Will Leitch has a great preview of the upcoming season. He picks the Reds to finish third:

The most exciting superstar in the game is a big dumb 6-foot-6 former quarterback prospect for the University of Texas. He strikes out all the time, he has a little bit of a beer gut and he has a hockey fan’s goatee. And he once hit a ball so far out of the Great American Ballpark, it actually ended up in Kentucky. Meet Adam Dunn. He’s gonna hit 60 homers someday. You watch.

The Reds are a fun team to watch, because they score a ton of runs and give up even more. Eric Milton was, by far, the worst free agent signing of the offseason, and the bullpen is terrifying. The Reds are like RBI Baseball used to be; a ton of homers, 15-12 games, always getting your money’s worth. They won’t be very good, but they will always be enjoyable.

So why picked to finish third? Because the NL Central is a much worse division this year than anyone realizes. And Ken Griffey will play at least 130 games. And in the future, we really will all be wearing rocket packs.

Heh. Read the rest here.

Tip of the Reds cap to David at Baseball Musings.

Sounds like this year’s Opening Day festivities won’t be as star-studded as last year’s:

The Reds have announced their lineup of festivities for Monday’s season and home opener against the Mets.

U.S. Representative Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who was recently nominated to join President Bush’s cabinet, will throw out the ceremonial first pitch.

The national anthem will be sung by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Felita Rowe, a vocalist with the Air Force Band of Flight’s “Systems Go” ensemble. Included in the anthem will be a flyover by the Air Force’s B-2 Stealth Bomber.

Cincinnati fireman John Winfrey will sing “God Bless America” during the seventh-inning stretch.

The grand marshal of the 86h Findlay Market Parade will be Bengals running back Rudi Johnson.

Now Danny Graves is happy that he gave up four hits and two runs in one inning yesterday. He thinks it’s a good sign.

I guess.

The Enquirer and the Post each have an article on yesterday’s roster cuts:

More so than any other day this spring, there were some nervous stomachs among players in the Reds’ clubhouse Wednesday morning.

“It was a tough day to come to the ballpark,” said Jacob Cruz, who is gunning for the final spot on the Reds’ bench. “I was telling my wife on the way here, you feel like a turkey the week before Thanksgiving - you don’t know which way to look.”

For another few days at least, Cruz is safe.

Although we’ve already speculated as to what the final roster will look like, here’s a peek into Dan O’Brien’s mind:

“The 25th man is going to come down to, very simply stated, the decision of the staff on what skill set they want for that spot to complement the roster,” said O’Brien. “That’s really going to be dependent on how Dave (Miley) intends to use the lineup early on, what individual might have the best opportunity to help us out.”

There’s no chance it will be Luis Lopez, in my opinion.

Reds made their latest cuts yesterday. Headed to Louisville are Jose Acevedo and Todd Coffey, neither of which surprise me very much, frankly. Acevedo had been terrible this spring, and Coffey had a couple of rough outings lately, so the writing was on the wall.

That leaves the final bullpen spot — which is really the only intrigue left, with respect to the Reds roster construction — to either Matt Belisle or Joe Valentine. It it’s up to me (and it isn’t), I’d give that spot to Belisle. I just don’t trust Valentine’s control, or lack thereof.

Assigned to minor league camp was Jason Romano (woo-hoo!), Bobby Estallela (huh?), and Jeriome Robertson (woo-hoo!).

I’m hearing that Estallela has asked for his unconditional release, as he should. He has no business being anywhere but Cincinnati for Opening Day. I can’t get too worked up about the backup catcher slot (after all, how much is this really going to hurt the team?), but it’s pretty clear that the Reds made a mistake here. Heck, I’d even endorse the Reds carrying a third catcher, if it meant Estallela stayed in the majors, rather than 12 pitchers.

The final roster spot is basically down to Luis Lopez and Jacob Cruz, and no one seriously thinks it will be anyone but Cruz (nor should it be; Cruz is okay for the 25th man on the roster).

The Enquirer also says that Harang has been “named” the #3 starter, whatever that means. Ortiz will move to #4, to “give him more time to recover” from an injury.

I’m really impressed that the trainers have already determined that Ortiz won’t be ready on April 7 (game 3), but will be fine by April 8 (game 4). That kind of precision has been sorely lacking.

Today’s Enquirer says that Miley is going to be using his “regular lineup” for the next few days:

D’Angelo Jimenez, 2B
Adam Dunn, LF
Sean Casey, 1B
Austin Kearns, RF
Ken Griffey Jr., CF
Joe Randa, 3B
Rich Aurilia, SS
Jason LaRue, C

That tells me that Aurilia will be the starter. Lopez will ride pine, as the second infield option behind Ryan Freel.

