Comments on: Wily Mo Pena to the Sox for Bronson Arroyo http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/ A Cincinnati Reds Blog | Dishing out hot, creamy bowls of bloggy goodness Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:41:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: GregD of Indy http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13098 GregD of Indy Tue, 21 Mar 2006 18:50:16 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13098 Brian B - of course future value means something. But just because WMP is big, strong and can crush the ball in batting practice, there is no guarantee that he will develop and put it all together in a game. If anyone knew for sure that Wily Mo would develop, then you could say that the Reds were robbed in this deal. The risk that he won't put it all together diminishes his current value. Arroyo has a longer track record, so his numbers are more easily projectable. There's always the unknown (ie injury risk) but barring injuries, Arroyo is comparable to Harang and he is signed for the next 3 seasons at around $3 million. Given what the offseason market was for pitchers, $3 million is a very good price. Brian B – of course future value means something. But just because WMP is big, strong and can crush the ball in batting practice, there is no guarantee that he will develop and put it all together in a game. If anyone knew for sure that Wily Mo would develop, then you could say that the Reds were robbed in this deal. The risk that he won’t put it all together diminishes his current value. Arroyo has a longer track record, so his numbers are more easily projectable. There’s always the unknown (ie injury risk) but barring injuries, Arroyo is comparable to Harang and he is signed for the next 3 seasons at around $3 million. Given what the offseason market was for pitchers, $3 million is a very good price.

]]> By: Chris http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13094 Chris Tue, 21 Mar 2006 18:04:34 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13094 I don't blame Jr for the Reds stinking. And the Reds' practice of slag-heap pitching was in effect long before 2000. Schourek started it off, but then there were Mike Morgan, Roger Salkeld, Pete Harnisch (twice), Steve Parris, Ron Villone, Steve Avery, Jason Bere. Osvaldo Fernandez and Elmer Dessens were two guys brought on board at the same time as Griffey. I don’t blame Jr for the Reds stinking. And the Reds’ practice of slag-heap pitching was in effect long before 2000. Schourek started it off, but then there were Mike Morgan, Roger Salkeld, Pete Harnisch (twice), Steve Parris, Ron Villone, Steve Avery, Jason Bere. Osvaldo Fernandez and Elmer Dessens were two guys brought on board at the same time as Griffey.

]]> By: Tom http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13092 Tom Tue, 21 Mar 2006 16:58:35 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13092 Since Junior came over in 2000, the Reds have been pitching poor with a lot of rehab arms for Gullett to work with until last year. WMP can hit, no doubt, but poor defensive skills will limit his starting as an outfielder. He'll fit better in the AL as a DH. This is a good trade for the Reds because it's the beginning of the two keys to winning - pitching and defense. Since Junior came over in 2000, the Reds have been pitching poor with a lot of rehab arms for Gullett to work with until last year. WMP can hit, no doubt, but poor defensive skills will limit his starting as an outfielder. He’ll fit better in the AL as a DH. This is a good trade for the Reds because it’s the beginning of the two keys to winning – pitching and defense.

]]> By: Brian B. http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13090 Brian B. Tue, 21 Mar 2006 16:39:43 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13090 I'm having a hard time understanding why so many people think that a player doesn't have value if he hasn't "proven" himself in the major leagues. Does potential future mean nothing to you at all? Should we just trade Jay Bruce for Julian Tavarez now because "it makes us a better team"? How is it possible that Arroyo will be more valuabe in two years - to the Reds on the field or in trade value - than Wily Mo Pena? I’m having a hard time understanding why so many people think that a player doesn’t have value if he hasn’t “proven” himself in the major leagues. Does potential future mean nothing to you at all? Should we just trade Jay Bruce for Julian Tavarez now because “it makes us a better team”? How is it possible that Arroyo will be more valuabe in two years – to the Reds on the field or in trade value – than Wily Mo Pena?

]]> By: mpt http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13089 mpt Tue, 21 Mar 2006 12:22:18 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13089 I take this to mean tht the new Reds management team looked at Pena and did not see what all the fuss was about. The assumption is that he'll be a 50 HR guy, but he's undisciplined at the plate. Probably always will be. He's a defensive weak spot, a guy made to be a DH. Time will tell, but I see this trade as a plus. I take this to mean tht the new Reds management team looked at Pena and did not see what all the fuss was about. The assumption is that he’ll be a 50 HR guy, but he’s undisciplined at the plate. Probably always will be. He’s a defensive weak spot, a guy made to be a DH. Time will tell, but I see this trade as a plus.

