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by Chad Dotson on February 9th, 2010 in 2010 Reds There has been a lot of discussion about the Reds options in left field for the upcoming season. Much of the discussion has been focused on Jonny Gomes and the possibility of obtaining Johnny Damon (because the left fielder must be named Jonny or Johnny, you know). Some people want to see Chris Dickerson get the majority of at-bats out there, and many want Laynce Nix to get some playing time. Heck, some have even suggested Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier be given a shot.
What about Wladimir Balentien?
I admit, I’ve kinda ignored Balentien since he was acquired in a pretty good move by Walt Jocketty late last summer. Frankly, with an OPS+ of 82 in just under 300 ABs last year (between Seattle and Cincinnati), it isn’t like Balentien has done much to make us all sit up and take notice.
For some time now, I’ve been meaning to look a bit closer at Wladimir. After all, he had a good reputation as a prospect, and he’ll just be 25 this year. Might the Reds have an asset on their hands? We’re going to find out this year; Balentien is officially out of options, so he’ll either make the team out of spring training or the Reds will risk losing him.
Balentien ripped through the minor leagues, with outstanding power numbers and adequate, if not-overwhelming on-base skills. He has shown progress with his plate discipline over his career, which is a good sign.
In the majors, of course, Balentien has been overmatched. In 559 ABs, Balentien has posted a dismal 73 OPS+ (655 OPS) with this line: .221/.281/.374 and only 15 homers and 52 RBI. Wins above replacement: 0.8. His contact rate has been abysmal (70%; the MLB average is more than ten percentage points higher), due mostly to his problems with breaking pitches.
That certainly won’t get it done as a major league corner outfielder, even though his defense in LF appears to be decent to good.
Projections for 2010 are somewhat encouraging however, depending on where you look. The most optimistic is the CHONE projection, which sees Balentien putting up an 829 OPS on the strength of a .265/.342/.487 line, with 20 homers. CHONE also sees 2.4 wins above replacement, which isn’t a bad number at all for a 25-year-old (and that’s as good or better than any of the other LF options).
Marcel, on the other hand, projects Balentien for .240/.306/.395 with 10 homers. Other projections are between those two extremes (all of these projections are based on part-time duty, 300-375 AB).
Balentien hits right-handed, so you would think it would be natural to explore a platoon with a lefty (Nix or Dickerson). Not so fast, my friend. As noted by FanGraphs, Balentien actually has a reverse platoon-split; he’s better against right-handed pitchers!
The more I look at Balentien’s career, the more I think he could be a realistic option as a starting major league left fielder. He’s still a bit of an enigma to me, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start off well, get a bunch of ABs as Dusty Baker tries to ride the hot hand, and really jump-start a decent major league career.
On the other hand, I could also see him swinging and missing a ton early and getting buried on the bench, destined to become the next Wily Mo Pena.
Personally, I hope he gets a realistic shot to be part of the left field conversation. He could be a big surprise, especially if he has made progress against breaking stuff.
Your thoughts?
by Chad Dotson on February 8th, 2010 in 2010 Reds, RNTV, Reds Fest
by Chad Dotson on February 7th, 2010 in Photoblogging, Reds - General, Reds Fest Okay, I’ve finally uploaded some of the photos I took at Reds Fest. I know it was two months ago…get off my back!!!
I’m not particularly happy with most of these; the lighting in the room was terrible for photographs in most places. They do, however, give you an idea of what Reds Fest is all about if you haven’t been. It was a blast, I gotta admit.
Some of my favorites for you to look for:
–The line for photos with Drew Stubbs juxtaposed with the line for Justin Lehr. I almost got my picture snapped with Lehr just because I felt sorry for the guy. We love ya, Justin!
–Johnny Cueto and Daniel Ray Herrera goofing around.
–Chuck Harmon. Class act.
–A Reds blogger with a nervous smile getting his picture taken with Reds manager Dusty Baker, Dusty’s arm draped over his shoulder. We’re BFFs!
