Loading ...John Fay has this interesting piece in this morning’s Enquirer, entitled, “The Team Believes; Should We?”
Sure, they can.
There’s no reason to think otherwise.
That’s my short answer to the rhetorical question we’re trying to answer today, which is: “Can the Reds stay in the race for the playoffs for the long haul, or will they be looking up from fifth place by the Fourth of July?”
My short answer, again, is yeah, sure. Why not?
But that is not to say they definitely will. In 2004, the Reds went into June 21/2 games in front in the National League Central at 32-21. They ended up 76-86.
To avoid a similar collapse, things must continue to line up as they have so far. The Reds have to avoid further injuries. They have to continue to get the quality pitching they’ve been getting.
The fast start has done a lot of good things. Chief among them is the change of attitude in the clubhouse after five years of steady losing.
“I really like the team chemistry,” Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said.
The Reds now believe they can win.
It’s a reasonable question, after what we’ve seen over the last five years. Can the Reds hang in the race? Should we believe?
What do you think?
I think it’s too early to even be talking about this.
The article says more to me about how the Enquirer is looking for something to write about.
I don’t even want to talk about this for another month, then if the Reds still appear competitive, it’s worthy of discussion…but even then, I don’t seriously believe you’re going to know anything until after the All Star break.
If we’re talking the present team without any attempted trades for key components then the answer is no. But if Krivsky and Castellini are determined to look for missing parts the yes it can conintue to compete.
Food for thought – How do the Reds address the problem of offensive nonproduction such as the last few nights?
I believe because of Wayne Krivsky and Bob Castellini. I still think they have some ideas to improve this club yet this year — and are willing to put some things in motion.
The toughest issue is to fix the defense within the context of where the defensive problems are coming from — LF, 3B and inconsistency at SS — all players who are part of the “core” moving forward.
Junior is no longer the CFer you want to be building around for the long-term either. Several have made the observation that Freel, Denorfia and QM have all gotten to balls that Junior wouldn’t get to in CF — and that is a real problem when Dunn is also in LF.
I read over at REDZONE where someone suggested that EE move to 1B — which avoids the insane number of throwing errors, move Lopez to 3b, play Phillips at SS and let Freel and even Olmedo try 2B.
I see the logic behind it — but as I commented over there as well, I don’t see it happening.
EE has 9 errors at 3B so far, but I think the plan is to live with that and pray that he improves. Lopez drives Narron crazy with his inconsistency at SS, but I think he is planning on going with that as well.
Anyway, all those moves still doesn’t address a very poor LF – CF combo with Junior back.
Krivsky and Narron would love to stick Denorfia in CF for an extended period and Junior’s agreement to play 1B would help that.
Interesting roster moves to come — I suspect.
Why Griffey at First? Why not Dunn at First and Griffey in Left. Griffey still has some value in the OF, he takes better routes to the ball than anyone else, he’s just not as fast as he once was, BUT I bet he could still beat ole Dunners in a foot race. How many times have we seen Dunn, Freel and Pena (back in days of yore) run in when they should have run out, run out when they should have run it. I have yet to see Denorfia play the OF, so I can’t tell you he would be any better than Freel CF.
For all the errors EdE does have, lets look at who else has been as bad. Morgan Ensberg has 7, Miguel Cabrera has 8, David Wright has 6. That looks like good company, especially considering how much the media talks up David Wright’s defense.
Also if making a bad play on a flyball was an error, how many would Dunn have?
If you really wanted to play with the infield the best bet would be to move Edwin to 2nd, and Phillips to short (and that’s only based on minor league reputation), and Felipe to 3rd (but notice this wouldn’t necessarily fix the defense at 3rd because his 8 errors lead all SS).
I’m OK with Dunn moving and Junior in LF — something’s got to0 give. They tried Dunn at 1B in ST and changed their minds for some reason that has never been fully explained anywhere.