]]> By: Lucas http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13088 Lucas Tue, 21 Mar 2006 12:20:22 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13088 Something no one has mentioned is Bronson pitched both out of the pen and as a starter for Boston. He could really come in handy if Milton or Wilson return to form and then we have an extra starter. Bronson could move to pen for long relief. As far as WMP's offensive numbers go, consider this: If EE plays regularly he will easily put up similar if not better numbers than WMP would have put up and with a higher avg. I don't see the reds losing much in the way of offense here. The only real problem I have with this trade (and it seems to be the problem most people here have) is seeing Dunn move back to outfield so the Mad Hatter can play first. This is a terrible idea. Something no one has mentioned is Bronson pitched both out of the pen and as a starter for Boston. He could really come in handy if Milton or Wilson return to form and then we have an extra starter. Bronson could move to pen for long relief.

As far as WMP’s offensive numbers go, consider this: If EE plays regularly he will easily put up similar if not better numbers than WMP would have put up and with a higher avg. I don’t see the reds losing much in the way of offense here. The only real problem I have with this trade (and it seems to be the problem most people here have) is seeing Dunn move back to outfield so the Mad Hatter can play first. This is a terrible idea.

]]> By: Tom G http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13086 Tom G Tue, 21 Mar 2006 04:15:48 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13086 I don't buy a lot of the hype on WMP - he doesn't walk enough for me to be able to digest all those K's - but I just have a hard time believing that Bronson Arroyo is the best Krivisky could have gotten for him. I don’t buy a lot of the hype on WMP – he doesn’t walk enough for me to be able to digest all those K’s – but I just have a hard time believing that Bronson Arroyo is the best Krivisky could have gotten for him.

]]> By: Shawn http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13085 Shawn Tue, 21 Mar 2006 02:22:45 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13085 I think Krivsky just trade Jesse Barfield to get Chris Codiroli. He'll live to regret this trade. I think Krivsky just trade Jesse Barfield to get Chris Codiroli. He’ll live to regret this trade.

]]> By: Tom http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13084 Tom Tue, 21 Mar 2006 02:00:11 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13084 Good move by Krivsky. Pena was the weakest link in the OF. Stone glove and weak OBP. Raw power was his only asset. Arroyo greatly bolsters our rotation which now projects to be near league average. The interesting facet to this trade is, he got cash back to cover the difference in salary. So Krivsky has yet to spend the bulk of the $5M that was saved in the Casey deal. So there should still be more moves to come. He still needs upgrades at SP, CL, 1B, and 2B. Later, Tom Good move by Krivsky. Pena was the weakest link in the OF. Stone glove and weak OBP. Raw power was his only asset. Arroyo greatly bolsters our rotation which now projects to be near league average. The interesting facet to this trade is, he got cash back to cover the difference in salary. So Krivsky has yet to spend the bulk of the $5M that was saved in the Casey deal. So there should still be more moves to come. He still needs upgrades at SP, CL, 1B, and 2B.

Later,
Tom

]]> By: Chris http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13083 Chris Mon, 20 Mar 2006 23:28:29 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13083 Some good points, GregD. Though I don't necessarily agree that he'd be below average for a corner OF. BP's PECOTA mean projection for WMP is 18 VORP. That is below average, but only because it's about 40% fewer PAs than the other LFs. His 90% projection, which still only has 492 PAs, gives him a 57.6 VORP, which would've ranked fourth among all LFs (just ahead of Dunn). Durability is the main issue, though. That may be what keeps him from ever getting to where he needs to be. Some good points, GregD. Though I don’t necessarily agree that he’d be below average for a corner OF. BP’s PECOTA mean projection for WMP is 18 VORP. That is below average, but only because it’s about 40% fewer PAs than the other LFs. His 90% projection, which still only has 492 PAs, gives him a 57.6 VORP, which would’ve ranked fourth among all LFs (just ahead of Dunn). Durability is the main issue, though. That may be what keeps him from ever getting to where he needs to be.

]]> By: GregD of Indy http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13082 GregD of Indy Mon, 20 Mar 2006 22:11:22 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13082 I salivate over the HR's and potential, too, but Pena is not an automatic to be an offensive stud. His failure to stick as a regular in 2005 has more to do with his propensity for injuries than it says anything about the Reds. He missed 40 games with injuries in 2005 including 30 days on the DL in may for a quad strain. So, you look at his numbers and the potential to make a trade now, at mid-season, or at the end of the year. No way the Reds pay Dunn, Kearn, Griffey and Pena to all play next year at the salaries they will command. And Pena's WBC decision, right or wrong, likely sealed his fate as the one to go. You have an offer now for Arroyo. Who knows what other offers were out there. You look at Pena's stats. His second half of the season (.224/.290/.401) and his road stats (.232/.272.435) leave a lot to be desired. His aggregate stats look like Alfonso Sorianos, without the high AVG, without the SB's, without the durability, without the ability to play 2nd base. Soriano with all those things does not stack up as nicely to corner OFers as it does to 2nd baseman. Without those "extras", Pena is a below average corner OFer. If you stick with Pena, looking for a mid-season offseason deal, you are screwed if he gets hurt again or performs worse than he did in part-time play last year. Then he would have NO trade value. I salivate over the HR’s and potential, too, but Pena is not an automatic to be an offensive stud. His failure to stick as a regular in 2005 has more to do with his propensity for injuries than it says anything about the Reds. He missed 40 games with injuries in 2005 including 30 days on the DL in may for a quad strain.

