Here’s the article.

Clemens, on the other hand, is the 4th UNluckiest starter. His expected W-L is, gasp, 15-4.

If the determining factor as to who wins a ballgame is runs scored versus runs against then it is obvious that a pitcher controls half of that ratio (Bill James would say less than that; He thinks defense accounts for up to 30% of a pitcher’s value). If the Astros are scoring 3.61 runs a game for Clemens and the Cardinals are putting 5.81 on the scoreboard that really isn’t Clemens fault. So why do we penalize him for it? Didn’t Jerome (or Jeriome) Robertson win something like 15 games with a 5.50 ERA a couple of years ago for Houston? What if him and Clemens were the winningest pitchers in the league that year? would you give Robertson the Cy Young because he was a “winner” or a “gamer”? I know that example is a bit ridiculous, but i think it illustrates the unfair emphasis we put on wins.

And are those 20 innings that Carpenter has pitched really all that valuable? I don’t think so. Clemens has allowed 31 runs this year. Carpenter: 52. So if Clemens pitches 20 more innings would he have to be all that good to be better than Carpenter? Nope. All he would have to do is allow slightly less than one run an inning and he would be the superior pitcher. In fact, he could post an ERA of 7 in those 20 IP and he would be way more valuable.

As to the argument that Clemens has been outpitched 6 times this year. I think Devil addressed that very well. Roger has such a small margin of error in his starts that a bad night when he allows 3(!!!) runs might end up as a loss. But if Carpenter allows 3 he’s sure to win. And we both know that neither guy can control how many runs their teams score.

Just for fun, let’s look at a few examples Clemens’ game log:
May 30: He lost to the Reds after pitching 8 innings and giving up 2 runs.
June 5: He beat St. Louis after giving up 4 runs in 5 IP
Aug 18: Loss at Milwaukee, he gives up 5 runs in 6.1 IP
Aug 23: Loss, San Diego, 8 IP 2 ER

Is there a pattern there? i don’t see one. All i can see from those examples is that he won games he shouldn’t have and lost a couple in which he pitched very well. And you know what, that’s the nature of the “Win” stat. It’s misleading and unfair. But i guess thats baseball for ya’.

But we don’t have to vote that way (i don’t have a vote so i guess it doesn’t matter what i think). We can look at other stats that better reflect a players skill and not the skill (or lack thereof) of his team. VORP, ERA+. Those are stats that better reflect a player’s value to his team.

If the MVP and Cy Young voting was fair, you would see players from last place teams winning the award. Why? Because by definition you are voting for the most valuable player to his team. Not the MVP from a playoff team.

p.s. the Cardinals got hosed in the Series not because their pitching sucked, but because after the first game the entire team had a collective failure of astounding proportions.

Given their respective ERAs, it stands to reason that if Carpenter and Clemens were switched, and Clemens had taken the hill for the Cardinals every fifth day and Carpenter did the same for Houston, that Clemens would have 20 wins right now and Carpenter would be about 10-5.

Wins are the most important thing in baseball – for teams. But an individual pitcher does not have the last word on his own won-lost record, and thusly it is not necessarily reflective of his value or ability.

Carpenter deserves the Cy Young hands down. Sometimes the numbers don’t work as good for a guy as they should, but when the day is over you have to win games. It’s like a closer that has an ERA of less than 1.5, but still blows a few games. You can’t blow saves no matter how low your ERA is, and as a starter your job is to win games period…SoCalRedsFan

If Clemens was guilty, would MLB cover it up?

Are you crazy? When a pitcher gives up 1 run in 7 innings and takes a LOSS! You are saying it is his fault? That is beyond crazy. Chris Carpenter is the 2nd best pitcher in the NL on the one of the best offensive teams in the NL. That is the only reason he has 19-4 record. On the astros he would have a .500 W-L record.

I think we are saying the same thing.