I thought I heard a quote from Krivsky that they weren’t interested in Weaver because of the money and because they would lose a second round pick in the draft.
I think the latter is probably the more important reason the club did not persue him aggresively if, in fact, they did not.
Could someone explain why they would have lost the draft choice if they know.
Weaver signing with the REDS would have been a huge mistake! He would make Milton’s gopher ball ratio look miniscule in Great American Smallpark. He’s a big flyball pitcher, and the Reds need groundball pitchers in this bandbox.
I could not possibly agree more strongly. Weaver was at least a 50% chance of being an absolute disaster on par with 2005 Milton or Lima. Not to mention the fact that he doesn’t really seem to be a mid-to-small market type of guy.
At $8 million, he’d probably be too expensive, but I think for one year Weaver would’ve been worth a gamble. His career ground/fly ratio almost doubles Milton’s (1.18 vs. 0.60) (and better than Dave Williams’ – 1.05). He did give up a lot of HRs last year, but he hadn’t given up more than 20 since 2000. Wasn’t Casey set to make $8+ million? I’d have rather seen the team plow that money into Weaver rather than the sum of this offseason’s questionable additions.
Clearly not the answer? How was he clearly not the answer? Jeff Weaver in the rotation instead of talking about Belisle, Gosling, or Wilson as the #5 guy would have made a big improvement in what this rotation could have done this year.
It wasn’t about questionable stats with this guy, it was all about the money that the Reds were not willing to spend. At this point in free agency he was willing to do a one year deal. I think a 1 year, less than $10 million deal more than offsets the HR concern, which is the only concern I see in his stats. A one-year blip or a newly developed weakness? It’s not like he commanded a 3 year payroll killing deal like some other pitcher I know on the roster.
Flyball pitcher? Eric Milton has never seen a single-season G/F ratio greater than .68 in his career. Weaver has never been below 1.00 and has a career 1.18 ratio. I don’t understand the Milton-esque disaster comparisons. Can someone please explain it to me? I realize he gave up 35 HR’s last year, but the larger sample of two years in Dodger stadium shows 54 HRs in 68 starts.
If anybody really thinks spending $10mill on WEAVER would have been a great move, I disagree 100%! Whomever we plug into the #5 pitching slot, will have an ERA of 5.00 with approx 8-10 wins, WEAVER included. Only the Santana, Clemens, elite pitchers merit a contract of $10 mill per year…I’d much rather see them spend $10mill on some bullpen help, a decent #2 or #3 starter etc.
The reality is that in today’s market, $8-10 million does not get you a star SP. Only a decent one, like Weaver. Look at Washburn’s deal – $37.5/4yrs, and there are others like it (e.g. Loazia). The demand for 200 IPs at an above-average ERA dictates that.
It may be that many Reds’ fans are suffering from some sort of psychosis, which we are not fully conscious of, resulting from the Milton signing last year.
Maybe like a terrorist threat, Milton has inspired us all to extreme caution. Especially in the current market for pitching, putting a lot of money into one non-top-tier guy causes me to cower in the corner. No pitcher signing is good enough unless it’s an absolute sure thing.
With time, soothing words from Krivsky, and maybe some therapy, we can work through this thing together.
I have no idea who a sure thing is, unless the list begins and ends with Pedro Martinez in 2000. Maybe that’s why I’m gunshy.
However, the report is that Weaver’s deal was for 1 year, $8.1 million. If he would have taken that deal to pitch for the Reds (granted, it seems unlikely given pitchers’ bad feelings about Great American), I would have signed him.
Revision: Weaver was signed by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for 1 year, $8.325 million, with additional endurance-stat bonuses of $600k. His brother Jered Weaver is now in the Angels’ farm system.
Still seems expensive, but a 1-year contract for a free-agent pitcher with any perceived value is a rare thing these days. Even Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson, with injury issues, got multi-year deals.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to mention that sore subject.
Roger Clemens made $18 million last year. Santana is not a free agent yet, so his market price has not been set, but the other “ace” pitchers mentioned are $13-17 million per year, easily.
If you go after an average mid-rotation starter, it’s going to cost you $8-10 million per year. Usually, it also costs you a multi-year commitment. To see that the Angels got that type of guy on a 1-year committment is a good deal that the Reds should have explored.
Just because you sign a guy when you only have 4 starters doesn’t make him your #5 guy automatically. Why would any guy plugged into the Reds #5 slot put up a 5+ ERA? Weaver would easily be the #2 guy on this team behind Harang, then followed by Claussen, Williams, and Milton.
Ok, plug Weaver into the #2 spot and he’s still a 5.08 ERA 10-10 pitcher. Let’s face it, it’s going to be real tough ever getting a top-notch pitcher to pitch in Great American Smallpark. If the REDS had really signed him, I would request season tickets in right field front row so I could sell my nightly Homerun balls on ebay the next day. This team would not be a contender with the Weaver signing, although they could flirt with .500 this year…
Your projections for Weaver in GASP are vastly overstated. Park Factors in Cincinnati are only 10% worse on average than they are in Dodger stadium. Nothing that would make a low 4.11 ERA (Weaver’s 2 years in LA) explode to over 5. That’s closer to a 25% increase.
It’s going to be tough to get a top-notch pitcher here only if the Reds continue to keep the pursestrings tight. Signing Weaver to a 1-yr deal (combined with the Dunn signing) would have went a long way to show future free agents that the Reds are back in the business of paying to bring talent to Cincinnati.
Weaver by himself wouldn’t take this team to the playoffs, BUT Weaver would have put this team in a position to trade FOR improvements in July instead of the annual salary dump for minor leaguers.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
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I thought I heard a quote from Krivsky that they weren’t interested in Weaver because of the money and because they would lose a second round pick in the draft.