Marty did a chat with the Enquirer yestserday.

Some of his comments:

I think they will contribute tremendously for a couple reasons: One, I think both these guys can still play. At 33 years old, there’s no doubt Aurilia can come back and have a good year. Randa, he has the kind of steady game that no one has seen here in a few years. I think he’ll hit .280 or better, probably hit 15 home runs, and be good for around 75 RBI. But on top of all that, both of them are quality people; when you’re together for seven months, it is really important to have quality people on your ballclub, and these two guys are quality people.

That’s that “veteran leadership” we’re hearing about and I’d be curious as to why we should believe that Aurila will “come back” and not continue his downward slide?

edog (Mar 29, 2005 12:12:54 PM)
Hello Marty, I keep reading about all the positives coming out of this years camp..veteran signing, pitching, confidence, but was curious, have there been many negatives? if so, what is going to be our toughest to overcome and still contend this year?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:12:54 PM)
Two things concern me: One, the defense. I don’t think this club is real strong up the middle, with all due respect to Jason LaRue and D’Angelo Jimenez and Rich Aurilia, guys that don’t have a lot of range; and then with Griffey, he’s obviously on the downside of his career in terms of the ground he can cover in center. But another thing that concerns me is that so little was done to improve the bench. Wily Mo is capable of breaking open a game in the eighth inning, but he’s also capable of striking out. I’m concerned that they didn’t pay more attention to the bench. Keith Hernandez once told me, “You cannot win a division in this game without a good bench,” and I believe him. So I’m concerned about the defense and the productivity from the bench.

How many teams with a reasonable payroll have a great bench these days?

Guest (Mar 29, 2005 12:14:07 PM)
What is going to be the X-Factor for the Reds this season that most people don’t know about?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:14:07 PM)
If I had to guess, I would say the bullpen. Most people would readily agree that at least on paper, with the additions of Mercker, Weber and Weathers, it’s an improved bullpen. But they HAD to improve, because that was about as bad a bullpen as I’ve ever seen last year.

Wish you could ask a followup for these…like, could we have gotten as effective relief pitchers for less money?

bata (Mar 29, 2005 12:17:18 PM)
In your opinion is D’Angelo Jiminez the right person to start at 2nd?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:17:18 PM)
I think Ryan Freel hurt himself by getting hurt. That really took some pressure off this club, because up until he went down, he was clearly the guy who was best suited to start at second base. I’ve said before, this is a better team when Ryan Freel is playing second base and leading off. That in no way is a negative reflection on D’Angelo Jimenez, but Freel is the one guy who will give you the potential of stealing 40 or more bases IF he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.

ommy (Mar 29, 2005 12:45:25 PM)
Marty do you think that Ryan Freel will eventually take the second base job away from Jiminez?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:45:25 PM)
I think it’s very possible. Again, like it or not, people have to understand that when you invest $2.8 million or whatever they signed Jimenez for, there is going to be a reluctance to sit that guy on the bench, whether it’s justified or not. Now that they have Jimenez under a contract approaching $3 million, you’re going to want that guy to play. It’s human nature want to justify your investment and not admit that you may have made a mistake by giving someone who’s not as good at a particular position, all that money.

That’s what he should have said to the first question…they signed Jimenez for $2.8M, when Freel only makes $400K. Smart signing? Probably not, but once they spent the money, Jimenz was the starter.

Zeek01 (Mar 29, 2005 12:28:45 PM)
I think Bobby Estalella is great. He hits a ton and he throws runners out. What do you think his chances are of making the team? We know that Jason LaRue is the main catcher but what about Javier Valentine? Are they going to keep Valentine just because he can play 1st as well as catcher?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:28:45 PM)
I think Valentin is definitely on the ballclub. Part of that is he’s a switch-hitter and the best side for him is as a lefthanded hitter. Does Bobby Estalella deserve to be on the club? You cannot ask a person to do any more than Bobby Estalella has done in this camp. If you’re going to base it on performance, right now it would appear to be between Jacob Cruz and Bobby Estalella. Cruz has the advantage of having been here last year, but he’s going to strike out a lot. Who know how this will manifest itself once the season begin. If I were making the decisions, I’d have to give the nod to Bobby Estalella.

