Loading ...Here we are at the trading deadline, and GM Wayne Krivsky is dealing. First, he dealt RHP Justin Germano to Philadelphia for 39 year old left-handed reliever Rheal Cormier:
Cincinnati Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky today announced the acquistion of LHP Rheal Cormier from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for minor league RHP Justin Germano.
Krivsky also announced that the Reds and Cormier agreed to a 1-year contract extension through the 2007 season, with a club option for 2008….
Cormier, 38, is 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA in 43 appearances this season and is holding opponents to a .225 batting average. His 1.59 ERA is the lowest among all National League relievers (minimum 25 apps).
Outfielder Brandon Watson was sent back to AAA to make room for Cormier on the roster.
In a second move, Krivsky’s former-Twin obsession reaches magnificent heights with the acquisition of Kyle Lohse:
The Reds also have acquired right-hander Kyle Lohse (and his Joe Mays-esque ERA) from the Twins for minor league right-hander Zach Ward.
Considering Lohse (who’s making $3.95 million this year) already has been demoted to the minors for three weeks and then shunted off to the bullpen upon returning to the majors, I don’t know that he’s the ideal solution here. But you can’t consider it a surprise, in the wake of the Joe Mays experiment.
Okay, I’m going to let these sink in before I pass judgment (I know, that’s a nice change of pace, isn’t it? 
). But at first blush, I’m very puzzled about both of these transactions. Once again, Krivsky appears to have overpaid very significantly, at least for Lohse. Ward is a good prospect.
The Cormier trade, I can live with. I don’t love it, but I’m not going to rail against it.
What do you guys and gals think?
UPDATE: In other news, our old friend Sean Casey was traded to the Tigers.
UPDATE 2: Does anyone think there is any reason to believe that Lohse would be a better fifth starter or relief pitcher than Germano? Plus, he’s more expensive. Puzzling.
UPDATE 3: According to Marc, Lohse will be staying in the bullpen. For now. But I’m worried about what happens later.
For those of you who hold out hope that Krivsky will be able to obtain a decent starter before the trading deadline, there is some indication that he doesn’t consider Lohse to fit that bill. So maybe he’s still working the phones….
UPDATE 4: We’re past the trading deadline. Looks like there won’t be any more pitching coming our way.
I’m wavering on the Lohse acquisition, by the way. More to come….
Every move Krivsky’s made has been to win this year….does anyone believe, best case scenario, that this team can win the World Series? Are you satisfied with making the playoffs this year and then this team struggling for the next few years (a la ‘99)?
I’m disgusted by the direction this GM is taking this team.
TINSTAAPP. That being said… don’t think Lohse is really great. Woo, another ineffective Twins starter!
Oh, and Sean Casey was traded to the Tigers.
There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
There is, however, such thing as a 7+ ERA. Never know, though, change of scenery and easier NL lineups and maybe Lohse can get back to his career averages in the mid 4s. I’d take that. Doesn’t make us a WS contender, but it may let us sneak in with the wildcard. I keep reminding myself that we came into the season expecting to battle the Pirates for 5th place.
DOH … What in the world is going on here?
The Reds traded Germano??? that’s nuts … and I don’t want Lohse on the Reds. He’s been declining for years
Krivsky has now traded 3 of the top 8 picks from the ‘05 draft.
Maybe he can get a 45 year old reliever for Jay Bruce!
I like Cormier, leading the league in ERA and another lefty in the pen.
1. Where is Lohse supposed to go?
2. Ward looked pretty nice to me.
3. What’s the upside with Lohse? I don’t see a single good year on his resume. (Nice ERA last year, but the 1.45 WHIP and pathetic 4.33 K-rate exposes it as a fluke).
This Twins fetish is no longer amusing, and trading anything for Lohse is just sad.
As for Cormier, that’s just another “proven veteran” to DFA next May. He has a sweet 1.59 ERA this year, to be certain. Of course, he had a 5.89 ERA last year. Which one do we get?
If you trade a box of dirt for a box of mud is it really “overpaying”?
More Dan O’Brien guys asked to leave… take your “Pitch to Contact” manual and have a good day.
This team is looking to eat all year at the buffet.
Must be a lot of skyboxes coming up for lease renewal.
You don’t know if it was a box of dirt…for a box of mud. You know what you’re getting, but you don’t know what you’re giving up…and if what you’re getting isn’t good, then giving up something that MIGHT be good makes no sense.
Did anyone else see the Astros offered Oswalt, Ensberg, and Everett for Tejada? At least Krivsky isn’t that crazy-yet.
As far as we know, Brian. There might’ve been some sort of Dunn for Brad Radke offer made.
losing guys like germano doesn’t worry me, he was a mid level prospect and probably destined for the bottom of the rotation and lots of shuttle trips to AAA. It’s actually the type of deal i expected when the nats trade went down, and makes me wonder about that one all over again.
The Lohse deal is obviously a much larger deal, and unlike some posters on marc’s board i think it’s a high risk/high reward deal not low/low.
Ward is a big chip to play. He may not get there, but all reports are that his ceiling is near the top of a ML rotation, which is just what the twins like. So what did we get?
I’ve been a twins fan for a lot of years and seen a lot of games that Lohse pitched, and i can say without doubt, with my best judgemtent, he problems are all mental. If you haven’t seen him, you’ll be surprised in his first game, his stuff is nasty. He looks like a guy who should dominate, but he just hasn’t made it happen. He’s fought the team’s management at every turn, acted like a baby at every turn, and gone to arb hearings both of the last two years (and won).
So initially i’m scared, but he’s still pretty young, he’s got another year of arb before FA, and he won’t win again, so he won’t get much of a raise if any, and it could be a great pick up.
Look what we did with Guardado. Now granted, he’s never been a bad attitude guy, but he was upset with his situation, and we gave him what he wanted and he’s really responded. Lohse complained about never getting respect, getting sent down, and being taken out of the rotation (very Kearnsy if you ask me). Now he’ll get the chance to start, he’ll get to face pitchers, and if he gets his head on straight, he’ll tear this league apart.