Okay, enjoy….
UPDATE: Individual pictures under the fold, for those who can’t view the slideshow above….
Continue reading RedsFest Photos
by Tom Diesman on February 6th, 2010 in 2010 Reds Mark Sheldon reports that the Reds have not made any progress on getting Jonny Gomes signed to the minor league deal they were supposedly working on. He also adds that if the Reds do not sign Gomes, they have no plans to pursue any other external options for the LF vacancy and will go with in-house options of Balentien, Dickerson, Nix, Heisey, and Frazier.
I’m probably in the minority, but I would have offered Gomes arbitration back in December and he would never have been off of the Reds roster. I would also have him penciled in to be the starting LF and the cleanup hitter.
Given that, I’m all right with the path they’ve taken, but only if Balentien/Heisey/Frazier will be Reds primary starters in LF next season. I really don’t have much faith in them following through on committing to these young players in LF, given that they keep ushering in 30+ year old veterans on the decline rather than playing the young players they have.
I fully expect if they are not able to get Gomes to come in on the cheap that there will be a couple of Jacque Jones-type signings and Dusty will run them out there every day since he does love him a veteran player.
by Chad Dotson on February 5th, 2010 in 2010 Reds Every year, some analyst — be it Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal — picks the Reds as the trendy “surprise contender for the upcoming season.” Seriously, I think the Reds have been tarred with that label almost every year over the recent “lost decade.” And every year, what happens?
Right, the Reds lose and lose and lose. And Chad’s hair gets thinner and thinner and thinner. And Chad beats his head against the wall until he begins to refer to himself in the third person.
I tire of it.
However, I’m just as guilty as the next guy of getting all optimistic again every spring. Now, guess what? Yep, right on cue, here’s Dave Cameron — one of my favorite baseball writers — over at FanGraphs:
Pretty much every year, there’s a team that the projection systems are optimistic about, relative to the general feel of baseball fans and analysts at large. This year, it looks like that team may be the Reds, who haven’t been seriously talked about as contenders by too many folks, but who look like they could be pretty good on paper.
Despite winning just 78 games last year, there’s quite a bit of talent on the roster. Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips are established All-Star caliber players, while Joey Votto certainly looks like a guy who should be able to perform at that kind of level, given how well he played in 2009. Beyond just those three, the roster is littered with upside. …
The Reds have the makings of a pretty good team in 2010. We shouldn’t be all that surprised to find them right in the thick of things come September.
Go read the entire post; it’s enough to make you feel all warm inside.
by Chad Dotson on February 5th, 2010 in 2010 Reds, Minors, RN Radio, Spotlight Players Bill Lack takes the reins this week for an engaging discussion with Cincinnati Reds prospect, and Redleg Nation Spotlight Player, Matt Klinker. It’s another action-packed thrill-ride episode of the Redleg Nation Radio podcast! Or something like that.
You can listen with the player at the bottom of this post or right-click here to download the mp3 file to listen at your leisure. For links to all previous episodes of Redleg Nation Radio, check out the podcast’s home page.
To subscribe via iTunes, click here: 
For the RSS feed, click here: 
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by Chad Dotson on February 4th, 2010 in Reds - General I think the Reds should’ve been number one on this list, but I’ll take #3.
(Sorry; I know it’s not as exciting as I’ve made it sound.)
by Bill Lack on February 4th, 2010 in Minors Doing a 2009 wrapup/pre-ST interview next week with our other Spotlight Player, Logan Parker and am soliciting questions from our readers to put to Logan.
Remember, these guys are our friends and our guests and I attempt to treat them as such, thus won’t ask questions that will potentially cause them problems with the organization.
