warms up like he’s going to war……half the time Griffey and Dunn never take their hands off their knees when the pitch crosses the plate (no wonder they’re both a step late)……Dunn should try sliding sometimes, it’s amazing how much harder a person is to tag when they do that.
I assume EVER means the in the post Larkin-Daniels-Davis-O’Neill-Morris-Dunn-Kearns-Reese-Casey-Young-Lopez-LaRue era? I mean, Dunn is still on the team, and he and Kearns both were given every opportunity, although another young guy yanked Kearns playing time around some. I don’t think it is as much a historical lack of committment to young guys as it is that perhaps the young guy is preferred over the vet by fans all other things equal, whereas management has done the opposite.
On the EE thing, I would be happy with a D of Phillips at SS, Aurilia at 2b and EE at 3b with Clayton starting his broadcasting career or spending more time with his family.
Dunn was called up mid-year in the middle of a monster minor league season, hit double-digit HR’s in the month he was called up (wasn’t it a Reds record for that particular month?) and pretty much didn’t allow the Reds to consider screwing around with him. He hit 51 HRs that year, all levels combined.
Kearns hasn’t had consistent playing time prior to trades clearing a fulltime position for him this year.
Lopez was not the starting SS last year until Aurilia went on the DL.
I don’t think Aurilia handled himself poorly, defensively, at SS last year. Has he lost that much in a year that he can’t play the position this year?
castellini is trying so hard to make me like the reds organization, and narron is trying so hard to make me hate them. Though i blame krivsky too, there was no need for clayton, he never should have given narron the option.
reading articles like this exhausts me. stuff like this is really the only thing that makes me just want to walk away from the team, follow someone like the redsox. I wish castellini and kriv knew how many fans felt like that.
and wasn’t the critique of lopez that he made the outstanding play but not the routine play? now narron is defending clayton saying the same thing?
as good as you’re going to see???
THAT WAS THE PLAY THAT LOST THE GAME, JERRY MORON!
Exactly what I was going to say, Al. Narron is now totally fine with a SS who makes a sterling play one day, then blows the easy one the next. But at third, he still wants “steady.” The obvious conclusion is that he’s just rationalizing his real bias toward veterans.
Apparently, Narron went to the Dusty Baker school of turning waiver wire retirees into everyday players.
What a Naroon!
So, Edwin makes two plays last night that Rich Aurilia couldnt make if his life depended on it.
1. He took 6 steps to his left and threw off balance to get the runner at first.
2. The one he charged and bare handed and got the runner at first.
Of course, because his bat wasnt so hot, he probably will sit for 5 more days….
I admit to being a big fan of the Castellini/Krivsky/Narron regime… if only because some continuity in management was so badly needed in this organization. I do, however, have to join the consensus that the handling of the left side of the infield has me totally perplexed. I was absolutely, totally convinced that LaRue and Aurilia were being “showcased” prior to the non-waiver deadline. Since they are both still here, I expected them to be nailed to the bench from 8/1 on… this is obviously not the case with Aurilia. He would be an excellent everyday third baseman for a team that had an Encarnacion playing somewhere else in the lineup… he is totally not approriate if it means Encarnacion has to sit.
Can anybody at all make a case for Royce Clayton playing over Castro, Olmedo or even Aurilia at shortstop? Aurilia may not have the range, but if you chart the number of groundballs that several of the Reds pitchers give up to the left side of the infield in any given start, the range issue isn’t as big of a deal as you might think. As long as a player can make the throw and do the turn, lack of range is generally not such a big deal. He may never make “Web Gems”, but it will cost you less than 1 hit per game if he can make the routine plays.
i wrote John Fay and email about his article, and here’s his response in case you’re curious:
“I think’s too small of a sample to make conclusions on the offense. The Reds have faced Glavine, Sheets, Clemens, Pettitte and Penny since the break.
Clayton and Encarnacion are unrelated as far as Narron’s concerned. Castro will play short when Clayton doesn’t.”
doesn’t mention that half of those starters had been in terrible funks before getting to us, but hey.
anyway, the overall message seems clear: it’s going to take a lot more for this to change. Thing about that, we’re tied for the WC at this point, a lot more will take us out of the race. So our season sinks or swims with Rich Aurilia and Royce Clayton.
I’ve been reading John Dewan’s great new book The Fielding Bible. It’s almost like reading a textbook in a class you’re not taking – a lot of flipping back and forth for definitions, etc. That’s because what they’re doing is essentially all new. I’m planning a big post on the Reds-related info in the future – the book has all kinds of great information, all taken from video analysis of every game (not “stats,” if that sort of thing bothers you).
Anyway, my point for now is that (1) Clayton’s range is gone; (2) Castro is still well above average; but (3) to tag onto Dan’s point, the difference between Aurilia and Clayton is more like 1 hit per month, and that’s giving Clayton WAY more credit than he’s worth.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I think a guy like Adam Everett (the best, according to the book) and Jeter (by far the worst, according to every measure they looked at) is something like 50-60 singles a year. That’s about 10-15 runs, which Jeter more than makes up for with his offense. The same would hold true, on a much smaller scale, with Aurilia and Clayton.