So, Valentin stinks, but he’s a LH stinker so he makes the team.

redskinalum02 (Mar 29, 2005 12:31:51 PM)
Marty, yet another Adam Dunn strikes out too much question. I have read countless articles discussing how he’s changing his approach somewhat and not letting himself get to two strikes, but just the other night you commented that he continues to take too many close pitches. I know changing his approach will take some time (right, wrong or indifferent), but have you noticed any improvement over the course of the spring?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 12:31:51 PM)
Yes, I have. I think his first 26 at-bats he had struck out only three times, and the strikeouts have been more numerous since then. I know he’s working hard to make better contact. Adam Dunn, even though he struck out 195 times last year, he walked over 100 times last year, so he has a great eye. I’m thrilled to death that he walks that much, but he’s not paid to do that. The most shocking stat of my 31-year career was last year, in 568 at-bats, he did not have one sacrifice fly. If he cut his strikeouts down by 40 or 50, he could probably challenge 60 home runs, that’s how talented he is.

Of course this is before they decided to hit him 2nd. Does this change what “he’s paid to do”? And I’ve heard this sac fly comment so often it makes me want to puke, who cares?

difab4 (Mar 29, 2005 1:00:26 PM)
With the plethera of young talent and veteren leadership we have, who do you think has the best chance of having a breakout year or revitalization of a veteran career?

Marty Brennaman (Mar 29, 2005 1:00:26 PM)
Austin Kearns. And Junior. Assuming, of course, that both of them stay healthy. I don’t think we’ve seen Kearns show us the kind of offensive ability that he has. And I think if Junior stays healthy, he’s capable, as I said before, of re-establishing himself as one of the best players in the game. If Kearns and Griffey both have outstanding years, it’ll be interesting to see where this club is in the standings come the end of the season.

If Kearns and Junior both stay healthy, this team could win 90 games, IMO.

As I prepare to head back to Cincinnati for Opening Day next week, I can’t help but recall my first Opening Day — 1993.

Jose Rijo pitched a whale of a ballgame (8 IP, no runs, no walks, 5 Ks), and Chris Sabo hit a homer. Reds won 2-1. And it snowed much of the day.

What I probably remember most, however, is the mammoth shot that Larry Walker hit off Rob Dibble in the ninth inning. Good times….

MLB.com has a regular “Reds mailbag” feature in which the MLB.com beat writer for the team (Anthony Castrovince) answers questions. Here’s today’s mailbag column, with gems like this:

My question is, will the Cincinnati Reds do good this year? And will they win all their games? — Kristopher A., Milford, Ohio

I don’t know if they’ll be able to win all of their games, Kristopher. That Aug. 12 matchup with the Brewers looks to be a tough one.

Indeed.

Someone better tell John Fay about this:

But general manager Dan O’Brien told me the two are by no means competing for the second base job, even though Freel has made a couple starts at the position during the past week. Jimenez signed a $2.87 million deal in the offseason, and he’s not being paid that kind of cash to be a backup.

So much for Fay’s 2B competition idea.

Finally, here’s the kind of enlightened thinking that is going to have Felipe Lopez sitting squarely on his behind next Monday:

Lopez is an attractive candidate who is playing with a confidence that belies his age. But I think the Reds would be hard-pressed to hand over the reigns to a young guy like Lopez when an experienced vet like Aurilia is on hand. We should know the team’s decision any day now.

I think we already know the team’s decision; it just hasn’t been made official yet.

Gotta love those “experienced vets.” Forget about talent, give me some guy that’s been around a while. Has anyone signed Fred McGriff yet? He’s experienced; he’s also a vet. Sign McGriff now!

Surprise, surprise. All signs point to Felipe Lopez being on the bench next Monday for Opening Day.

From the Enquirer:

The Reds’ next cut is coming on Wednesday. The Reds currently have 32 healthy players in camp.

So seven players face the ax. Wednesday’s cut may not be the final one. The Reds don’t have to set the roster until Saturday, following the final exhibition game in Louisville.

As far as position players are concerned, the Reds really only have one decision. They have to decide whether to keep a third catcher or Jacob Cruz as the 25th man.

General manager Dan O’Brien wouldn’t go that far, saying infielder Luis Lopez and outfielder Jason Romano are still in the running.

A couple of interesting things here. First of all, why keep a third catcher? I’d keep Jason LaRue and Bobby Estallela as my catchers; Estallela has earned it, and frankly, he has an argument to be the starter (not based on spring numbers, but on talent and ability).