Remember, we are not journalists (and don’t pretend to be)…we’re fans with some access.
by Chad Dotson on February 4th, 2010 in 2009 Reds, Willy Taveras OBP Watch The Wee Willy Taveras era in Cincinnati is, mercifully, over. One of our loyal readers, however, pointed me to this post at FanGraphs that kinda sums up what we went through last year:
Willy Taveras is jobless. Not for too long, since the A’s will either lose him on waivers — not sure lose is the right word here — or he could find himself in Triple-A. His employment in limbo stems, in large part, because his on-base percentage was .275 last season. Here’s some food for thought. Zack Greinke was pretty much the best pitcher in the American League last season. Greinke’s on-base percentage against was .276. That means, Taveras got on base less against all pitchers faced than the rest of baseball did against the league’s best pitcher. …
It does surprise me that Taveras racked up nearly 400 plate appearances as the Reds’ leadoff man.
I guess there’s nothing like starting every game by facing Zack Greinke.
Heh.
(We can laugh about it now, right? Right?)
by Bill Lack on February 3rd, 2010 in 2010 Reds, Reds - General From Mark Sheldon:
The good news…
The wrist has passed all of the tests, and there is nothing holding back Bruce in his workouts.
“It’s felt fine and like [the injury] never happened,” Bruce said. “I’ve had no pain; it’s nonexistent. For a little bit, when I came back, it was still tight, but it’s fine now.”
Glad to hear the wrist isn’t going to be an issue.
On his dealing with the adversity of last season:
“The adversity I dealt with last year was pretty serious,” said Bruce, who will turn 23 on April 3. “Everyone should deal with adversity, and I’m going to use it as a positive to come back this year and be the player that I know I can be.”
It was the first time Bruce experienced such a prolonged slump or dealt with a severe injury. After all, this was the top rated prospect in all of baseball in 2008, who debuted to huge fanfare in May of that season and delivered. He reached base in each of his first six plate appearances and collected 11 hits in his first 19 at-bats. Obviously, that pace was impossible to maintain, but Bruce was mostly solid the rest of the season as he became accustomed to the ups and downs of hitting in the big leagues.
Electing not to play winter ball and make up at-bats from the 57 games he missed last year, Bruce instead went home to Beaumont, Texas, and decompressed. Eventually, he resumed lifting weights, running, throwing and — beginning about a month ago — hitting.
His OPS+ last year was 100. That’s average…it’s not like he was a black hole. Do we want better? Sure, but he’ll be 23 around Opening Day and starting his 3rd year in the Bigs….give him a break.
Then there’s this…
Although manager Dusty Baker would not make guarantees at last season’s end, all indications are that Bruce is secure as the Reds’ regular right fielder. The club made no outfielder acquisitions that would threaten his role.
“Make no guarantees”? “Threaten his role”? WTF, over? Mark, what are you writing, brother?
by Chad Dotson on February 3rd, 2010 in Reds - General I had hoped I would be able to attend the Reds fantasy camp this year, but circumstances conspired to prevent my attendance. My fingers are still crossed that I’ll be able to go next year.
For now, I’m living vicariously through Slyde, who is having a great time, evidently. I’m jealous!
by Chad Dotson on February 3rd, 2010 in 2010 Reds Sure, we all do!
The Reds are holding a lottery for Joe Fan to have the chance to pick up Opening Day tickets. I’ll say this: the timing is perfect. I’ve never seen you guys so excited.
(Although I gotta say, it makes me really sad that our expectations have dropped so low that getting rid of a crappy player and signing a sucky shortstop has made everyone excited.  Is this really the best we can hope for from our beloved Redlegs?)
by Tom Diesman on February 2nd, 2010 in 2010 Reds Mark Sheldon is reporting that the Reds have signed 35-year-old shortstop Orlando to a $3M contract for 2010, that includes a $3M option for 2011 and a $1M buyout. It is not yet known if the 2011 player option is a club or a player option. This move will also require that somebody be removed from the 40 man roster. No word on this yet.
