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Jay Bruce had two hits Sunday, and ordinarily that would be a good thing for the Class A Midwest League Dayton Dragons.
The problem is, in June, Bruce hit .389 with 18 RBIs. In the first two days of July, he was 3-of-7 (.429). How long do you think the parent Reds are going to keep their No. 1 position player prospect in “low” Class A when he puts up numbers like those?
Dragons manager Billy Gardner Jr. still thinks he’s going to keep the 19-year-old outfielder for the remainder of the season.
“There’s no reason to rush him,” Gardner said. “Jay’s still only 19. And if we’re in the hunt (for a playoff spot) in the second half, he’ll be in a lot of games that matter. There also comes a point where you have to challenge a player.”
I’ve said it before, I don’t see what more Bruce has to prove at this level. As a partial season ticket holder for the Dragons, I hate saying that, but as a Reds fan, I say, “Get him to Sarasota and see what he can do there.”
In a previous Reds administration, and when the organization was trying to establish a team in Dayton, Austin Kearns stayed with the Dragons all of 2000, hitting .306 with 27 homers and 104 RBIs. That was Kearns’ second straight full season at Class A.
The year before, Kearns hit .258 at Rockford, Ill., (the team that moved to Dayton) with 13 homers and 48 RBIs. Bruce already has 11 homers and 55 RBIs and was hitting .313 entering Monday night’s game at Kane County.
In other words, he’s well ahead of Kearns at the same time in their careers, and now Kearns is the regular right fielder for the Reds.
At age 19, Kearns was at the same level. His numbers (in addition to what’s above) were .258/.340/.458 in 124 games. In 80 games, Bruce has 12 homers and 57 RBIs, while posting .317/.374/.573 numbers.
I don’t feel he has anything left to prove at this level, but Bob Castillini did say he wanted a winner in Dayton and they are competing for a 2nd half playoff spot, so that might be what would keep him in Dayton.
But should it?
I do wonder if the Reds front office is waiting to see if they can have a “name” to replace him with in Dayton before promoting him. Bob Castillini did say that he wanted a winning team at Dayton and as Gardner says, they are in t
I think the manager has a point. If Dayton is in a playoff hunt and Sarasota is out of it, the level of intensity in the games in Dayton will be far greater. I think that would be good for Bruce.
If Dayton falls out of it, though, he should be promoted immediately.
They mention the Kearns situation, and how he spent 2 full years in the MWL. But was it the same? Did the Reds really have a “high A” team at the time? I think they were either in the Cal League (Stockton) or Carolina League (Potomac) – not sure how either was classed then.
Chris, I don’t believe they did. I think it was before they bought the Stockton high A team… to me the comparison is the level and players age. Both were 19 playing their first year of low A ball.
Another question: How long is Chris Denorfia goiing to stay at Louisville? Something has to happen so he can get a well-deserved call-up.
The “level of intensity” may be greater, but the level of competition won’t be.
I don’t know that the level of intensity has much to do with a player’s growth?
Jim, it sure seems like they’re happy with him at Louisville. They obviously don’t want to see him up here only getting a few ABs a week, so baring a trade of a regular outfielder, I don’t see him factoring in this year.
Same thing with Olemdo. They’d rather have Castro here for $1M, than Olmedo for ML minimum. Why? Guess they want a vet on the bench more than a young guy?
It is a complete injustice to Denorfia to sit at a level of ball that he has mastered. If Dunn is not a 1B next year someone better have some answers.
Kearns played his first season at Rockford with Dunn, Corky Miller, DeWayne Wise, and Gookie Dawkins. The next stop was Stockton, which barely drew 500 a game, kinda like Rockford, near my town. The MWL was a better fit. From Kearns first year to second year at Dayton, he looked like he gained about 40 pounds of muscle (juice??). Jay Bruce is a better looking player than Kearns at the same age—more mature physically. To me, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is Griffey, or even Dunn. As great as they are, will trading one or both yield the prospects that will make this team a LEGIT playoff team year after year? To me, the worst thing you can do is muddle along (like the Cubs) and plug holes each year without a comprehensive plan to compete playing a definitive brand of baseball. As much as I like Dunn personally, he doesn’t fit that mold, and Griffey won’t be a viable player in two years when this group reaches their prime. Does anyone else feel this way, or do most feel this team can do some damage in the playoffs by picking up some players at the trade deadline?