Stuff wise he easily slots in as our 3rd starter. So it could blow up and go down like the AJ deal, or he could round out our top three and make us incredibly tough. wow this got too long.
I just want the Reds to stick with a GM longer than 2-3 years, so his boyfriends from his old organizations have moved on to retirement. We went through this with O’Brien (Texas, Houston) and now with Krivsky. I’ll feel a lot safer when Corey Koskie, Jaque Jones, and Doug Mienkeiwictz are retired and out of his grasp.
Radke is retiring after the year, so let’s hope he wasn’t a target.
I’ve seen little evidence that this team is planning for 2007 or beyond. There was lip service paid to the youth of Majewk and Bray, and I guess Homer’s still here, but Krivsky’s created several holes in this lineup for the future (as well as the Griffey-sized one in CF).
You can look at this a couple of ways…the Reds just took on a 38 year old guy (that they signed for next year also) making $2.5M (and I would assume a raise next year) for a young starter who the jury is still out on. Then they traded for a 27 (be 28 soon after the season) who is making $3.95 and was recently demoted to the minors.
So, we took on salary for guys that aren’t any better than what we have…Claussen’s career numbers are better than Lohse and Cormier looks like he’s a LHP that comes in to face a batter or two.
I don’t see the logic in these deals, but if I were Claussen, I’d have my bags packed.
I don’t mind Germano for Cormier. I don’t particularly like it (Krivsky keeps patching the same leak), but I can live with it. The Lohse trade is 10 times worse than the Mays acquisition, becuase we have to pay this clown. It’s only $1.5M or so through the end of the year, but I’ll bet you good money that Lohse is penciled into the rotation next spring.
Dang, this Lohse trade just sucks. I know TINSTAAPP, but still…. I can’t figure it out, other than Krivsky’s Twin-fetish.
(Although I do appreciate al’s analysis above from actually having watched Lohse. Gives me some hope.)
The Cormier deal is not good, but it’s not that bad. I can live with it, and there’s some chance it helps us this year.
On the whole, not a good day for the Reds. One so-so trade, one inexplicable trade. I just don’t understand Krivsky. I still think he’s a decent GM, but he does some strange things.
Wow, I’m glad that there are people with some optimism about this trade. Can’t say that I didn’t see it coming, though I thought we would have to wait until next year before Lohse pitched for us.
Its the devil you know v. the devil you don’t.
Krivsky loves the devils he knows. At least DOB didn’t have the money to go out and get the more expensive ex-guys.
Kyle Lohse is at best a 4 starter. Stuff wise or otherwise. His k rate has been declining since he was called up. He gives up his fair share of homeruns, which will increase in GABP. I don’t understand how this is really any better than Mays.
Does The Amazing Krivsky even realize he’s not working for the Twins anymore? His dealings with them thus far all seem to benefit them more than Cincinnati.
He’s more expensive? (Oh, wait. That’s a reason he’s worse.)
I’m not going into a big debate…..
I really like the trades, they will work out, and you will all see, Krivsky using his connections isn’t all bad. And there is no way Lohse is 10 times worse than the Mays deal. Lohse will come through!
What is the Reds record since the All-Star break? What has happened to their position in the standings since then? How about considering the entire volume of Krisky’s work as Reds GM? Take a look at everybody they have given up versus everybody they have gained. Then take a look at where the team is positioned salary-wise (including arbitration and FA eligible players). Finally, look at how many Low A-Ball pitchers ever make the big leagues. Including those that start out 7-0 with low era’s and whip ratios.
Its all well and good to sit behind a computer and rip individual moves, but how about taking the entire picture as one overall plan (now there is a new word to apply to Cincinnati Reds management)and examine the results to date and the positioning for the future. If this team can convince Griffey to retire (although ego will force us to endure his crawl towards 600 HR’s and continued diminishing statistics and defensive skills), get to the end of the Milton deal, sell LaRue to a Japanese team, finally bid adieu to the Wilson deal, etc. then things will be wonderful. But at least in the meantime the GM has made moves THAT HAVE made this team better on the field. In the end, Krivsky will have made one big mistake this year… keeping McCracken, Wise, etal and letting Cody Ross go after having made the great move to get him.
Please stop with the old Cincinnati negativity and “can’t do” attitude… how about just trying to enjoy a winning GM, winning manager and winning ownership team. I know many of you have no experience with this, but if some of us try really hard, we have faint memories of it.
Thanks Dan. I’ll continue to offer my opinions on the Reds moves, pro or con. You can feel free to do the same. Obviously, you like what Krivsky’s done, which is great. But don’t expect me to “sit back and enjoy,” simply because that’s how you feel.
But to substance, I’m very curious as to one thing you said: “how about taking the entire picture as one overall plan.” I honestly can’t discern one. I can discern a preference for veterans, a preference for former Twins, and a preference against anyone signed by Dan O’Brien. But I don’t see a consistent plan.
I have liked many of Krivsky’s moves, and have said so (Making the “negativity card a non-starter). I didn’t like the Arroyo deal, and was wrong about that. I didn’t even love the Phillips deal, but that was mostly about not having a place to put him. I liked the D. Ross, Guardado, and even the Cormier deal (though maybe not on the heels of the “big trade”). I thought the Majewk trade was idiotic, and still do. I thought he gave Dave Williams away out of spite. Cody Ross I would like to have, but can’t get too worked up about – I couldn’t stand McCracken or Wise, but they only had what – 75 PAs? Not the end of the world.
Also, you want to get rid of Milton, but you’re okay with signing Lohse?
I like the Lohse deal, in spite of the $$ involved. Assuming he stays in the pen, he could be one of those starters turned closers who dominate ala Jenks, Eck, etc. Guardado, as good as he’s been, doesn’t exactly light up the gun and is past his prime. Lohse’s bullpen #s are compelling. Let’s give this one time to breathe. I agree with Dan, the long term well being of this franchise hasn’t changed by these two deals while improving the short term prospects.