I think Narron’s over-prioritizing defense. But much worse, he’s playing the inferior defender, for defensive reasons.
Runs per game before the trade:
Reds: 5.03 (89 games)
Nats: 4.52 (90 games)
After:
Reds: 4.44 (18 games)
Nats: 5.28 (18 games)
Yes, it’s a small sample. Yes, they faced some good pitching. But yes, they traded two above-average hitters.
Chris,
Wow.. thats an amazing number. Thanks,
articles like this infuriate me. what is narron’s problem. if EdE ends up being anything less than a hall of fame third baseman, I will blame narron and krivsky.
I am not a proponent of bringing bailey up, but isn’t krivsky’s whole philosophy that they don’t want to bring him up and then send him back down later, so as not to screw with his head? shouldn’t that same kind of thinking apply to EdE? why is krivsky allowed to get away with the double standard he applies? and please do not try to rationalize by saying he has no control over who plays on gameday–that’s b***s*** spin.
I very well could’ve screwed up the math, but it does feel right (at least the Reds’ numbers. I pay no attention to the Nats).
If a GM starts telling the manager who to play and not play, nobody will ever want to work for him. Its a bad rap to get as a GM.. supposedly, Bowden did some of that and it was a big reason why Willie Randolph turned the Reds down (and, of course, that he made way more money as a Yankees coach than the Reds were offering as a Manager!).. I am not a ‘Nats fan, but isn’t that also, supposedly, part of the problem between Bowden and Robinson now?
Anyone think Griffey’s horrible slump and Ross on the DL may have something to do with the run average dropping off in the last 18 games? I’m not too concerned in a drop on the offensive end, though I would like to see EE get more playing time. I would rather chart the bullpen and see what they do long term, specifically how Bray and Majewski (sp?) match up against the guys who’s innings were taken away. Right now, I’d say it’s not good, especially the way Majewski has struggled, but that’s what I’ll look at long term on this deal.
Surely the slumps don’t help. That was the point raised. A couple of guys slump in the April lineup and you have enough other guys hitting to pick up the slack. Now with fewer hitters in the lineup, a slump is more pronounced.
We’ll also see a drop in run production due to small-ball play.
You can wait to do the math, but 2 relievers aren’t going to provide the same value as two offensive starters.
The only way this deal makes any sense in my mind is for 2007. That’s not how it was advertised, but that’s the only reality that makes sense to me. In excess of $10 million was saved on 2007 payroll by moving Kearns and Lopez. If that money is used to get a #1 starter, then perhaps this deal can be looked at in a different light.
Chris:
Your numbers are right. And if you look closer, before the trade, the Reds were being outscored by about 1/6 run per game (.17 r/g); since, twice as much (.34 r/g).
So much for sacrificing “extra” offense for “improved” pitching and defense.
The only way this deal makes any sense in my mind is for 2007. That’s not how it was advertised, but that’s the only reality that makes sense to me. In excess of $10 million was saved on 2007 payroll by moving Kearns and Lopez. If that money is used to get a #1 starter, then perhaps this deal can be looked at in a different light.
Except:
1. $10 mill/yr isn’t going to get a #1 starter; maybe a #2.
2. How much is it going to cost to replace Kearns? Juan Encarnacion, who isn’t as good offensively or defensively, signed for 3/$15 last off-season; Reggie Sanders (again, not as good) got 2/$10. And that doesn’t address SS. Remember, arbitration depresses a player’s salary, because he can’t shop around. So it will take more to address those positions in the free agent market, not less. No money will be saved, unless Krivsky is happy with the offense.
However, the GM and the manager should get on the same page regarding what each player’s role is. Earlier this season the Royals called up a very good 1st base prospect named Justin Huber. He was killing the ball in AAA. Mike Sweeney goes on the DL and they promote Huber. Buddy Bell says “it’s not fair to Stairs or Mientkevich” for them not to play. So, Huber sits on the bench for 2 weeks with a couple of pinch hits and is demoted later for someone who Bell would play.
At the very least, those two should have had that conversation before Huber was called up, then either Huber wouldn’t have been called up or Baird would have convinced Bell that Huber was the team’s first baseman.
GregD, can you explain your math to me? Kearns is making $1.85M and Lopez $2.7M. I realize both are arbitration eligible, but how do you come up with $10M? Also, since both settled w/o going to arbitration this year, isn’t reasonable to at least entertain the notion they might do the same next year, especially considering neither is having a breakout season?
Pete – I agree $10 million doesn’t get you Barry Zito (probably the biggest FA name in the market this offseason.) I assumed $10 million was the minimum saved and that money was the starting point toward getting an true #1. A Larue contract or something like that would also have to be moved.
