Loading ...Stubbs started the year as the consensus top college hitter. He dropped. His defense is unquestioned, and is supposedly big league ready right now. He’s a fast, “5-tool guy,” with questions about his hitting. Strikeout prone.
2006 line: .342 .439 .580 Good, but not dominant.
Kevin Goldstein of Prospectus had this to say a few weeks ago:
“a dynamic athlete and a fantastic outfielder, but he’s yet to convince some evaluators that he can make consistent contact at the major league level, as he’s recorded 167 whiffs in 629 college at-bats. However, with plus or better tools across the board, he may have a ceiling higher than any player in the draft.”
Goldstein quoted one scout as saying Stubbs is “one of the best 10 center fielders in baseball right now, at any level.”
Another scout reportedly told Baseball America, “Stubbs can’t hit. He never could hit, and he never will hit.”
i would have prefered a one tool player, if they could have gotten someone with the pitching tool.
Tim Lincecum went 10th, i would have been happier with him.
Yeah, this one concerns me. Lincecum is the guy I wanted. They say he throws high-90s.
Just watched some video of the guy over at MLB.com. He’s certainly athletic. Consider my fingers crossed.
I would say from his numbers that Scout they quoted is a moron.
I heard a lot of bad things about Lincecum. One guy on the radio today said he would be a reliever at the major league level, and I’m against using a #8 pick for that. He also threw 146 pitches earlier this year – not meaningful as a single instance, but evidence that he might not have been well cared for.
College player…assuming he’s signed, he might be Dayton bound…I might be seeing him play soon.
Marc Lancaster makes me concerned…
Oh God, another “tools guy” in the organization. I thought the exterminator just got rid of the last of them.
WTF, are all these doofus’ talking about. Not a “pure” powerhitter. Why cause isn’t fat? The dude led his team two years in a row in HR. He has HIT over .300 all three years at Texas. He walks.
Oh wait. He strikes out. Don’t listen to the scouts or especially Lance.
BTW, “make contact” is a Scouts buzzword for he doesn’t ground out enough.
Well, a .580 SLG isn’t ungodly power, with an aluminum bat. The NCAA leaders list only goes down to #35, but that guy Slugged .674. The leader was at .943.
Matt, I think what you’re saying is correct at the major league level — strikeouts aren’t any worse than other outs. But when evaluating amateur players, and even minor league prospects, strikeouts are important. They show you if a guy can control the strike zone, and if he gets overmatched at the plate. At the college level, a dominant hitter looks more like Barry Bonds than Adam Dunn.
True, but he obviously knows the strikezone…he walked nearly 20% of his PAs. I am not sure I buy your argument, but I can live with this guy.
The next two picks were horrid though
I would rather compare him to his teammates than someone who slugged .943 for Douche Bag State.
Or atleast to the other guys in his conference.
Well, I agree with that point for sure. I did see a guy from UK in the top 15 in SLG, so it’s not all Pigsknuckle State. I’ll see if I can find some park factors for UT.
These guys like him, mostly:
http://baseballanalysts.com/
UT plays as a slight pitcher’s park.
With College stats you also have to take into account who they are playing. UT probably plays a little better competition than say Pigknuckle State.
Actually, after looking at his stats and considering his competition, I’m starting to like this pick. At least it’s defensible…and not for the reasons that the scouts say.
I look at it this way. If he strikes out a lot but shows capable power and speed with a fantastic glove, there are worse things than to draft a more well-rounded Mike Cameron to be the heir-apparent in centerfield for a decade.
Yeah. While his numbers aren’t overwhelming, they are very, very good. He also earned a starting spot on a national championship-caliber team as a freshman, then led the team to that title, etc. etc.
There’s been a lot of bitching on various Reds blogs, to the tune of “why take another OF?” My thought was: “That’s the one thing we can develop – why not play to our strength?”
Then I read a piece on the Padres’ drafts today, where Kevin Towers said essentially the same thing:
“In the last 10 years, we did a far better job of developing pitching,” said Towers, a former Triple-A pitcher. “We know that pitching at least would create some value. Do something you’re good at. We had struggled with developing hitters and power hitters. So it didn’t make sense to go out and draft a lot of hitters when we weren’t really developing them.
“In the perfect world, we’d like to be able to do both.”
Kevin Goldstein (as Mel Kiper) says:
As the draft saying goes, it only takes one, and that one was Cincinnati, who were looking at some college arms, but went with Stubbs when the pitchers they liked were all gone. In Stubbs’ defense, he’s not the best position player right now, but he has the highest ceiling.
Enquirer says that if he signs, he’ll start the year at Billings.
Anyone else find that surprising? I figured Dayton. Matt thought (in a b/c conversation) maybe even Sarasota.
Yeah, it’s surprising, considering he just finished a major college, 4-year career in the Big 12. Don’t know why he wouldn’t be in A ball to start out.
Perhaps they want him in rookie ball to get used to the wooden bat before moving him up in competition.
I think he was at the end of his junior year, wasn’t he? That would be 3 years of major college ball.