Lohse is a starter, and will be a starter for the reds. When the reds get pitching as good as Liriano, Santana, Radke… then Lohse can go to the pen.
And as for the Lohse/Mays comparison, all it does is highlight the problem with stats. It’s like putting me on the hill vs. homer bailey with a broken leg. While we may put up similar numbers, bailey you can get better, me not so much.
When you see Lohse throwing 94 with good movement, you won’t think that he looks like a guy with a 7+ ERA, where as Mays looked every bit of his.
Lohse is a low-risk move. If it doesn’t work out, you non-tender him. Big deal. The team jettisoned a poor defensive shortstop that was showing every sign of having had his career year in ‘05. He was about to become way to expensive for his reasonably anticipated prodcution. They also rid themselves of a right fielder (most common commodity in pro-ball) that was about to become their own personal version of Pat Burrell… only without the payroll room to accomodate such a disparity in cost vs. production.
In the meantime, they loaded up on a mixture of young and veteran relief pitchers… the cheapest commodity in baseball (cost wise), but the one seemingly most difficult to find in the current market. So, if two or three of them work out, you have solved your bullpen problem.
When I say “the overall plan” for the future, I am looking at protecting the prospects that seem very viable (Bailey, Bruce, etc) and using the next tier prospects to win now and attract gate receipts and fan interest. I also look at things like the fact that they traded Joe Randa (albeit not a Krivsky move, of course) at a time when they didn’t need him and got Eddie Guardado and Rheal Cormier for him at a time when they are needed.
The real interesting moves will occur in the free agency market this offseason. The Reds will have some money to spend and some holes to fill.. will ownership come through then?
As far as Lohse vs. Milton… if Lohse pitches well, he will cost them $3 – 3.5 million next year. I don’t think that hardly compares to Milton. 14-14 WL, 4.25 ERA, 175 IP, $3 million, for a #5 starter would make any team happy… is Lohse capable of these numbers?
If you could guarantee those numbers for next year, would you feel better about the trade? That is the bet Krivsky is making… nothing more.
Active trade day!
I think that with Lohse, Krivsky may be trying to strike gold again by bringing over an AL starter with good stuff but a dipping K rate and spiked walk rate. (Arroyo was the first one.) I like al’s optimism about Lohse’ ability, I hope Tom Hume can do something to help that along.
Getting Cormier for Germano is fine, I guess, especially if it means David Weathers is the odd man out (though probably not). Though the pressure is on for Claussen now.
But back to the other trade, I’m really uneasy about giving up Zach Ward. Yes, he’s only in single-A, but I had a good feeling about him. And the Twins have rarely failed to develop a pitching prospect into real value.
Lohse’s comps through age 26 from baseball reference:
1. Chris Carpenter (971)
2. Jeff Weaver (967)
3. Ricky Bones (960)
4. Jason Jennings (958)
5. Jason Schmidt (957)
6. Jeff Suppan (955)
7. Eric Milton (954)
8. Frank Pastore (953)
9. Joel Pineiro (950)
10. Ray Burris (949)
also i noticed that cormier has killed righties this year and been so-so vs. lefties. This makes me think (or hope) it might be weathers who goes.
Why does no one accuse anyone of being ”too positive” when they agree with Krivsky?
And why can’t someone make legitimate arguments against a move without some people complaining about ”negativity.” Why can’t you just argue the points made, if you agree with the trade? That’s what a forum like this is for…discussion of what’s happening right now with the Reds.
That said, the more I think about the Cormier trade, the more I’m alright with it.
And the more I think about the Lohse trade, the more confused I am that Krivsky thought this was a fair deal.
But goodness, if you like the trade, tell us why and we can debate the merits of your argument. We can discuss this trade without accusing people of negativity, can’t we?
Those comps, with an exception or two, are nothing to write home about. Combined with his complete collapse this year, I’m concerned. A lot of guys who looked decent, then turned out rotten.
Cormier – goooood. Lohse – baaaaaad. Want mooooore. Two and a half hours to go.
I have been obsessively checking every major baseball news site for updates (mostly because I am praying Soriano stays with the Nats) but when I saw the Lohse deal, I let out a “What?!” I was hoping for a higher quality starter and am still holding my breath for one more deal…
Daedalus — I’m doing the same. I keep hoping that there’s more, and that Krivsky is going to get us a real starting pitcher before the end of the day.
This is actually kinda funny. At this point, Krivsky has made some dumb moves (and certainly he’s made some good ones, too). But the contrast with Dan O’Brien couldn’t be more stark.
O’Brien was paralyzed with fear and couldn’t make any moves. Krivsky makes a ton of moves, whether they are good or not.
If nothing else, this organization is much more interesting to follow now.
Since we’re doing comps, here are Lohse’s comps from BP’s PECOTA projection system. It’s depressing:
1 Stan Bahnsen
2 Paul Quantrill
3 Jim Perry
4 Reggie Cleveland
5 Dick Drago
6 Ray Burris
7 Jim Colborn
8 Joe Mays
9 Esteban Loaiza
10 Vern Law
And I don’t want him in the bullpen until he starts striking people out.
Agreed, Jimmy. Of course, it was “interesting” to follow in the Bowden/Schott eras, too.
According to Chad’s update above, it looks like Lohse is headed directly for the bullpen. Do not pass go, do not collect $3.5 million dollars.
So maybe Krivsky has a starting pitcher up his sleeve. Given his love for the Twins, what about Liriano or Santana?
If I’m being positive, the Playoff Odds Report now shows the Reds as 62% likely to make the playoffs 34% chance of winning the division; 28% for the WC). I’d prefer a higher WC number, but the closest contenders are the D-Backs at 9.5% (StL wins it 18% of the time, but that would have us winning the division, which is cool with me).
