Loading ...The Reds are getting no love from Sports Illustrated in their preseason predictions. The Reds are predicted to finish dead last in the NL Central and are ranked 28th in Major League Baseball. The Reds rank ahead of only the Royals and Marlins.
It’s easy to see why their article assessment has us rated so low. Most of the article focuses on Ryan Freel and Eric Milton.
Freel, 30, emerged as one of the game’s better leadoff hitters in 2005, finishing with a .371 on-base percentage and 36 stolen bases from the one hole. He possesses all the attributes of a thinking leadoff man: He is willing to work the count, and he plays to his strength (speed) while minimizing his weakness (limited pop), hitting twice as many ground balls as fly balls. The 5′10″, 180-pound Freel has a prototypical small man’s game, regularly ripping his uniform on headfirst slides and sprawling catches. His aggressive style sent him to the disabled list twice last season.
But alas, we’ll see Tony Womack on Opening Day.
The Reds appear destined to play dozens of 10-9 games, and they won’t be competitive until they seriously upgrade their staff. Freel, who signed a two-year, $3 million extension in December, is a fine building block, a scrappy, multipurpose piece and a face for the franchise. But the talent gap between Cincinnati and the class of the NL Central is too great to bridge on hustle alone.
I agree about the pitching staff. I don’t think we’ve “seriously” upgraded our staff much from last year, but I feel we have made some improvements. I like Ryan Freel as much as anyone, but this article and assessment only mentions Dunn once, in one measly sentence (only stating that he’ll play LF now due to WMP’s departure), and never mentions Griffey, Kearns, nor Lopez. I think our offense is still a potential #1 in the NL. No wonder SI predicts the Reds so low. It’s as though Freel and Milton are it!
Of course it is still the preseason and I’m always optimistic at this time of year. Ask how I feel come July!
Publications like SI wouldn’t dare project anything different than how the divisions ended the previous season. Go out on a limb guys!
If the Reds cannot finish above the Nationals, Rockies, D-backs or Pirates, I will be depressed.
101 starts went to guys with ERAs in excess of 5.25 in 2005. I think the staff has improved this year just because I don’t expect that many bad starts this year. Milton has already dropped to the #4/5 slot. Hopefully he can rebound to his pre-2005 stats (around a mid-4 ERA). If he cannot, he hopefully will find his way to the mopup role in the bullpen.
Griffey is one of those guys that can carry a whole team all the way to October. To have one sentence about him gives the publication no credibility.
Wow. That is absolutely mindless. I hope they don’t pay that writer a whole lot.
I disagree with the statement that SI won’t go out on a limb. Actually, I think the opposite is true – major publications want to make news, and incite discussion. They can do that by making outrageous predictions. Remember 1987, when the Indians were on the cover?
No, I don’t remember the SI cover in 1987.
I agree with your philosophy when it comes to making news for themselves, but not for making division projections.
I guess I’ve got to go with SI here – ever since they called the Chicago/Houston world series last year, I’ve had great respect for them.
‘87 Indians … Mel Hall, Cory Snyder and Joe Carter.
SI Jinx Alive and Well!
SI’s projected division winners this year: Yankees, Sox, A’s, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers. Angels and Mets as the WC. They’re not dumb picks, but SI is definitely not going out on a limb.
I have to take issue with their analysis of Pittsburgh. The Reds finished six games ahead of them last year, but because the Bucs added crafty vets like Casey, Randa, and Burnitz, they’re suppossed to leapfrog a team with the NL’s best offense and a (moderately) improved pitching staff? I don’t buy it.
That, Ken, is half the reason GMs make silly moves like that. It’s a long off-season, and making moves (just for the sake of making them) draws attention and some respect. By July, that will all be forgotten, but from November through May, Dave Littlefield is seen as effective, at least by some people. There’s got to be value in that.
For Littlefield, I mean.
Who cares what SI and the New York media say? It’s the same old shtick. They’re so obsessed by the Yankees-Red Sox-Mets that they find it hard to admit the Reds exist. Lets get the season going; there could be some surprises.
But is this that outrageous a prediction?
The starting pitching SHOULD be better. I mean how could it be worse?
Claussen should improve. I hope that Harang will, but will be happy if he can pitch at the same level he did last year. Williams and Orroyo will be what they are, about league average. It’s hard to believe that Milton will be as bad as he was last year.
The bullpen is so old you don’t know if you’re going to get steady production or a drop off in performance due to age. One would hope by the midpoint of the season that Wagner, Coffey, and Belisle (if he makes the club) will be the mainstays of the bullpen. This would bode well for the Reds future success.
The offense will not be as good as last year. It’s apparent that Womack’s going to get the bulk of the PT at 2nd base, and at the top of the lineup. That hurts. Hatteburg isn’t as productive as Casey, and does anyone want to bet on Griffey and Kearns staying healthy? If they go down, there is no WMP to take that spot in the batting order. Anyone super confident of the Larue/Valentin combination repeating last year’s performance? What about Lopez? Career year or sign of things to come?
The addition of Encarnacion is great, but he’s young and is going to struggle at times. One hopes the Reds are patient enough to let him struggle in the lineup. But let’s remember that Randa had a very good first half last year, so Encarnacion probably won’t improve on the 3rd base numbers from last year very much.
The only player who I’m confident of repeating their ’05 success is Dunn. Otherwise, I’m hoping that the offense can compensate for what will be, at best, average overall pitching.
valentin probably won’t have as good of a year, but i think larue will probably continue to improve a little. EdE and randa is probably a wash, and i don’t think you can assume that people are going to get hurt, and griffey and kearns both look great so that’s probably an improvement since kearns struggled so badly early last year.
Even if womack starts at the beginning of the year, he probably can’t be as bad as jiminez was, so we haven’t lost anything there (if he stinks freel will start within a month).
hatteberg is probably a small step down from casey, so the offense may not be everything that it was, but Dunn also had a down year (for him) and could easily make up the difference.
the pen may be a little too old, but hammond certainly seems alright, and no one is going to be anywhere near as bad as graves or some of the other sucks they ran out there.
so the rotation is better, the pen is better, and the offense is maybe a little worse, but maybe not. I don’t think that the reds are a powerhouse yet, but i think they can be over .500, and that’s just about where i project most of the nl central, which i think is going to be a tight division.
the cardinals are better than the rest, and the pirates are worse than the rest, but i think the other 4 teams will all be right around each other.
That’s why these pre-season write ups or worthless. The Reds didn’t finish last, last year and I don’t see how anyone can honestly say that they haven’t improved the squad.
Pitching will still be a problem, but the team has made moves that should improve the staff. The lineup can produce runs. Thier power is second to none in the division. What’s up with That!
The problem is SI believes that Freel and Milton are the only two players for the Reds. And I’m sure if you are basing an evaluation of the team and those are the two guys you focus on, then the team will rank low!
I could make any team sound like a 28th ranked team if I focused a story on the team’s worst pitcher from last season and a guy whose role this year will be a bench player.
It’s hard to believe that Milton will be as bad as he was last year.
I agree. It’s also hard to believe that IF Milton is as bad as he was last year, he will be given another 34 starts.
Ken Rosenthal isn’t going out on a limb either:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5455724