If you’re going to keep a third catcher, Javier Valentin isn’t completely useless, since he can play first base, too. But if the Reds need a backup 1B, Adam Dunn can serve that role (which allows Wily Mo Pena an entry to the lineup). My sense, however, is that the Reds are going to keep Valentin as the backup catcher and Estallela will be the odd man out. Just the sense I’m getting….

I don’t have much of a problem keeping Jacob Cruz on the roster. He had a pretty decent season as a pinch hitter last year, and he’s not completely useless as a 25th man. Either way, it doesn’t matter that much, as there won’t be very many ABs wasted on that roster spot.

What in the world could justify the fact that Jason Romano and Luis Lopez are “still in the running?” Romano is completely worthless — Reggie Taylor without the talent. Luis Lopez is roster filler at best, and the Reds don’t have any need for him with Ryan Freel and Felipe Lopez on the roster as backups (yep, I said it; Felipe is a Dave Miley substitute. Absurd).

Here’s more from the article:

Basically, five pitchers are competing for the last of the seven bullpen jobs.

Danny Graves, Ben Weber, David Weathers, Kent Mercker and Ryan Wagner are in. Graves, Weber, Weathers and Mercker are veterans. As long as they were healthy, they were coming north. Wagner earned a spot by going 1-0 with a 1.63 ERA this spring.

Whoever loses out on the fifth starter spot - Josh Hancock or Brandon Claussen - will likely take the sixth bullpen spot. Both are out of options, so the Reds can’t send them to the minors without risking losing them on waivers.

Again, O’Brien wouldn’t commit beyond the four veterans.

“(Wagner) has pitched well,” he said. “But no final decisions have been made regarding any of those individuals.”

Of course, O’Brien and Miley want the veterans. That was certainly never in question. The Dan O’Brien Philosophy: When In Doubt, Screw the Kids.

Not that that is necessarily a bad thing with this bullpen. As for the final spot in the rotation, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Brandon Claussen. After all, what has Josh Hancock done to earn a spot? Nothing, in my opinion, besides the fact that Claussen has spent some time as a touted prospect.

For the final spot in the bullpen, it appears that Jose Acevedo, Todd Coffey, Joe Valentine, Jeriome Robertson and Matt Belisle are in the running.

Forget Robertson. He has no business on this roster, but he’s lefthanded, so he’s just the type of pitcher the Reds will want to keep around. The other four pitchers are all intriguing, for various reasons.

If it’s my call, I keep Coffey around. I like the fact that he throws hard, and I like his K/BB ratio. Plus, he just seems like a good guy.

I’ve been a big Acevedo fan for years, and I’d love to see him stick. I still think he can be a good starter, but he’s had some success out of the pen, and I fear he’s about to get typecast, for lack of a better term. I think he’s going to get squeezed out of the Opening Day roster, but again, if I were making the call, I’d keep him over David Weathers or Josh Hancock.

Joe Valentine throws hard, but needs more work on his control. Enjoy Louisville, Joe. And as for Matt Belisle, I’d probably send him out to start the season, but I’d monitor his progress very closely. He’s an intriguing pitcher, and he’s not very far removed from top prospect status with the Braves.

Lots of fun here, and lots of different options for the Reds. We’ll be watching on Wednesday to see who gets the heave-ho.

I hope Jason Romano is first, for the sake of the club.

So says Josh Katzowitz.

Danny Graves says his strong spring is a good omen for the upcoming season:

But Graves thinks the good spring numbers are an indication of good things to come for him.

“I feel really good,” he said. “I feel like my arm speed is back. I feel like my velocity is better. I feel like I have more movement.”

Graves, a 31-year-old right-hander, has never been one to light up the radar gun. His fastball tops out in the low 90s.

But when he mentions more movement, he’s talking about downward movement on his sinker. That is the key to his success.

“My sinker has been sharper,” he said. “When it’s sharp, you can get away with pitches up. They still top it.”

Graves’ explanation for the added arm speed and velocity is he’s another year removed from the failed attempt to convert him to a starter.

Basically, Graves blames all his problems last year — he was “horrible,” he admits — on spending time in the starting rotation.

However, much like the rest of the team, Graves is optimistic about the team’s prospects this year:

“This is the most excited I’ve been about the beginning of the season in a long time,” he said. “We’ve got the team to compete this year.”

I hope.

From Marc Lancaster’s blog:

Freel 2B
Aurilia SS
Griffey DH
Kearns RF
Valentin 1B
LaRue C
F. Lopez 3B
Romano CF
Kelly LF
(Harang P)

Felipe Lopez starting at 3B. I think it’s clear that Dave Miley has no intention of starting Lopez at SS to begin the season. Very disappointing.