Well, the Reds won at times during the Schott/Bowden era, so I’m going to hope….
I’m not afraid of the D-backs. I’m worried about nearly anyone else, but I just don’t think Zona is very good.
Haha, Randy. I’m telling you, it’s Dunn for Radke.
I like the Cormier move. Yes, he’s old, but three of his last four years (counting this year) have been solid to outstanding, which is obviously a big upgrade for our ‘pen. And he does it in a park very similar to GABP. His declining K rate is a concern, but he still keeps the walks down. Germano was far from a sure thing, and let’s not forget we’re still leading for the WC!
I can live with Ken’s analysis of the Cormier deal. I can’t get worked up over it. And I love the optimism regarding the Wild Card!
It’s the other deal that makes me sick.
chris, are those Pecota projections adjusted for age? i ask because some of those names come up on his BR comps, but for the overall comps not the age 26 list that i posted.
also, Pecota projected the reds 6th out of 6 this year if i’m not mistaken.
My feelings on the trades seem to be the exact opposite of most people here. I think cormier is probably going to regress, and we’ll get the regression part rather than the positive part. So that worries me.
That and i think the Lohse deal will work out pretty well for the reds.
That optimism is what worries me. Some people are saying, “Pipe down with the negativity. Look where this team is!”
Okay, I looked. They’re on pace for an 85-77 season. Only the pathetic-tude of the NL makes that the Wild Card winner. Don’t get me wrong: I’m happy, and will take whatever success I can get. I just don’t think it’s time to start bronzing Krivsky’s telephone yet. (I think Winston Wolfe had something to say about “premature celebrations.”)
Baseball America’s Jim Callis on the trades. Says Ward was “one of the better pure arms in the Reds system.”
PECOTA compares each pitcher against a database of roughly 15,000 major league pitcher seasons since World War II, and 10,000 minor league pitcher seasons from 1998-2005. Pitchers are compared only against others of the same age. PECOTA considers three broad categories of attributes in determining comparability:
well then that certainly doesn’t look great. I wonder why the discrepancy between the two systems. There are certainly some duds on the BR list, but there are also seeral reasons to be excited.
PECOTA’s is certainly more intricate. It seems to consider rate stats a little more than Similarity Scores does. PECOTA also takes into account height, weight, and handed-ness, which might be what eliminates tall guys like Carpenter, Weaver, and Schmidt. They seem to believe (and presumably have some research to back it up) that players of similar body types have similar career paths, at least enough so that it’s worth considering.
At least the Cards’ fans are upset over the Luna/Belliard deal.
i just got in from “work” if you want to call it that and just got updated on these trades, Al makes me feel really good about the Lohse deal because he seems to know what he’s talking about and i’m really happy with the Cormier trade, a close to rock solid guy outta the pen for a guy who probably at best woulda been a 5 starter down the line…no problem with that at all coz i wanna win THIS year. I like what krivsky’s doing but I’m like most of you and worried that Ward will turn out to be really good, but if Lohse only problem was really his attitude and mental issues on the mound, then i like his chances of turning things around in Cincy because you constantly hear new player instantly say this organization is the most fun place they’ve been, so apparently it’s a good environment hopefully it’ll turn Lohse around
Buster Olney just said Krivsky has had the “best trading period of any GM this season”.
Karl Ravech-not very impressed with the Reds starting rotation.
does that just mean the most active? Seems like everyone disses his deals, i can’t imagine someone coming out and saying that not only are they good, they’re actually the best.
olney has supported every krivsky deal…especially the one with the nats…he had an article on espn.com but i couldnt read it coz i’m not an insider
….i couldnt care less about carl ravech’s opinion…he’s there to host..not comment hah
but then again..why would anybody be impressed with it? it has 4 guys in it at the moment
Steve Phillips says the Dodgers are the front-runners for both Soriano and Maddux.
i guess that assures the dodgers wont get soriano n maddux then…phillips has about a 3% success rate on his predictions….but we’ll see haha..wouldnt surprise me LA has to be gettin desperate
Stark is reporting Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez to the Mets.
Hernandez and Perez for Xavier Nady-perhaps Lastings Milledge will be their leftfielder now.
That trade makes the Kearns deal even uglier. If Nady is worth a reliever and an upside guy, what is Kearns worth, especially to a guy who has a history of liking the player.
the one thing that gives me comfort about the kearns deal still…even tho we got 2 relievers..bray can potentially be the long term solution at closer..and that was a big problem coming into the year…i really wouldnt want perez and hernandez..perez has been just god awful
Re: the Pirates-Mets deal. I don’t think the Reds wanted to trade Kearns w/in the division.
Everybody wants to win now and in the future. You want Krivsky to make deal that does not involve anybody on the 25 man roster, and you don’t want him to trade any prospects. You want a big named starter for a few older Louisville players.
You have to remember, we don’t have that much in the system right now, and you can’t blame Wayne for that. If you wanted to win with Casey, and Kearns and Lopez, you should have kept O’Brian in office. There is a reason we were not winning with the players we had before, find the reason why or get new players. Every trade can’t be a May, Stewart, and Helms to Houston for 5 players.
OK now I’m done. I’ll shut up now
haha no need to shut up now..i think u made a pretty good point…just shows there’s a negative side to every deal…thats why its a trade…gotta lose some to gain some
Just a point of reference on the comparisons through age. Here is Bronson Arroyo (not counting this season) from baseball-reference
Mike Harkey (978)
Kevin Foster (975)
Chris Codiroli (974)
Rodrigo Lopez (974)
Sean Bergman (972)
Art Ditmar (970)
Ted Lilly (969)
Brett Tomko (968)
Chad Ogea (967)
Scott Sanders (967)
I don’t know what it means, but here it is.
through age 28 fyi
Here’s my prediction for what the bullpen will look like one year from now:
Closer–Lohse
RH Setup–Coffey
LH Setup–Bray
Situation LH–Cormier
Situation RH–Majic-man
Balfour
i’m really interested in the press conference. Everyone seems to be saying Lohse is going into the pen, but my money says he’s going to be a starter right away.