I think the latter is probably the more important reason the club did not persue him aggresively if, in fact, they did not.
Could someone explain why they would have lost the draft choice if they know.
Weaver signing with the REDS would have been a huge mistake! He would make Milton’s gopher ball ratio look miniscule in Great American Smallpark. He’s a big flyball pitcher, and the Reds need groundball pitchers in this bandbox.
I could not possibly agree more strongly. Weaver was at least a 50% chance of being an absolute disaster on par with 2005 Milton or Lima. Not to mention the fact that he doesn’t really seem to be a mid-to-small market type of guy.
Good. I want some quality pitching in Cincinnati as much as anyone, but Weaver was clearly not the answer.
At $8 million, he’d probably be too expensive, but I think for one year Weaver would’ve been worth a gamble. His career ground/fly ratio almost doubles Milton’s (1.18 vs. 0.60) (and better than Dave Williams’ – 1.05). He did give up a lot of HRs last year, but he hadn’t given up more than 20 since 2000. Wasn’t Casey set to make $8+ million? I’d have rather seen the team plow that money into Weaver rather than the sum of this offseason’s questionable additions.
Clearly not the answer? How was he clearly not the answer? Jeff Weaver in the rotation instead of talking about Belisle, Gosling, or Wilson as the #5 guy would have made a big improvement in what this rotation could have done this year.
It wasn’t about questionable stats with this guy, it was all about the money that the Reds were not willing to spend. At this point in free agency he was willing to do a one year deal. I think a 1 year, less than $10 million deal more than offsets the HR concern, which is the only concern I see in his stats. A one-year blip or a newly developed weakness? It’s not like he commanded a 3 year payroll killing deal like some other pitcher I know on the roster.
Flyball pitcher? Eric Milton has never seen a single-season G/F ratio greater than .68 in his career. Weaver has never been below 1.00 and has a career 1.18 ratio. I don’t understand the Milton-esque disaster comparisons. Can someone please explain it to me? I realize he gave up 35 HR’s last year, but the larger sample of two years in Dodger stadium shows 54 HRs in 68 starts.
If anybody really thinks spending $10mill on WEAVER would have been a great move, I disagree 100%! Whomever we plug into the #5 pitching slot, will have an ERA of 5.00 with approx 8-10 wins, WEAVER included. Only the Santana, Clemens, elite pitchers merit a contract of $10 mill per year…I’d much rather see them spend $10mill on some bullpen help, a decent #2 or #3 starter etc.
The reality is that in today’s market, $8-10 million does not get you a star SP. Only a decent one, like Weaver. Look at Washburn’s deal – $37.5/4yrs, and there are others like it (e.g. Loazia). The demand for 200 IPs at an above-average ERA dictates that.
It may be that many Reds’ fans are suffering from some sort of psychosis, which we are not fully conscious of, resulting from the Milton signing last year.
Maybe like a terrorist threat, Milton has inspired us all to extreme caution. Especially in the current market for pitching, putting a lot of money into one non-top-tier guy causes me to cower in the corner. No pitcher signing is good enough unless it’s an absolute sure thing.
With time, soothing words from Krivsky, and maybe some therapy, we can work through this thing together.
I’m curious as to what is an “absolute sure thing”?
I have no idea who a sure thing is, unless the list begins and ends with Pedro Martinez in 2000. Maybe that’s why I’m gunshy.
However, the report is that Weaver’s deal was for 1 year, $8.1 million. If he would have taken that deal to pitch for the Reds (granted, it seems unlikely given pitchers’ bad feelings about Great American), I would have signed him.
Revision: Weaver was signed by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for 1 year, $8.325 million, with additional endurance-stat bonuses of $600k. His brother Jered Weaver is now in the Angels’ farm system.
Still seems expensive, but a 1-year contract for a free-agent pitcher with any perceived value is a rare thing these days. Even Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson, with injury issues, got multi-year deals.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to mention that sore subject.
Roger Clemens made $18 million last year. Santana is not a free agent yet, so his market price has not been set, but the other “ace” pitchers mentioned are $13-17 million per year, easily.
If you go after an average mid-rotation starter, it’s going to cost you $8-10 million per year. Usually, it also costs you a multi-year commitment. To see that the Angels got that type of guy on a 1-year committment is a good deal that the Reds should have explored.
Just because you sign a guy when you only have 4 starters doesn’t make him your #5 guy automatically. Why would any guy plugged into the Reds #5 slot put up a 5+ ERA? Weaver would easily be the #2 guy on this team behind Harang, then followed by Claussen, Williams, and Milton.
Ok, plug Weaver into the #2 spot and he’s still a 5.08 ERA 10-10 pitcher. Let’s face it, it’s going to be real tough ever getting a top-notch pitcher to pitch in Great American Smallpark. If the REDS had really signed him, I would request season tickets in right field front row so I could sell my nightly Homerun balls on ebay the next day. This team would not be a contender with the Weaver signing, although they could flirt with .500 this year…
Your projections for Weaver in GASP are vastly overstated. Park Factors in Cincinnati are only 10% worse on average than they are in Dodger stadium. Nothing that would make a low 4.11 ERA (Weaver’s 2 years in LA) explode to over 5. That’s closer to a 25% increase.
It’s going to be tough to get a top-notch pitcher here only if the Reds continue to keep the pursestrings tight. Signing Weaver to a 1-yr deal (combined with the Dunn signing) would have went a long way to show future free agents that the Reds are back in the business of paying to bring talent to Cincinnati.
Weaver by himself wouldn’t take this team to the playoffs, BUT Weaver would have put this team in a position to trade FOR improvements in July instead of the annual salary dump for minor leaguers.