Re: RF – I thought Denorfia was supposed to be the answer there. He was the reason any of the 3 outfielders were on the market. He makes the major league minimum next year.
RE: SS – I don’t know. Again, they internal options with Phillips and Olmedo. Phillips is arbitration eligible. Olmedo would make the major league minimum.
I don’t think they’re going to make a big play in the FA market, I’m just saying that’s the only way I can see the trade making sense.
I don’t have any scientific method for coming up with that number. Just a guess based on what other folks are getting in similar circumstances. Perhaps my expectations of 2nd year salary are inflated based on the deal Dunn got?
Kearns is on his way to establishing career highs in almost every offensive category. I see him more than doubling his salary. $5-6 million. Lopez could go $5 million. Am I guessing too high? What’s would you expect as a 2nd arbitration year raise?
Larue to Boston rumors coming true would save another $5 million on 2007 payroll.
Greg:
Well, that’s the thing – Denorfia isn’t nearly as good as Kearns on either side of the ball, and everyone knew that. My hope was more of a Jr/Deno/Kearns OF, with Dunn at 1st. Or trading Jr, with Dunn/Deno/Kearns in OF. But Kearns was clearly the best defensive OF who can hit at the major league level – they cannot replace him without adding significantly to the payroll.
As for SS, I really hope they don’t move Phillips. He plays 2B so well, I’d just leave well enough alone; that said, no other SS in the system (except Aurilia, whom Narron won’t play at SS) plays defense well enough to make up for the drop from Lopez in offense.
So this is what we’re left with:
1. Not enough money for a #1 starter (though money was never offered as a reason for the trade).
2. Not enough money to replace the value of what was lost (free agents who hit and field like Kearns make 8 figures; which means we’d need a SS who pays to play. And Lopez is much better than replacement level). Since there is no one in the system as good as Kearns, he would have to be replaced via free agency. Or Krivsky would have to be happy with a significantly worse offense. And even though Lopez was poor defensively, he was still better overall than every other option in the system (including Clayton, but excluding Aurilia).
Even though it was never stated as such, the money involved cannot make sense in the trade. Which, if I’m counting right, is reason #73 I’ve come up with that the trade made no sense from the beginning.
Here’s a simple/great article about why signing big name free agent starters is a BAD idea in almost every case.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/03/longterm_free_a.php
i think the reds wil probably try to trade for another starter this offseason, looking for another arroyo.
and not to turn this into an offseason thread, but off the top of my head, if the team does decide to drop some cash on free agent players this winter, i’d be real interested in Torii Hunter, Soriano, and probably Craig Wilson, who’s a lot like kearns with less D.
Jr has slumped, but until a couple days ago, the team had FIVE hitters with OPS over 1000 since the all-star break/trade (Dunn, Hat, Encar, Aurilia, Freel). Hat and Encar dropped a hair, but they’re both over 960. It’s nearly impossible to have 4 regulars hitting that well, yet score as few runs as they have. And Ross isn’t slumping, either. He has a 931 OPS since the break (only 15 ABs).
I’m really at a loss.
Clayton’s been crappy (650 OPS), but not especially so, for him. Castro’s hitting (833 in 18 ABs). Even LaRue has been solid (819 in 30 ABs).
Does it really all fall on Junior (640 OPS in 69 ABs), with “help” from Denorfia (476 OPS in 27 ABs).
I suppose the pitchers might not have hit at all, but even that doesn’t explain it. Freel’s baserunning doesn’t help…
al, I’m thinking the Mets (Pedro, Glavine) my disagree. (though I didn’t read the article).
nor can I distinguish b/w “my” and “might.”
also, there’s no way the sox are going to trade for larue and get saddled with his ‘07 year just to get a month of production out of the catcher’s spot. If they deal for anyone, it will be someone who’s a free agent next year.
I forgot Phillips (622 in 69 ABs). He’s been worse than Griffey.
He’s also sitting tonight against Maddux: Aurilia the righty-masher at 2b, Rolls Royce at SS, (Fr)EE at 3b.
Chris, first off there’s the obvious point that one of those guys sat every game. Then freel’s baserunning as you mentioned, and rich’s absurd left/right splits.
So on a given day if we were facing a righty it was more like 2: dun and hat, and that’s how you manage a team into the ground.
Valentin catching tonight: 7 for 17, 4 HR vs. Maddux. Nice work by Narron to catch the obvious.
Clayton: 592 career OPS vs. Maddux
Aurilia: 585
Castro: 160 (bench)
Dunn: 914
Freel: 905
Jr: 1138
Phoenix beat the Cubs in game 1 of the DH. We’re currently tied for the WC.
Good news: Cubs are winning in game 2.
Tonight’s starting lineup…
Douche bag Clayton batting 2nd
Freel RF
Clayton SS
Griffey CF
Aurilia 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Phillips 2B
Denorfia LF
LaRue C
Harang P