Only two reasons were given for not following through with switching Dunn to 1b. After the Pena trade, it was stated that Dunn was never comfortable at first and now with Pena gone it freed up an outfield spot. Someone should have taken a hard line approach with Dunn (as they will have to with Griffey) and simply say, “Too bad if you’re uncomfortable; it’s better for the team.”
i think people are blowing the bad infield D way out of proportion. Not when noticing how it is affecting the team, obviously it’s killing us right now. But in calling for all these position changes, like young players don’t usually make errors.
for comparison, brooks robinson made 21 errors in his first full season, in 140 games, a pace that would have had him at 24 over 160. barry larkin made 48 errors in his first 2 full seasons, which was only 267 games, so a pace for 58 over 324.
lopez and EdE are young, and they work hard. If Ede finishes the year with 30 errors so be it, he’s 23 and that’s what is to be expected. That doesn’t mean he can’t play 3rd, ditto lopez at short.
as for griffey, i’m wondering if he’ll be back at all this year. I’m half expecting the announcemnt of another major surgery any minute now. and if he can’t understand that he shouldn’t be in center anymore, and is allowed to stay, then the inmates are officially running the assylum.
it reminds me of the 2003 ALCS when grady little asked pedro if he could pitch the 8th. Pedro says yes, yanks win the series, and grady little is fired, not pedro. At some point it is management’s reponsibility to take control and say “i don’t care if you think you can do it, i’m telling you that you won’t be.”
I think there’s still an outlying question of whether Dunn hurts the team worse defensively at 1st or in LF. He had a .985 FPct at 1st base last year. The worst FPct amongst regulars at the past two years was .989 and most regulars are .995 or better.
He had a .981 Fpct in LF. In 133 games in LF, Dunn had 257 chances. In 33 games at 1st base he had 259 chances. Do you want him touching the ball another 1200+ times in the infield? Is that better, worse or the same as 250+ touches in the outfield? I don’t think moving Dunn to LF is an automatic improvement to the team’s defense.
His ranking amongst LFers the past couple of years has improved. He’s been better than about 1/3rd of the OFers in both Fpct and Range (at least as much as can be calculated by numbers at ESPN’s website.)
I know he has a lot of errors early on this season, but I think a lot of that is due to very little practice in LF during ST. He hasn’t had an error rate this bad yet in his career.
If anyone moves to 1st base, I have suggested the past two years that it be Griffey. Now that Casey has been moved to Pittsburgh, the position is available.
Sure, I believe. I think chemistry blows the direction of the standings, but I’ll believe that they have beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat, and so far have hung with the teams that are above .500 teams. I think the beating of the bad teams is a good sign that we haven’t seen in recent years. We’ve seen recent teams actually hold their own against pitchers like Prior and Clemens then turn around and get swept by a last place team pitching 3 no-name starters. As long as the team continues to drub the Pirates, Nationals, etc, then that by itself puts them in a position to do something positive come June/July.
I agree with Al, and Greg too (I think). There’s no need to be re-jiggering the entire infield. These are young guys, who’ll be inconsistent. Lopez is never going to be Ozzie Smith, but he’s the best-hitting SS in the league, so I’d just leave him be. Same (more or less) with Encarnacion. We could roll out a bunch of Juan Castros and Pokey Reeses, but that’s a worse problem, IMO. As for position changes, I don’t know how anyone thinks that would be beneficial, at least in the short term. Encarnacion at 2b?!? Based on what? I’ve been pretty satisfied with the infield defense, especially with Phillips at 2b. There are definitely bad days, but overall, I’m okay with it.
I believe that Dave Williams needs an MRI on his shoulder. He’s just been way too hittable and his BB/K rate is atrocious. Usually, but not always, an early indicator of arm trouble. This is unfortunately something that Mr. Williams is very familiar with. I think his pitching line against St Louis, vs what was basically an entire lineup of backups and AAA players, was the final straw in my mind regarding his health. A healthy Dave Williams doesn’t get beat around like he has so far this year and doesn’t struggle that much against a weak, weak lineup. A trainer/coach needs to talk to him, ask him about his arm, and followup with a medical exam.
The Reds are my favorite team, but they are total idiots. They should have moved Griffey to 1st base 3 yrs. ago. You could have anyone else on the entire roster go diving around like a jackass in center and risking injury rather than continuously placing this guy on the DL over 1 funky out. I it’s a case where he’s not willing, I could understand, but this is silly. Let’s not forget this is the best, non-steroid using player the game has to offer. One bag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!