So, you look at his numbers and the potential to make a trade now, at mid-season, or at the end of the year. No way the Reds pay Dunn, Kearn, Griffey and Pena to all play next year at the salaries they will command. And Pena’s WBC decision, right or wrong, likely sealed his fate as the one to go.

You have an offer now for Arroyo. Who knows what other offers were out there. You look at Pena’s stats. His second half of the season (.224/.290/.401) and his road stats (.232/.272.435) leave a lot to be desired. His aggregate stats look like Alfonso Sorianos, without the high AVG, without the SB’s, without the durability, without the ability to play 2nd base. Soriano with all those things does not stack up as nicely to corner OFers as it does to 2nd baseman. Without those “extras”, Pena is a below average corner OFer.

If you stick with Pena, looking for a mid-season offseason deal, you are screwed if he gets hurt again or performs worse than he did in part-time play last year. Then he would have NO trade value.

]]> By: al http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13081 al Mon, 20 Mar 2006 22:06:06 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13081 great points by GregD in this thread! i like this move a lot because it's exactly what Castellini said he was going to do: improve now and for the future. Arroyo makes us better right now. his #2 Comp is harang and we could use another harang. but this trade is going to look amazing when we're paying 3 million in 2008 for a fifth starter whose putting up a 4 ERA. Hopefully bailey will be up, and we'll have aquired a top tier starter with the money saved from wilson and milton to go infront of harang and claussen. '08, that's the year we're building for. but right now we should be above .500, and i think it's possible for arroyo to put up a sub 4 ERA with the league switch and the move to a better pitcher's park (over all). great points by GregD in this thread!

i like this move a lot because it’s exactly what Castellini said he was going to do: improve now and for the future.

Arroyo makes us better right now. his #2 Comp is harang and we could use another harang.

but this trade is going to look amazing when we’re paying 3 million in 2008 for a fifth starter whose putting up a 4 ERA. Hopefully bailey will be up, and we’ll have aquired a top tier starter with the money saved from wilson and milton to go infront of harang and claussen. ‘08, that’s the year we’re building for.

but right now we should be above .500, and i think it’s possible for arroyo to put up a sub 4 ERA with the league switch and the move to a better pitcher’s park (over all).

]]> By: Chris http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13080 Chris Mon, 20 Mar 2006 21:38:49 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13080 Pena's "failure to stick as a regular" says a lot more about the Reds than it does Pena. Pena’s “failure to stick as a regular” says a lot more about the Reds than it does Pena.

]]> By: Stevie Sox Fan http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13079 Stevie Sox Fan Mon, 20 Mar 2006 21:27:27 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13079 Speaking as a Sox fan, I'm excited to have Pena and not too disappointed about giving up Arroyo. But that's only because we had seven starting pitchers and no outfield depth. The Reds had the opposite problem - too many outfielders and not enough pitching. Pena has potential but the gaping flaws in his game and his failure to stick as a regular mean that Cincinnati fans should be pretty psyched to get an established starter at a bargain price. Arroyo is now your second-best starter, and when he has his control, he could be your best. While that says more about the Reds staff than it does about Arroyo, it's something to keep in mind. Speaking as a Sox fan, I’m excited to have Pena and not too disappointed about giving up Arroyo. But that’s only because we had seven starting pitchers and no outfield depth. The Reds had the opposite problem – too many outfielders and not enough pitching. Pena has potential but the gaping flaws in his game and his failure to stick as a regular mean that Cincinnati fans should be pretty psyched to get an established starter at a bargain price. Arroyo is now your second-best starter, and when he has his control, he could be your best. While that says more about the Reds staff than it does about Arroyo, it’s something to keep in mind.

]]> By: Chris http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13078 Chris Mon, 20 Mar 2006 21:26:39 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2006/03/20/pena-to-the-sox-for-arroyo/#comment-13078 Good points, Tyler. I am forgetting about Encar. Maybe because Narron kept threatening to give us Aurilia. Good points, Tyler. I am forgetting about Encar. Maybe because Narron kept threatening to give us Aurilia.

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