No way kriv would give up Ward for a reliever right? Besides, with belisle on the way back, how many relievers do we need? Are we going to go to tandem starters or something?
yea i agree with al….and pretty much sultan’s bullpen..except i dont think lohse will be closing..or in the bullpen at all..if he’s even with the reds by next year that is…u forgot belisle who i sure hope can get back coz i really like him..and i think bray might move into the closer spot of eddie’s gone
Maddux and Lugo to the Dodgers.
Lets hope Maddux doesn’t pitch the next 3 days. I’m not sure when he last started.
In words of Marty B, Joe Mays was not acquired to pitch at Louisville. He was sixth starter from day one, back up plan to Claussen, when BC went on DL, Mays was the replacement. (Turns out his performance reversed the original prediction, but that’s a different story.
Looks to me like Lohse is the sixth starter. If Claussen is bad in last rehab start (today?), who is going to go Saturday? Lohse. If Claussen pithches a couple times with bad results, who is the long reliever that will replace him in rotation? Lohse.
Lohse may be easier to fix than Mays, I gather Mays was a Don Gullett (as pitching coasch) special, a guy with a mechanical flaw we hope to fix. Didn’t work. Lohse seems to be a mental problem, at odds with organization, classic change of scenery guy, perhaps like Guardado. Judging from Al’s remarks, Lohse has the stuff, needs to get head atraight. Let’s hope he has a Brandon Phillips experience.
Today’s deals show how much Krivsky overpaid to Washington. Of course, we DID get the last two weeks of Majewk and Clayton’s excellence (and Bray), so there’s a premium for moving early.
He damn well should’ve gotten Kip Wells instead of his Twinkie binkie Kyle Lohse.
you’re kidding right?
Well, I didn’t look at Wells’ stats before posting that. I seem him as being essentially the same as Lohse, stat-wise. I’ve been impressed w/ Wells in the past, as you have with Lohse. I just don’t see any upside with Lohse.
kip wells?..i’ll pass
now david wells…there’s a target haha
alright, i’m stunned, but i have to change my position. apparently krivsky just said in the press conference that kyle lohse will indeed be a relief pitcher, and i can now officially say that it was a terrible move, and that krivsky is a lunatic.
Why can’t the reds ever have a reasonable GM!? You trade one of your top starting pitching prospects for your 58th relief pitcher!? what an idiot. what a freaking idiot.
guardado
lohse
coffey
bray
majewski
weathers
standridge
cormier
belisle
mercker
shackelford
that’s 11 by my count. shack is easy, then who? cut three more off of that list and tell me if the last guy you cut is just as good as someone else on the list. if so, then why did we give up a good prospect?!
please tell me it was just politicing. they can’t be serious, he has to start right?
My thoughts exactly. I think Mercker’s injury is serious, FWIW. That gets you down to 71.
I think having a full bullpen is a DISADVANTAGE going into the off-season and spring training. As I say every day, these guys are cheap and easy to develop/acquire. No need to stockpile them like they’re 95 mph-throwing kids. Those, you should stockpile (or trade for Kyle Lohse).
well u didnt really expect krivsky to come out and say he was gonna be the number 5 starter did you? claussen could have just thrown in the towel right then..i still believe he’ll start till claussen’s ready, then they’ll have to battle for the 5th spot hah..shack and standridge will get sent down…mercker is on the DL in case u dont remember and weather could possibly be gone
A couple of the more prolific posters on this site have convinced me of Krivsky’s incompetence. I totally agree that we should have kept Lopez, Kearns and the mid-tier/ low level “prospects” and continued to lose year in and year out. I wish we had Kearns in right, Lopez at short, O’Brien in the front office, and were comfortably out of it so I could focus on the Bengals now. This whole baseball still being fun in August thing is terrible.
I continue to be absolutely amazed at how badly so many Reds fans overrate Austin Kearns. He will get $5 million in arbitration. Come on… would you really be comfortable paying this guy that next year? Thats a lot of cheeseburgers and Alabama CD’s for what his production is.. including the mythical “upside”
But does that answer Al’s second question? Much much better is the bullpen today than it was yesterday? Whether they were real prospects, Germano and Ward were trading chips.
marty on the sports animal right now bitching… great stuff
Dan, your buddy is going to pay the same amount to Kyle Lohse. What’s the better deal?
Record against teams with winning records since the trade: 1-3.
Record against teams with winning records before the trade: 11-13 (10-8 against NL teams).
In other words, the quality of the opposition (or lack thereof) is the reaosn they’ve won more games since the break.
Probably.
One thing you cannot discount though, is that the Reds also saved money. That is cash to play around in the free agent market over the offseason. They have bettered their team for IMMEDIATE return and if they do make the postseason, as it is looking mome and more like they will, they ride that wave as far as they can, then reassemble with few arbitration pieces plus some work in the FA market. I foresee the saved trade $$ plus cash from freeing milton to allow for heavy play in the free agent market to replace some offense. Replace Milton with Bailey next year.
People in Cincinnati have a problem with making everyone on their team a fan favorite. As far as prospects, especially those deep in the system… they are replacable. Next year if they aren’t in contention that is what we will be picking up too.
Chris,
Lohse has two plus months to earn anything at all. If he doesn’t work out, he will be non-tendered. It is a gamble, sure, but a very low cost one. The only thing they are on the hook for is the remaining salary for this year. Do the math.. the Reds will be sitting on some serious “starting pitcher cash” this winter. And that is even with “Mr. 90’s” playing center-field. Should he amazingly decide that he wants to stay home with the kids next year, the amount of available cash is “Two Real Starters” caliber.
Krivsky has committed very little in the way of payroll for next year in any of his deals, while still keeping the team competitive. The front office wants to win now, but they have one eye firmly fixed on the free agency market this winter.