I disagree with you. I think Bruce is a nice player, as is Bailey. But there’s no reason to plan around 2008. This team already has a great young core (Dunn, Kearns, Encar, Lopez, Phillips, Harang, Arroyo, and Ramirez), all under reasonable contracts, plus Griffey. They should try to win in 2007, not dump Dunn and put that back a couple years. I don’t really understand your point about “a definitive brand of baseball,” or why Dunn “doesn’t fit that mold.” The guy is one of the best hitters in the league – winning teams can use guys like that.
If the starting pitching continues to do what it has done, I like the Reds chances in the 2nd half and into the bullpen with an above average bullpen.
If the Reds are sticking with Dunn/Griff/Kearns in the OF next year, then they need to see what pitching help Denorfia can yield. Or perhaps moving one of those guys to first and playing Denorfia in the OF…does that make Votto expendable?
Realistically, if you want to compete at the major league level the next couple of years while the A-ball guys are advancing up the levels, you’ll need to trade the upper minor league guys you have now (if they have any value) and spend more money than you want to on the major league roster in the offseason.
I hope they leave him down there for another week, I’m hoping to see him play when the Dragons are in South Bend next week to play the Silverhawks (I live 45 minutes from SB).
It’s good to hear you say that. You’re right, they do have a good nucleus of players who will be competitive for the next few years. But they’re clearly not close yet, which means we gotta talk about players who can return maximum value. About Dunn, I know his OPS doesn’t lie. It just seems he doesn’t make productive outs and drive in enough runs because he walks and strikes out so damn much. Maybe I’m trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. He might just be a different breed altogether. Unlike Griff, though, my impression is that he doesn’t give quality at bats against top notch pitchers. Are there any stats to verify this? I’ve been on board with this guy since Rockford, but……
“They’re clearly not close yet.”
Dude, they’re in the wild card spot, and have the third-best record in the league. They’re close.
And I think you’re talking yourself into things with Dunn. I’ve even felt myself doing the same thing – you listen to so much bashing, it starts to make sense.
How about this? Dunn’s made 229 outs in 363 PAs this year. Aurilia’s a guy who gets praise (and inexplicable playing time) for doing the little things. He’s made 155 outs in 225 PAs. Given Dunn’s playing time, Aurilia would’ve made 250 outs – 21 more than Dunn (seven full innings of shutout ball). How productive would those outs (and the other 155) have to be to make up the difference, not to mention the difference in SLG?
I don’t know of any place that breaks down a hitter’s numbers vs. “good” pitchers. I think you’d have to go through his “vs.” numbers against every guy he’s faced this year, and make your own judgments on quality.
Prospectus does give us the collective pitching line of everyone a batter has faced this year. As you might expect, this doesn’t differ greatly among teammates.
Of 13 position-playing Reds with > 50 PAs, Dunn is one of 8 with an opponent’s BA between .253-.255. Valentin and Junior have faced marginally tougher pitching (.247, .248).
About Dunn, I know his OPS doesn’t lie. It just seems he doesn’t make productive outs and drive in enough runs because he walks and strikes out so damn much. Maybe I’m trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. He might just be a different breed altogether.
I think you hit the nail on the head, he is just a whole new breed altogether. Most baseball fans can just not wrap their mind around the fact that a hitter can be offensively productive while carrying a .245 BA and striking out so often. But Dunn is so extreme with his BBs and HRs, he still manages to knock in 100+, score 100+, and finish near the top of the league in OPS. Just remember that when he is making an unproductive out, he is already making less outs than most everyone else on the team because he maintains such a high OBP. Every time he doesn’t make an out, he increases the Red’s chances of scoring.
I do believe the Reds are going to have to make a decision this winter though. They are either going to have to decide if they can live with Dunn’s defense in LF, convert him to a full time 1B, or deal him for a monster package.
Later,
Tom
Good stuff guys, thanks for the numbers. That’s whats so great about baseball–you have a stat to confirm or deny anything, most of all the perceptions.