Loading ...We recently discussed Homer Bailey’s recent promotion to AA Chattanooga, where he had a great first start. His promotion has raised some concerns over whether the 20 year old prospect is being rushed down his path to the major leagues. Jerry Narron, although it appears half jokingly, has indicated he’d like to see him in Cincinnati now. Who could blame him after hearing that Bailey’s final, and 96th, pitch in his AA debut was clocked at 98 MPH. It is also encouraging to note the great progress Bailey has made with his command this season. The following numbers bear out his improved ability to throw strikes this season at A+ Sarasota, over what he did last season in A Dayton.
Year Age Lvl W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2005 19 A 8 4 4.43 28 21 103.2 89 64 51 5 62 125 7.73 5.38 10.85 1.46 2006 20 A+ 3 5 3.31 13 13 70.2 49 35 26 6 22 79 6.24 2.80 10.06 1.00
It’s a great sign that he is giving up less hits, nearly halved his BB/9, and is still striking out over ten batters per nine innings. He’s already made a big stride this season with his command. His next big hurdle is being consistant from outing to outing.
So given his hot start in AA, when can we expect to see Homer Bailey in a Reds uniform? I would have to venture that he will recieve a cup of coffee promotion this September. But there should be no way that he opens the season with the Reds next season. I believe the earliest he could be with the Reds for good would be about this time next year. That would only happen if continues to pitch very well at AA for the remainder of this season, and can continue his success for the first half of next season at AAA. This of course is the ideal situation, and assumes he doesn’t hit any roadblocks. A conservative estimate would be for him to open up the 2008 season with the Reds. Based on his performance this season, I look for the Reds to continue to challenge the young prospect and for him to become a big leaguer next season.
Later,
Tom
some think that success in AA means more than success in AAA, as AA is where most organization’s top prospects reside, and the guys that reside in AAA are the Dane Sardinhas of the world that teams don’t know what to do with…
Homer Bailey is a stud. I love this kid. His control this year really isn’t a surprise, BA said his control was fine last year, it was a matter of him being forced to throw his secondary pitches constantly to help develop them. Not so much lack of control.
I agree with Tom, assuming all goes well in AA, he post an ERA around 3 + or – a little, he’ll get a cup of coffee in Sept in the pen. Start the year in AAA next year and he’ll determine how fast he arrives in Cincy from there.
This doesn’t merit its own thread, and probably seems to fit best here:
The Padres are using the tandem pitching rotation at their low-A and Rookie levels. Each team of two pitchers goes every fourth day.
“This is unique, and any time you do something unique in the game of baseball, you’ve got a lot of naysayers,” [Farm Director Grady] Fuson said. “This gets more guys on the mound and more often, and it’s more protective of their arms at the younger levels.”
How it works: The game’s first starter is limited to about 60-65 pitches. The second starter begins an inning and is limited to 40-45 pitches. Relievers fill where needed. Four games later, the tandem starters’ roles are reversed.
Fuson embraced the plan while working for the Athletics (he learned it from Bob Cluck, who has followed Fuson to the Padres as a minor league pitching consultant). In each of his four seasons with the Rangers, Fuson oversaw a similar program. He said it reduced injuries and got vital extra innings for fringe prospects such as Kameron Loe, who went on to help Texas.
“It gets eight guys involved instead of five, and it gets them on the mound more often,” Fuson said. “To me, that’s what separates the development of pitchers and hitters. Pitchers can’t practice their craft as much as the hitters can.”
Another benefit: “It preaches efficiency. If you’ve got a 65-pitch start and you want to get that W next to your name, you’ve got to attack the strike zone,” Fuson said.
One drawback is that starting pitchers don’t learn how to pitch through fatigue comparable to what they might encounter in the majors, but Fuson rates that a minor concern for an entry-level pitcher. “The biggest thing is keeping them healthy,” he said.
Fuson said managers can switch to a conventional rotation if the situation merits it.
If Bailey gets a taste in September does he do it in the bullpen?
i think that homer will probably see a few innings out of the pen, alla jon papelbon last year with the red sox. both because we hopefully won’t need a starter, and to save his arm since he’ll probably set a new high for IP this year in the minors.
Not to diversify the thread too much, but what about the chance we’ll see phil dumatrait this year? i participated in the mob.com chat with dunn during ST when i asked him who the best looking young pitcher was he said phil, and i’ve been excited about him ever since.