You have to swap players you no longer control (arbitration / FA eligible) for players that you do whenever you can when you are a LOSER. Krivsky took over a loser… he is doing exactly what needed to be done.
Im really sick of “planning for the future” The future and winning seasons were supposed to come on the eve of GABP. Change some stuff up to keep us winning and I’m not going to complain. And we didn’t lose guys like Bruce, Votto, Bailey… win/win from my perspective.
I will go out on a limb and say that acquiring Kyle Lohse will not be a “win.” I hope to be proven wrong.
Even Deadspin is getting their knocks in:
The Reds, who are still leading the wild-card, we might add, picked up Kyle Lohse from the Twins and Rheal Cormier from the Phillies. No, they did not trade Adam Dunn and Bronson Arroyo for them.
i really dont understand the dislike toward griffey, before the slump he’s been in that he’s gradually coming out of he was holding this offense together, he’s still a threat day in and day out in the lineup and he’ll still make some incredible catches, i dont see how anyone could want to see griffey go sooner than later, the man is still capable of big things
There was early talk of interest in Tejada. Baltimore insisted (supposedly) on Bailey being included in the deal. I am curious.. what would reaction to something like Bailey/Bruce/Freel for Tejada have been? (Should anyone care to comment on a non-event…which is sometimes more fun than the things that actually happen anyway)
griff isn’t going anywhere until he says he wants to retire and he will know when it is time to step down a la Cal Ripken Jr.
oh wow i woulda gone off
I just saw that the Padres traded Scott Linebrink to the Mets for Ollie Perez and a mediocre bullpen arm. THAT’s a guy the Reds should’ve gotten in on, especially if the price was so low.
i wouldnt do bailey by himself for tejada..if u throw in bruce and freel that qualifies for a shooting spree
call me crazy but i did expect them to come out and say we got this guy to start games.
he’s always had better second halves than first, so i expected them to say they got a starter for the stretch run and beyond.
between 2003-2005 lohse made 34 starts in august and september, going 203.1 innings with a 4.25 ERA. That’s an established late season track record, and if he can pitch to that he’s our 3rd best starter.
Ken Griffey, Jr is a first ballot HOFer…and with the recent steroids scandals, he should be the first ever unanimous selection. If the Reds had a $100 Million payroll and a DH spot in the lineup, he would be worth all of his $10-12 mill each year. But they have no such spot… and even next year are probably looking at a $73-$80 million payroll (those new TV revenues and the sale of the Nat’s will help a lot!).
Just go to Reds.com and look at Grif’s career stats.. focus on the past six year.. focus on the fact that he is in his 17th season.. is he really worth that big a chunk of your payroll? Think of what so many players like Grif did after 17 years in the Bigs.. if he was going on the market this year he would be $1.5 to $2.5 million TOPS.. agreed?
On the Tejada issue… you wouldn’t trade a AA pitcher, a Single A outfielder, and a utility man for Tejada? Yet, so many yell about getting Bill Bray for two middle of the road position players? Interesting.
I think the Linebrink think may be a rumor.
Yeah I agree with what you say about Griffey, but dumping him would be one of the biggest PR mistakes the Reds could make.
there’s a difference trading some double A pitcher and some A outfielder..they’re the jewels of the farm system…you don’t trade 2 of the top prospects from any team for one other player….huge difference in that and the bray deal
Bill Bray WAS Homer Bailey to the Nationals…thats my point. Only difference between them, Bray progressed much faster.
Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, Duane Walker, CJ Nitkowski, Bobby Basham, etc, etc, etc…. all of the “Reds Farm System Jewels”.. glad we stuck with them all and won all those pennants.
Bray wasn’t the same sort of prospect as Bailey. For one, he’s a reliever. Sickels had Bray as a B-, Bailey as a B+ before the season. Baseball America has Bailey as #1; Bray is #8. (Thompson, who we also got, was #10). The Reds’ equivalent of Bray would be Pelland or Rafael Gonzales. Bray’s better than those guys, but it’s not like the Nats parted with their crown jewel, once-in-a-generation pitching prospect.
Oh, yeah, let me add another one-time “highly regarded prospect” to the list.. some guy by the name of Dan Dumoulin
The point isn’t that you keep them all, Dan. The point is that when you trade prospects, you do it for something you don’t already have, hopefully of equal or better value.
Bailey has great stuff… and may never win a game in the majors. Tejada is a proven big league shortstop. And Bruce? Somewhere around 7% of all A League ballplayers ever make the majors.
In case anyone here doesn’t read JinAZ’s blog (you should), he has already put together an in-depth statistical analysis of the Reds’ trades today. Link. Interesting analysis – his conclusions were the opposite of my reactions to the moves.
Way back at #36, Chris posted Lohse’s PECOTA comps, and thought it didn’t look good. Actually, it makes me feel a lot better. No HOFers on that list, but a lot of good, serviceable pitchers with a few years to go. Stan Bahnsen won 21 games in his age 27 year. Paul Quantrill was a solid reliever for a long time. Jim Perry won 20 games twice in his 30s. And so on, and so on. Maybe this will work out.
well lets just hope that regardless of how everyone feels about any of Krivsky’s moves, that we all maintain abundant optimism going into the stretch here. It has been since 1995 people. Can you believe this?
Krivsky on 700 right now
Amusingly, Bahnsen’s 21-win season came with an ERA 0.47 above the league average.
JinzAz’s analysis is solid. Thanks for the tip.
From John Sickels’ Prospect Book, on Ward:
“…college performance was erratic. Dominant at times, he would also go through rough patches where his command failed him. At best, Ward has a low 90s fastball, an excellent curve, and an adequate changeup.” Grade of C+, pending Ward’s ability to prove himself as a pro (he didn’t play last year after being drafted), and resolve the control issues. [37 BB in 114 IP this year - roughly the same rate as Big Homer - I'd expect a higher grade next year]
When asked in a chat session about why the Cards traded the younger Luna for Ronnie Belliard, ESPN’s Gary Gillette answered with, “Because the Cardinals, esp. Mr. La Russa, grossly overvalue veteran experience/leadership. Belliard this year is no better than Luna, at the very best.” Glad to know that Jerry Narron isn’t the only one in the central.