There is your opening day SS and two-hole hitter. Let’s hope that Cabrera’s -13.7 UZR/150 last season is not the first sign that he has lost a step at SS and that he can return to the league average OBP he put up in 2007-2008 rather that the poor .316 OBP he put up last season. This kind of feels like Alex Gonzalez part two, doesn’t it? Hopefully it is a club option and we will have less chance of getting stuck with him for a second year.
Does anyone think this may be the Reds opportunity to make a statement and dump Willy Taveras? I don’t think they will dump him at all, but if they do, I think it will be just before they break camp in Arizona.
Will Paul Janish make the opening day roster now? I think it will be awfully hard to keep the light hitting SS as one of the backup infielders and I expect that he will not make the opening day team. He will have a tough time beating out Rosales, Sutton, Frazier, Burke, and Cairo for one of the two backup IF spots.
UPDATE: (By Bill Lack) From today’s Enquirer by John Erardi:
On his contract:
Cabrera will officially make $2.02 million this season — $770,000 in base salary and $1.25 million in bonus – but will make another $1 million as a buyout for 2011 if he wants to stay and the Reds don’t want him. This is what’s known as a “$4 million mutual option” for 2011. If he declines the option to stay here in 2011, his buyout is $550,000.
So, maximum it’s a $3.02M deal, minimum it’s a $2.57M deal.
Much as the Reds love Janish’s glove – and intend to get him as much playing time as they possibly can – they believe Cabrera’s offense will offset the defensive dropoff with Janish not being at shortstop full time. But the statistical analysts say that if Cabrera’s defense wnds up dropping from last year, his addition to the Reds is at at best a wash.
“The description applied to Cabrera, ’can hit a little,’ is the key,” said Greg Gajus, a statistical analyst. “Cabrera isn’t really a league average hitter; never has been. He has a low walk rate, and not much power. He’s the type of hitter than has to hit .300 to help much. If he hits .260, it’s a disaster.
“There aren’t many good-fielding 35-year-old shortstops,” he added. “That projected (dropoff) in defense wipes out most of the substantial difference in offense. I’d call him a small upgrade at best.”
So, a small upgrade for $2.5M – $3M…therein lies my problem with this signing.
From the MercuryNews.com site:
If they can’t work a trade for Taveras and he goes unclaimed on waivers, the A’s likely will release him and eat the majority of his $4 million salary for 2010. They saved $1.7 million by trading Miles.
I thought Miles was making less than Taveras? How do they save $1.7M?
by Chad Dotson on February 2nd, 2010 in 2010 Reds I just wanna ramble a bit about recent events. Is that alright?
The last few weeks have been more interesting, from a Reds hot stove perspective, than we’ve seen in years. Do I agree with every move Walt Jocketty has made? No. Do I think the Reds are better now than they were a few weeks ago? Yeah, probably. That’s a good thing.
Continue reading Random Musings
by Chad Dotson on February 1st, 2010 in 2010 Reds Willy Taveras has actually been traded:
The Cincinnati Reds acquired infielder Aaron Miles in a trade with the Oakland Athletics, swapping young infielder Adam Rosales and outfielder Willy Taveras.
The Reds also will get a player to be named or cash, according to sources.
Aaron Miles stinks, and I like Rosales’ chances of becoming an effective backup in the major leagues…but Willy Taveras is gone! Our long national nightmare is over!
Miles is actually a lot like Taveras, in some ways. Both guys were non-tendered, then signed to absurd two-year contracts (Miles was given his contract by the Cubs). Miles and Drew Sutton are likely the backup infielders on the Reds, and with the roster as it currently stands, Dusty Baker won’t be tempted to play Miles too often. (With Taveras on the roster, there was always the chance that he’d play too much.)
My guess is that this signals an imminent Jonny Gomes signing.
A final instant-reaction: I don’t know why, but I love the symmetry of fan-favorite Rosales and fan-least-favorite Taveras involved in the same deal.
UPDATE: Heh. Within minutes of making the trade, the Athletics designated Taveras for assignment. Talk about wasting no time.
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