A note on the Reds trade from another ESPN guy, John Manuel, “. . . anyway, I was surprised the Reds gave up Zach Ward, because he’s one of their better pitching prospects. I also wasn’t a fan of the Lopez & Kearns deal, though I didn’t pan it as much as most of the known world. The bottom line is, the Reds have mediocre starting pitching and are hoping to capitalize on their offense and depth of position players to improve that pitching just enough to get into the playoffs. I think it’s worth it for them to go for it as long as they aren’t giving up their truly elite prospects, which are Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Travis Wood and Jay Bruce (in order, more like Bailey, Bruce, Wood and Votto). That’s a nice quartet, and if the Reds improve their big league club without touching those four, then Wayne Krivsky has done his job.”
He has a point, at least they’ve only given up B & C prospects to make the first legitimate playoff run since I was 18.
I hate to keep throwing cold water on everything, but we’ve let 7 years of misery lower our standards. This team is 5 games over .500, on pace to an 85-77 season. The Reds have actually been outscored on the season, by 13 runs.
This league is so bad that we’ve fallen into contention from three nice surprises (Ross, Phillips and Arroyo) and a remarkably injury-free year. All that, our Pythagorean record is a losing one. I figured this for a 77-82 win team, and that’s where they’re scoring right now.
I’ll enjoy the pennant race, and who knows what could happen in October, but I’m not ready to annoint Krivsky as baseball genius, or pretend that he’s solely responsible for the “success” just yet.
Let me start out by saying that I HATE Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA, and the like. Sense my emphasis. They are run by a bunch of stat driven, “fantasy baseball twits” (to steal a phrase).
Ok. Had to get that off my chest. I didn’t like the Lohse deal, but that wasn’t because we gave up Ward. I thought Ward could have potential. I didn’t like the deal because there were other vets out there such as Mark Redman, who got lit last night for 6 ERs, but has been solid since June 1st.
However, don’t think that the deal bankrupted our future either. Keith Law – whom I can’t stand – said this about Ward: “Zach Ward, the Reds’ third-round pick from 2005, has a very good arm, with a sinking fastball up to 94 mph, a solid-average slider, and a funky delivery that creates good deception but that he finds hard to repeat, leading to command problems. He’s pitched well, but not extremely so, for low-A Dayton this year. As a college product he should probably be challenged with high-A competition immediately.” Chances are good that Ward was three years from coming anywhere close to the majors, if that. Why not deal him for an experienced guy who can play multiple roles in the staff be it spot starts or relief.
Then you have the Cromier deal which I absolutely love. Many have focused on his age but forget that he has been lights out against righties. Granted he doesn’t play in many key situtations, at least he didn’t in Philly, but he is a huge upgrade over Weathers and Merker.
I have never been impressed with Germano. To me he looks like a poor man’s Greg Maddux. The Greg Maddux LA just got. He is all small stuff with no out pitch. I truly love the deal because it brings in a guy who the Reds can use for the next two years – option third – for a guy who wasn’t going to see his way into the rotation for anything more than a DL call up.
Krivisky has done well. He has hit, he has missed, but no one has been more active. The fact of the matter is the Reds had few prospects at the beginning of the year. Our pitching was awful. The team was on a course to nowhere – the same course it was on for years. Finally, a shake up and a playoff run to boot. Think of it this way… The Reds were the only team in the division who set out to improve one area of their team, and did so effectively.
Starting at the end and working my way backward, I came upon your post first, David. Thanks for the good thoughts. You’re the first I’ve read who offers insight into the reasoning behind these trades. I have fatih in Krivsky, and hope we are a better team today than yesterday.
Both Buster Olney and Peter Pasquerelli called the REds the Biggest Winners over the last month picking up five arms. They both have the Reds making the playoffs. With the Mets losing Sanchez for the year and Pujols going in for an MRI again today the Reds can make the World Series this year. I agree 100% with Al that Lohse COULD be a huge surprise. HE has nasty stuff. Mercker must be done so the Cormier deal was a must. Germano had average stuff at best. Who knows what WArd would have ever done. I am sick and tired of waiting until next year and I don’t understand all the Krivsky bashing. WE finally have a GM that will do something and all anyone can talk about is how it’s hurting our 2012 lineup.
I love that you’re now quoting media kudos for Krivsky. Fair enough (though I don’t know who Peter Pasquerelli is).
Guess that means you’ll also agree with the 98% of the analysts who bashed the Majewski trade?
Let me start out by saying that I HATE Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA, and the like. Sense my emphasis. They are run by a bunch of stat driven, “fantasy baseball twits” (to steal a phrase).
I guess you know those guys pretty well to hate them so much?
Hell, I’m really concerned about 2013!
We’ve now got a surplus of bullpen arms, and I have no idea what we’re going to do with them.
Also, for now, we have a glaring hole at SS, though I think it will soon be resolved the same way Womack at 2B was solved.
It was Buster Olney and Steve Phillips not Phillips and Peter Pasquerelli (Did he mean Len Pasquarelli?). Anyways they graded the Reds as having the top imrpovement thru the deadline. It’s hard not to having completely retooled their one true weakness.
I actually liked the Bray/Majewski trade. I’ll leave it at that.
Chris… Don’t be a tool. I was simply voicing concern over the way many baseball fans follow PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus as if they were the 10 Commandments. I follow baseball for the stuff in between. Call that a flaw if you want, but give me Ryan Freel over Austin Kearns any day. At least Freel busts his butt every second of every game. Anways, way to make a big deal about that one phrase. Thread parasites like you I always like. No hard feelings.
I wasn’t being a smartass. And have no clue what a “thread parasite” is. I do know several of those guys, and have worked with them in various contexts. While many (not all) have a statistical bent, few play roto (though a few more now play in those “celebrity” leagues. I thought maybe you’d had some negative personal interaction, since your comments (“Sense my emphasis”) were so personal.
I saw thread parasites and I was hoping for Michael or Bill Hansing, but I was denied.
Blanket statements are always fun, especially when you insult one of the prime contributors of the site.
Finally, my team of Austin Kearns will beat your team of Ryan Freels any day of the week. My team of Adam Dunns would beat your team of Ryan Freels and my team of Edwin Encarnacions, errors notwithstadning, would beat your team of Ryan Freels.
[...] Given the state of confusion/disappointment/anger among the Cardinal faithful, I figured I’d check out the rest of the division to see how their fans were reacting to deadline day. Turns out, it doesn’t seem like anybody is happy with the moves their team made, so that makes me feel a little bit better about the “improvements” Jocketty made. The Pirates were by far the most actively trading team in the division, and thanks to Bucs Dugout, they also had the most entertaining criticism of those moves. The Reds continued to horde mid-to-lower tier pitchers and gave up some relatively decent prospects to do it, which left Reds fans almost as confused as us Cardinal fans. Houston was quiet all day, although they did manage to tick off their best pitcher, which I’m sure is gonna help the clubhouse chemistry. It seems to be a little bit of a mixed bag for Chicago; the Maddux deal isn’t going over well, but dealing Todd Walker has at least met with mild approval. Finally, Milwaukee stayed quiet today, but of course their fans had an earlier chance to hate their team’s moves. [...]
Can you guys remember a time when we had a chance to sit on the edge of our seat during a Reds game? When we got to watch the standings after May 15th? When we had hopes of the playoffs?
Put everything aside, we gotta chance!!!
And as much as some of you hate the trade and don’t really like Krivsky, our biggest problem is Jerry Narron and his moronic changing of the lineups, his apparent distaste for EE, and his overall inability to manage a game.
Lets forget everything that stands between us, and root for two things;
the Reds in the playoffs, and the Reds without Narron trying sink the ship!!!
Few typos there, but you get the point…
trades good…
free edwin…
Narron sucks!
Chris, stop taking everything so f*cking personally. This is the 2nd time that I have had to comment just because I think it is sad that every time someone posts an opinion that does not parallel yours you make it a hate crime/personal attack/social endictment/ whatever you want to call it. Point is this is the 2nd night in a row that I’ve had to just be honest and say that you are being a bit too defensive and thin-skinned. Chill out man, we all love ya.
oh, and Pinski….. Freel is under-rated. That guy is the most useful tool on the roster. Not that he excels in any one area or that he is the best player on the team but thats the point, he can do everything (but pitch). He can play anywhere… infield or outfield. He can hit for good average, is great off the bench, will hit a few HRs and can steal a base for you. He has been picked off a few times of late which is inexcusable but irregardless… the guy is a great asset, simply for his versatility.
Look at what I wrote, Justin. Did I call anyone a tool, a nitwit, or a parasite? Did I call anyone out? No, some guys said he “HATED” some other guys, about six different ways, and I asked why. But thanks for the advice.
Calling the trade with Washington the “Majewski Trade” is like calling the famous trade with Houston prior to the run through the mid-70’s the “Billingham Trade”… The key was, is and will always be Bill Bray.
I did mean Len Pasquerelli and he was on ESPN Radio with Buster Olney (Steve Phillips was on TV with Buster).
Chris-Sorry that you don’t like me quoting what the media guys are saying. I’m guessing that Buster Olney doesn’t have near the grasp of the baseball scene compared to you.
Chris – I didn’t mean to get personal. Sorry if it offended you. I called you a thread parasite because you latched on to one piece of the picture without regard to the context in which it was placed – never heard that – interesting. Sorry if you took that to heart.
Look at what I wrote. I said that I hated PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus, the organizations not the fine men and women who work for them. I think that stat junkies tend to spend much more time ripping deals than the run of the mill baseball fan because they can’t see the value in trading an everyday position player for a reliever. Why give up fantasy stats for a guy who won’t get any saves? And “Fantasy baseball twits” was a line used by sports writer Paul Daugherty in an article shortly following “the trade,” hence, to “borrow a phrase.” Hope that clears that up.
Pinski – I didn’t know that stating an opinion, or at worst “insulting” a prime contributor was against the rules. Why is it that I should have to agree with everything said by someone simply because he/she posts often? If I post more often does that mean I can say more? Anyway, I know that you would rather have Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. I like Adam Dunn. I like Austin Kearns – think he is terribly overrated by some fans, but I appreciate his ability. In fact, I was talking about Lopez’s attitude which the Reds brass are rumored to dislike because he wasn’t trying to improve his defensive game. I would rather have Freel or any guy who busts his butt as opposed to someone who has a sense of entitlement. I would imagine I’m not alone in that. So while your team may win every game, my team will fight you to the death which is what sports is supposed to be about.
David, where did you get the information that Lopez “wasn’t trying to improve his defensive game”?
In part III of our interview with Chris Welsh, he mentions Lopez’s name when talking about working on defense, the same as he mentions Hatteburg, EE, and Olmedo. Sounded like Lopez was working as hard as anyone else on their defense.
Just thought it was funny that you called Chris of all people a thread parasite.
I don’t care about saves. I want a guy who is good. I wouldn’t mind trading Kearns and Felipe for Scott Shields or someone GOOD. Heck I probably wouldn’t have minded the trade if it was one of the two for two average relievers.
What value am I missing in two relievers who may save the team 20 runs over the season versus a decrease in offense production.
PROFESSIONAL Sports are about two things, entertainment and winning. AMATEUR Sports are about trying your hardest and fighting to the death. I want my professional sports teams to win, though they can do it by fighting to the death, I really take the Machiavellian view of win and win at all costs.
Lopez defense=Latest issue of SI.